• Energy Research

AbstractTree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

Earth system models and various climate proxy sources indicate global warming is unprecedented during at least the Common Era1. However, tree-ring proxies often estimate temperatures during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (950-1250 CE) that are similar to, or exceed, those recorded for the past century2,3, in contrast to simulation experiments at regional scales4. This not only calls into question the reliability of models and proxies but also contributes to uncertainty in future climate projections5. Here we show that the current climate of the Fennoscandian Peninsula is substantially warmer than that of the medieval period. This highlights the dominant role of anthropogenic forcing in climate warming even at the regional scale, thereby reconciling inconsistencies between reconstructions and model simulations. We used an annually resolved 1,170-year-long tree-ring record that relies exclusively on tracheid anatomical measurements from Pinus sylvestris trees, providing high-fidelity measurements of instrumental temperature variability during the warm season. We therefore call for the construction of more such millennia-long records to further improve our understanding and reduce uncertainties around historical and future climate change at inter-regional and eventually global scales.

Bulk wood density measurements are recognized for their utility in ecology, industry, and biomass estimations. In tree-ring research, microdensitometric techniques are widely used, but their ability to determine the correct central tendency has been questioned. Though rarely used, it may be possible to use bulk wood density as a tool to check the accuracy of and even correct microdensitometric measurements. Since measuring bulk wood density in parallel with X-ray densitometry is quickly and easily done, we suspect that its omission is largely due to a lack of awareness of the procedure and/or its importance. In this study, we describe a simple protocol for measuring bulk wood density tailored for tree-ring researchers and demonstrate a few possible applications. To implement real-world examples of the applications, we used a sample of existing X-ray and Blue Intensity (BI) measurements from 127 living and dead Pinus sylvestris trees from northern Sweden to produce new measurements of bulk wood density. We can confirm that the central tendency in this sample material is offset using X-ray densitometry and that the diagnosis and correction of X-ray density is easily done using bulk wood density in linear transfer functions. However, this approach was not suitable for our BI measurements due to heavy discoloration. Nevertheless, we were able to use bulk wood density to diagnose and improve the use of deltaBI (latewood BI – earlywood BI) with regard to its overall trends and multi-centennial variability in a dendroclimatological application. Moreover, we experimented with percent of latewood width, scaled with bulk wood density, as a time- and cost-effective proxy for annual ring density. Although our reconstruction only explains about half of the variation in ring density, it is most likely superior to using fixed literature values of density in allometric equations aimed at biomass estimations. With this study, we hope to raise new awareness regarding the versatility and importance of bulk wood density for dendrochronology by demonstrating its simplicity, relevance, and applicability. Dendrochronologia, 69 ISSN:1125-7865 ISSN:1612-0051