• Energy Research

This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March–May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15–55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south-eastern parts of Ethiopia extending to the south-west covering Somali and Oromia regions. Similar trends are also observed in the greatest 3-, 5- and 10-day rainfall amounts. Changes in the consecutive dry and wet days showed that consecutive wet days during Belg and Kiremt seasons decreased significantly in many areas in Ethiopia while consecutive dry days increased. The consistency in the trends over large spatial areas confirms the robustness of the trends and serves as a basis for understanding the projected changes in the climate. These results were discussed in relation to their significance to agriculture.

Developing cultivars with traits that can enhance and sustain productivity under climate change will be an important climate smart adaptation option. The modified CSM-CERES-Pearl millet model was used to assess yield gains by modifying plant traits determining crop maturity duration, potential yield and tolerance to drought and heat in pearl millet cultivars grown at six locations in arid (Hisar, Jodhpur, Bikaner) and semi-arid (Jaipur, Aurangabad and Bijapur) tropical India and two locations in semi-arid tropical West Africa (Sadore in Niamey and Cinzana in Mali). In all the study locations the yields decreased when crop maturity duration was decreased by 10% both in current and future climate conditions; however, 10% increase in crop maturity significantly (p<0.05) increased yields at Aurangabad and Bijapur, but not at other locations. Increasing yield potential traits by 10% increased yields under both the climate situations in India and West Africa. Drought tolerance imparted the lowest yield gain at Aurangabad (6%), the highest at Sadore (30%) and intermediate at the other locations under current climate. Under climate change the contribution of drought tolerance to the yield of cultivars either increased or decreased depending upon changes in rainfall of the locations. Yield benefits of heat tolerance substantially increased under climate change at most locations, having the greatest effects at Bikaner (17%) in India and Sadore (13%) in West Africa. Aurangabad and Bijapur locations had no yield advantage from heat tolerance due to their low temperature regimes. Thus drought and heat tolerance in pearl millet increased yields under climate change in both the arid and semi-arid tropical climates with greater benefit in relatively hotter environments. This study will assists the plant breeders in evaluating new promising plant traits of pearl millet for adapting to climate change at the selected locations and other similar environments.

SUMMARYClimate risk assessment in cropping is generally undertaken in a top-down approach using climate records while critical farmer experience is often not accounted for. In the present study, set in south India, farmer experience of climate risk is integrated in a bottom-up participatory approach with climate data analysis. Crop calendars are used as a boundary object to identify and rank climate and weather risks faced by smallhold farmers. A semi-structured survey was conducted with experienced farmers whose income is predominantly from farming. Interviews were based on a crop calendar to indicate the timing of key weather and climate risks. The simple definition of risk as consequence × likelihood was used to establish the impact on yield as consequence and chance of occurrence in a 10-year period as likelihood. Farmers’ risk experience matches well with climate records and risk analysis. Farmers’ rankings of ‘good’ and ‘poor’ seasons also matched up well with their independently reported yield data. On average, a ‘good’ season yield was 1·5–1·65 times higher than a ‘poor’ season. The main risks for paddy rice were excess rains at harvesting and flowering and deficit rains at transplanting. For cotton, farmers identified excess rain at harvest, delayed rains at sowing and excess rain at flowering stages as events that impacted crop yield and quality. The risk assessment elicited from farmers complements climate analysis and provides some indication of thresholds for studies on climate change and seasonal forecasts. The methods and analysis presented in the present study provide an experiential bottom-up perspective and a methodology on farming in a risky rainfed climate. The methods developed in the present study provide a model for end-user engagement by meteorological agencies that strive to better target their climate information delivery.

