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Repository reproducing plots and processing used in Dooley et al., 2022 (One Earth, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.002). For questions and comments about the paper, please contact Kate Dooley (kate.dooley@unimelb.edu.au). For questions and comments about the code, please contact Zebedee Nicholls (zebedee.nicholls@climate-energy-college.org). For full details, please see https://gitlab.com/znicholls/one-earth-2022. {"references": ["Dooley et al. 2022 (One Earth, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.002)"]}

Repository reproducing plots and processing used in Dooley et al., 2022 (One Earth, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.002). For questions and comments about the paper, please contact Kate Dooley (kate.dooley@unimelb.edu.au). For questions and comments about the code, please contact Zebedee Nicholls (zebedee.nicholls@climate-energy-college.org). For full details, please see https://gitlab.com/znicholls/one-earth-2022. {"references": ["Dooley et al. 2022 (One Earth, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.06.002)"]}

Repository reproducing plots and processing used in Dooley et al., 2022 (One Earth).For questions and comments about the paper, please contact Kate Dooley (kate.dooley@unimelb.edu.au). For questions and comments about the code, please contact Zebedee Nicholls (zebedee.nicholls@climate-energy-college.org). For full details, please see https://gitlab.com/znicholls/one-earth-2022. {"references": ["Dooley et al., 2022 (One Earth)"]}

Repository reproducing plots and processing used in Dooley et al., 2022 (One Earth).For questions and comments about the paper, please contact Kate Dooley (kate.dooley@unimelb.edu.au). For questions and comments about the code, please contact Zebedee Nicholls (zebedee.nicholls@climate-energy-college.org). For full details, please see https://gitlab.com/znicholls/one-earth-2022. {"references": ["Dooley et al., 2022 (One Earth)"]}

Abstract Limiting global warming to a 1.5°C temperature rise requires drastic emissions reductions and removal of carbon-dioxide from the atmosphere. Most modelled pathways for 1.5°C assume substantial removals in the form of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage, which brings with it increasing risks to biodiversity and food security via extensive land-use change. Recently, multiple efforts to describe and quantify potential removals via ecosystem-based approaches have gained traction in the climate policy discourse. However, these options have yet to be evaluated in a systematic and scientifically robust way. We provide spatially explicit estimates of ecosystem restoration potential quantified with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Simulations covering forest restoration, reforestation, reduced harvest, agroforestry and silvopasture were combined and found to sequester an additional 93 Gt C by 2100, reducing mean global temperature increase by ∼0.12°C (5%–95% range 0.06°C–0.21°C) relative to a baseline mitigation pathway. Ultimately, pathways to achieving the 1.5°C goal garner broader public support when they include land management options that can bring about multiple benefits, including ecosystem restoration, biodiversity protection, and resilient agricultural practices.

Abstract Limiting global warming to a 1.5°C temperature rise requires drastic emissions reductions and removal of carbon-dioxide from the atmosphere. Most modelled pathways for 1.5°C assume substantial removals in the form of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage, which brings with it increasing risks to biodiversity and food security via extensive land-use change. Recently, multiple efforts to describe and quantify potential removals via ecosystem-based approaches have gained traction in the climate policy discourse. However, these options have yet to be evaluated in a systematic and scientifically robust way. We provide spatially explicit estimates of ecosystem restoration potential quantified with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Simulations covering forest restoration, reforestation, reduced harvest, agroforestry and silvopasture were combined and found to sequester an additional 93 Gt C by 2100, reducing mean global temperature increase by ∼0.12°C (5%–95% range 0.06°C–0.21°C) relative to a baseline mitigation pathway. Ultimately, pathways to achieving the 1.5°C goal garner broader public support when they include land management options that can bring about multiple benefits, including ecosystem restoration, biodiversity protection, and resilient agricultural practices.