• Energy Research

AbstractClimate change is increasingly impacting ecosystems globally. Understanding adaptive genetic diversity and whether it will keep pace with projected climatic change is necessary to assess species’ vulnerability and design efficient mitigation strategies such as assisted adaptation. Kelp forests are the foundations of temperate reefs globally but are declining in many regions due to climate stress. A lack of knowledge of kelp's adaptive genetic diversity hinders assessment of vulnerability under extant and future climates. Using 4245 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we characterized patterns of neutral and putative adaptive genetic diversity for the dominant kelp in the southern hemisphere (Ecklonia radiata) from ~1000 km of coastline off Western Australia. Strong population structure and isolation‐by‐distance was underpinned by significant signatures of selection related to temperature and light. Gradient forest analysis of temperature‐linked SNPs under selection revealed a strong association with mean annual temperature range, suggesting adaptation to local thermal environments. Critically, modelling revealed that predicted climate‐mediated temperature changes will probably result in high genomic vulnerability via a mismatch between current and future predicted genotype–environment relationships such that kelp forests off Western Australia will need to significantly adapt to keep pace with projected climate change. Proactive management techniques such as assisted adaptation to boost resilience may be required to secure the future of these kelp forests and the immense ecological and economic values they support.

AbstractClimate change is increasingly impacting ecosystems globally. Understanding adaptive genetic diversity and whether it will keep pace with projected climatic change is necessary to assess species’ vulnerability and design efficient mitigation strategies such as assisted adaptation. Kelp forests are the foundations of temperate reefs globally but are declining in many regions due to climate stress. A lack of knowledge of kelp's adaptive genetic diversity hinders assessment of vulnerability under extant and future climates. Using 4245 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we characterized patterns of neutral and putative adaptive genetic diversity for the dominant kelp in the southern hemisphere (Ecklonia radiata) from ~1000 km of coastline off Western Australia. Strong population structure and isolation‐by‐distance was underpinned by significant signatures of selection related to temperature and light. Gradient forest analysis of temperature‐linked SNPs under selection revealed a strong association with mean annual temperature range, suggesting adaptation to local thermal environments. Critically, modelling revealed that predicted climate‐mediated temperature changes will probably result in high genomic vulnerability via a mismatch between current and future predicted genotype–environment relationships such that kelp forests off Western Australia will need to significantly adapt to keep pace with projected climate change. Proactive management techniques such as assisted adaptation to boost resilience may be required to secure the future of these kelp forests and the immense ecological and economic values they support.

ABSTRACTOngoing and predicted range loss of kelp forests in response to climatic stressors is pressing marine managers to look into the adaptive capacity of populations to inform conservation strategies. Characterising how adaptive genetic diversity and structure relate to present and future environmental variation represents an emerging approach to quantifying kelp vulnerability to environmental change and identifying populations with genotypes that potentially confer an adaptive advantage in future ocean conditions. The dominant Australian kelp, Ecklonia radiata, was genotyped from 10 locations spanning 2000 km of coastline and a 9.5°C average temperature gradient along the east coast of Australia, a global warming hotspot. ddRAD sequencing generated 10,700 high‐quality single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and characterized levels of neutral and adaptive genomic diversity and structure. The adaptive dataset, reflecting portions of the genome putatively under selection, was used to infer genomic vulnerability by 2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. There was strong neutral genetic differentiation between Australia mainland and Tasmanian populations, but only weak genetic structure among mainland populations within the main path of the East Australian Current. Genetic diversity was highest in the center of the range and lowest in the warm‐edge population. The adaptive SNP candidates revealed similar genetic structure patterns, with a spread of adaptive alleles across most warm (northern) populations. The lowest, but most unique, adaptive genetic diversity values were found in both warm and cool population edges, suggesting local adaptation but low evolutionary potential. Critically, genomic vulnerability modeling identified high levels of vulnerability to future environmental conditions in Tasmanian populations. Populations of kelp at range edges are unlikely to adapt and keep pace with predicted climate change. Ensuring the persistence of these kelp forests, by boosting resilience to climate change, may require active management strategies with assisted adaptation in warm‐edge (northern) populations and assisted gene flow in cool‐edge (Tasmania) populations.