In this study, we assessed the possible impacts of climate variability and change on growth and performance of maize using multi-climate, multi-crop model approaches built on Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols in five different agro-ecological zones (AEZs) of Embu County in Kenya and under different management systems. Adaptation strategies were developed that are locally relevant by identifying a set of technologies that help to offset potential impacts of climate change on maize yields. Impacts and adaptation options were evaluated using projections by 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Two widely used crop simulation models, Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) and Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was used to simulate the potential impacts of climate change on maize. Results showed that 20 CMIP5 models are consistent in their projections of increased surface temperatures with different magnitude. Projections by HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, and MIROC-ESM tend to be higher than the rest of 17 CMIP5 climate models under both emission scenarios. The projected increase in minimum temperature (Tmin) which ranged between 2.7 and 5.8°C is higher than the increase in maximum temperature (Tmax) that varied between 2.2 and 4.8°C by end century under RCP 8.5. Future projections in rainfall are less certain with high variability projections by GFDL-ESM2G, MIROC5, and NorESM1-M suggest 8 to 25% decline in rainfall, while CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-MR and BNU-ESM suggested more than 85% increase in rainfall under RCP 8.5 by end of 21st century. Impacts of current and future climatic conditions on maize yields varied depending on the AEZs, soil type, crop management and climate change scenario. Impacts are largely negative in the low potential AEZs such as Lower Midlands (LM4 and LM5) compared with the high potential AEZs Upper Midlands (UM2 and UM3). However, impacts of climate change are largely positive across all AEZs and management conditions when CO2 fertilization is included. Using the differential impacts of climate change, a strategy to adapt maize cultivation to climate change in all the five AEZs was identified by consolidating those practices that contributed to increased yields under climate change. We consider this approach as more appropriate to identify operational adaptation strategies using readily available technologies that contribute positively under both current and future climatic conditions. This approach when adopted in strategic manner will also contribute to further strengthen the development of adaptation strategies at national and local levels. The methods and tools validated and applied in this assessment allowed estimating possible impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies which can provide valuable insights and guidance for adaptation planning.

The semi-arid tropical (SAT) regions of India are suffering from low productivity which may be further aggravated by anticipated climate change. The present study analyzes the spatial variability of climate change impacts on groundnut yields in the Anantapur district of India and examines the relative contribution of adaptation strategies. For this purpose, a web based decision support tool that integrates crop simulation model and Geographical Information System (GIS) was developed to assist agronomic decision making and this tool can be scalable to any location and crop. The climate change projections of five global climate models (GCMs) relative to the 1980-2010 baseline for Anantapur district indicates an increase in rainfall activity to the tune of 10.6 to 25% during Mid-century period (2040-69) with RCP 8.5. The GCMs also predict warming exceeding 1.4 to 2.4°C by 2069 in the study region. The spatial crop responses to the projected climate indicate a decrease in groundnut yields with four GCMs (MPI-ESM-MR, MIROC5, CCSM4 and HadGEM2-ES) and a contrasting 6.3% increase with the GCM, GFDL-ESM2M. The simulation studies using CROPGRO-Peanut model reveals that groundnut yields can be increased on average by 1.0%, 5.0%, 14.4%, and 20.2%, by adopting adaptation options of heat tolerance, drought tolerant cultivars, supplemental irrigation and a combination of drought tolerance cultivar and supplemental irrigation respectively. The spatial patterns of relative benefits of adaptation options were geographically different and the greatest benefits can be achieved by adopting new cultivars having drought tolerance and with the application of one supplemental irrigation at 60days after sowing.

Climate variability and change pose ever-growing challenges in the semiarid tropics, where majority of the population depend on climate-dependent activities such as agriculture. This has rendered these countries more vulnerable to climate change–induced variability. In spite of the uncertainties about anticipated magnitude of climate change on regional scale, an assessment of the possible changes in key climatic elements to identify most vulnerable locations becomes important for formulating adaptation strategies. This study compiles the existing knowledge about observed climate and projections of future change in Telangana state of India. The agriculture in this semiarid state has to adapt to changes in mean climate variables to increased variability with greater risk of extreme weather events, such as prolonged dry spells. Based on climatic vulnerability assessment, we found that the number of vulnerable mandals (currently 28%) will be increased to 45% during early century and to 59% by mid-century. As per the climate exposure index scores, Jogulamba-Gadwal district was found to be most sensitive. Overall, vulnerability index scores indicated that Adilabad, Nagarkurnool, Nalgonda, Peddapalli, Suryapet, Wanaparthy, and Yadadri are extremely vulnerable districts in the state. The ranking of vulnerable mandals in each district envisages the need for a holistic approach for each mandal or a group of mandals to reduce their sensitivity though implementation of site-specific adaptation strategies to minimize climate-related shocks not only in agriculture but also in other sectors.

