• Energy Research

Abstract Background The global human footprint has fundamentally altered wildfire regimes, creating serious consequences for human health, biodiversity, and climate. However, it remains difficult to project how long-term interactions among land use, management, and climate change will affect fire behavior, representing a key knowledge gap for sustainable management. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 99 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. Results Respondents indicated some direct human influence on wildfire since at least ~ 12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime change until around 5,000 years BP, for most study regions. Responses suggested a ten-fold increase in the frequency of fire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in frequency, severity, and size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regimes showed different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher warming scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, while recognizing that management options are constrained under higher emission scenarios. Conclusion The influence of humans on wildfire regimes has increased over the last two centuries. The perspective gained from past fires should be considered in land and fire management strategies, but novel fire behavior is likely given the unprecedented human disruption of plant communities, climate, and other factors. Future fire regimes are likely to degrade key ecosystem services, unless climate change is aggressively mitigated. Expert assessment complements empirical data and modeling, providing a broader perspective of fire science to inform decision making and future research priorities.

Abstract A palaeolimnological study, covering the last c. 12,000 years, was conducted in a small subalpine lake located in the Alps to study climate change impacts on carbon flows through food webs in small lakes. We used analysis of sedimentary pigments and carbon stable isotopic composition of chironomid remains (δ13CHC) to reconstruct past dynamics of phytoplankton community and carbon sources sustaining benthic consumers. Chironomid biomass was sustained by a combination of allochthonous, autochthonous and CH4‐derived organic matters, and their relative contributions were correlated to changes in temperature. Relatively high terrestrial contributions to chironomid biomass were observed during period of the Holocene when in‐lake production was low. Relatively high incorporation of CH4‐derived carbon to chironomid biomass was found during anoxic events co‐occurring with the Holocene thermal maximum. Results were then compared with those collected in a small boreal lake in Estonia. We tested the hypothesis that responses in carbon flows through benthic food web to past climate change would be similar between these lakes. We found a negative correlation between δ13CHC values of both lakes and inferred air temperature, suggesting that temperature was the major driver to different food sources being incorporated into chironomid biomass. Our study demonstrated that air temperature was the principal driver of the energy flows through benthic food web in the studied small lakes. We conjectured that carbon cycling in food webs of small lakes might be strongly sensitive to climate change.