ABSTRACTOngoing and predicted range loss of kelp forests in response to climatic stressors is pressing marine managers to look into the adaptive capacity of populations to inform conservation strategies. Characterising how adaptive genetic diversity and structure relate to present and future environmental variation represents an emerging approach to quantifying kelp vulnerability to environmental change and identifying populations with genotypes that potentially confer an adaptive advantage in future ocean conditions. The dominant Australian kelp, Ecklonia radiata, was genotyped from 10 locations spanning 2000 km of coastline and a 9.5°C average temperature gradient along the east coast of Australia, a global warming hotspot. ddRAD sequencing generated 10,700 high‐quality single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and characterized levels of neutral and adaptive genomic diversity and structure. The adaptive dataset, reflecting portions of the genome putatively under selection, was used to infer genomic vulnerability by 2050 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. There was strong neutral genetic differentiation between Australia mainland and Tasmanian populations, but only weak genetic structure among mainland populations within the main path of the East Australian Current. Genetic diversity was highest in the center of the range and lowest in the warm‐edge population. The adaptive SNP candidates revealed similar genetic structure patterns, with a spread of adaptive alleles across most warm (northern) populations. The lowest, but most unique, adaptive genetic diversity values were found in both warm and cool population edges, suggesting local adaptation but low evolutionary potential. Critically, genomic vulnerability modeling identified high levels of vulnerability to future environmental conditions in Tasmanian populations. Populations of kelp at range edges are unlikely to adapt and keep pace with predicted climate change. Ensuring the persistence of these kelp forests, by boosting resilience to climate change, may require active management strategies with assisted adaptation in warm‐edge (northern) populations and assisted gene flow in cool‐edge (Tasmania) populations.

Genomic vulnerability analyses are being increasingly used to assess the adaptability of species to climate change and provide an opportunity for proactive management of harvested marine species in changing oceans. Southeastern Australia is a climate change hotspot where many marine species are shifting poleward. The turban snail, Turbo militaris is a commercially and culturally harvested marine gastropod snail from eastern Australia. The species has exhibited a climate-driven poleward range shift over the last two decades presenting an ongoing challenge for sustainable fisheries management. We investigate the impact of future climate change on T. militaris using genotype-by-sequencing to project patterns of gene flow and local adaptation across its range under climate change scenarios. A single admixed, and potentially panmictic, demographic unit was revealed with no evidence of genetic subdivision across the species range. Significant genotype associations with heterogeneous habitat features were observed, including associations with sea surface temperature, ocean currents, and nutrients, indicating possible adaptive genetic differentiation. These findings suggest that standing genetic variation may be available for selection to counter future environmental change, assisted by widespread gene flow, high fecundity and short generation time in this species. We discuss the findings of this study in the content of future fisheries management and conservation.

Genomic vulnerability analyses are being increasingly used to assess the adaptability of species to climate change and provide an opportunity for proactive management of harvested marine species in changing oceans. Southeastern Australia is a climate change hotspot where many marine species are shifting poleward. The turban snail, Turbo militaris is a commercially and culturally harvested marine gastropod snail from eastern Australia. The species has exhibited a climate-driven poleward range shift over the last two decades presenting an ongoing challenge for sustainable fisheries management. We investigate the impact of future climate change on T. militaris using genotype-by-sequencing to project patterns of gene flow and local adaptation across its range under climate change scenarios. A single admixed, and potentially panmictic, demographic unit was revealed with no evidence of genetic subdivision across the species range. Significant genotype associations with heterogeneous habitat features were observed, including associations with sea surface temperature, ocean currents, and nutrients, indicating possible adaptive genetic differentiation. These findings suggest that standing genetic variation may be available for selection to counter future environmental change, assisted by widespread gene flow, high fecundity and short generation time in this species. We discuss the findings of this study in the content of future fisheries management and conservation.