L'arachide est l'une des sources importantes d'huile, de nourriture et de fourrage en Inde. Il est cultivé dans des agro-écosystèmes marginaux arides et semi-arides avec de grandes fluctuations de rendement en raison de la variabilité spatiale des précipitations et du sol. Le changement climatique, qui devrait augmenter la variabilité des précipitations intra- et interannuelles, limitera davantage l'économie de l'arachide en Inde, en plus des changements économiques, sociaux et politiques mondiaux et nationaux. À travers cette étude, nous visons à examiner les impacts biophysiques et socio-économiques du changement climatique sur la production et les prix de l'arachide afin de fournir une analyse complète de la manière dont l'agriculture et le système alimentaire seront affectés. En utilisant les données climatiques projetées pour l'Inde, nous avons estimé les impacts biophysiques du changement climatique sur l'arachide au milieu du siècle en utilisant un scénario représentatif de la voie de concentration (RCP 8.5). Nous avons examiné les impacts des changements dans la population et le revenu en plus des facteurs environnementaux sur la productivité de l'arachide. Il s'agit de souligner l'importance d'une évaluation holistique des facteurs biophysiques et socio-économiques pour mieux comprendre les impacts du changement climatique. Les projections modélisées montrent que d'ici 2050, le changement climatique dans un scénario optimiste entraînera un changement de −2,3 à 43,2 % des rendements de l'arachide dans diverses régions de l'Inde, lorsque le climat seul a été pris en compte. Mais la variation des rendements de l'arachide variait de -0,9% à 16,2% lorsque les variables économiques (population et revenu) et de marché (élasticités, commerce, etc.) étaient également prises en compte. De même, dans un scénario de changement climatique pessimiste, la variation en pourcentage des rendements de l'arachide serait de −33,7 à 3,4 avec seulement le climat pris en compte et de −11,2 à 4,3 avec les variables économiques et de marché supplémentaires incluses. Cela indique la sensibilité des impacts du changement climatique aux différences de facteurs socio-économiques. Cette étude souligne la nécessité de prendre en compte les effets du marché pour acquérir une compréhension holistique de l'impact des facteurs économiques et environnementaux sur les systèmes et les économies alimentaires agricoles. El cacahuete es una de las principales fuentes de aceite, alimentos y forraje en la India. Se cultiva en agroecosistemas marginales áridos y semiáridos con amplias fluctuaciones de rendimiento debido a la variabilidad espacial de las precipitaciones y el suelo. El cambio climático, que se prevé que aumente la variabilidad de las precipitaciones intra e interanuales, limitará aún más la economía de los cacahuetes en la India, además de los cambios económicos, sociales y políticos mundiales e internos. A través de este estudio pretendemos examinar los impactos biofísicos y socioeconómicos del cambio climático en la producción y los precios del cacahuete para proporcionar un análisis exhaustivo de cómo se verán afectados la agricultura y el sistema alimentario. Utilizando datos climáticos proyectados para la India, estimamos los impactos biofísicos del cambio climático en el maní a mediados de siglo utilizando el escenario de la vía de concentración representativa (RCP 8.5). Examinamos los impactos de los cambios en la población y los ingresos, además de los factores ambientales, en la productividad del cacahuete. Esto es para resaltar la importancia de la evaluación holística de los factores biofísicos y socioeconómicos para comprender mejor los impactos del cambio climático. Las proyecciones modeladas muestran que para 2050, el cambio climático en un escenario optimista dará como resultado un cambio de -2.3 a 43.2% en los rendimientos de cacahuetes en varias regiones de la India cuando se tuvo en cuenta el clima por sí solo. Pero el cambio en los rendimientos del cacahuete varió de -0,9% a 16,2% cuando también se consideraron las variables económicas (población e ingresos) y de mercado (elasticidades, comercio, etc.). Del mismo modo, en un escenario de cambio climático pesimista, el cambio porcentual en los rendimientos de los cacahuetes sería de -33,7 a 3,4 con solo el clima incluido y de -11,2 a 4,3 con las variables económicas y de mercado adicionales incluidas. Esto indica la sensibilidad de los impactos del cambio climático a las diferencias en los factores socioeconómicos. Este estudio destaca la necesidad de tener en cuenta los efectos del mercado para obtener una comprensión holística de cómo los factores económicos y ambientales afectan los sistemas y las economías agroalimentarias. Groundnut is one of the significant sources of oil, food, and fodder in India. It is grown in marginal arid and semi-arid agro-ecosystems with wide yield fluctuations due to spatial variability of rainfall and soil. Climate change, which is predicted to increase the intra- and inter-annual rainfall variability will further constrain the groundnut economy in India besides the global and domestic economic, social and policy changes. Through this study we aim to examine the biophysical and social economic impacts of climate change on groundnut production and prices to provide a comprehensive analysis of how agriculture and the food system will be affected. Using projected climate data for India, we estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change on groundnut during mid-century using representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. We examined the impacts of changes in population and income besides environmental factors on groundnut productivity. This is to highlight the importance of holistic assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic factors to better understand climate change impacts. Modelled projections show that by 2050, climate change under an optimistic scenario will result in −2.3 to 43.2% change in groundnut yields across various regions in India when climate alone was factored in. But the change in groundnut yields ranged from −0.9% to 16.2% when economic (population and income) and market variables (elasticities, trade, etc.) were also considered. Similarly, under pessimistic climate change scenario, the percent change in groundnut yields would be −33.7 to 3.4 with only the climate factored in and −11.2 to 4.3 with the additional economic and market variables included. This indicates the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic factors. This study highlights the need to take into account market effects to gain a holistic understanding of how economic and environmental factors impact agricultural food systems and economies. يعد الفول السوداني أحد المصادر المهمة للنفط والغذاء والعلف في الهند. ويزرع في النظم الإيكولوجية الزراعية الهامشية القاحلة وشبه القاحلة مع تقلبات واسعة في الغلة بسبب التباين المكاني لهطول الأمطار والتربة. سيؤدي تغير المناخ، الذي من المتوقع أن يزيد من تقلب هطول الأمطار داخل السنة وفيما بينها، إلى زيادة تقييد اقتصاد الفول السوداني في الهند إلى جانب التغيرات الاقتصادية والاجتماعية والسياسية العالمية والمحلية. من خلال هذه الدراسة، نهدف إلى دراسة الآثار الاقتصادية الفيزيائية الحيوية والاجتماعية لتغير المناخ على إنتاج الفول السوداني وأسعاره لتقديم تحليل شامل لكيفية تأثر الزراعة والنظام الغذائي. باستخدام البيانات المناخية المتوقعة للهند، قدرنا الآثار الفيزيائية الحيوية لتغير المناخ على الفول السوداني خلال منتصف القرن باستخدام سيناريو مسار التركيز التمثيلي (RCP 8.5). درسنا آثار التغيرات في السكان والدخل إلى جانب العوامل البيئية على إنتاجية الفول السوداني. هذا لتسليط الضوء على أهمية التقييم الشامل للعوامل الفيزيائية الحيوية والاجتماعية والاقتصادية لفهم آثار تغير المناخ بشكل أفضل. تُظهر التوقعات النموذجية أنه بحلول عام 2050، سيؤدي تغير المناخ في ظل سيناريو متفائل إلى -2.3 إلى 43.2 ٪ تغيير في غلة الفول السوداني في مختلف المناطق في الهند عندما يتم أخذ المناخ وحده في الاعتبار. لكن التغيير في غلة الفول السوداني تراوح من -0.9 ٪ إلى 16.2 ٪ عند النظر أيضًا في المتغيرات الاقتصادية (السكان والدخل) والسوق (المرونة والتجارة وما إلى ذلك). وبالمثل، في ظل سيناريو تغير المناخ المتشائم، ستكون النسبة المئوية للتغير في غلة الفول السوداني -33.7 إلى 3.4 مع أخذ المناخ في الاعتبار فقط و -11.2 إلى 4.3 مع تضمين المتغيرات الاقتصادية والسوقية الإضافية. يشير هذا إلى حساسية تأثيرات تغير المناخ للاختلافات في العوامل الاجتماعية والاقتصادية. تسلط هذه الدراسة الضوء على الحاجة إلى مراعاة آثار السوق لاكتساب فهم شامل لكيفية تأثير العوامل الاقتصادية والبيئية على نظم الأغذية الزراعية واقتصاداتها.