• Energy Research

Climate and socio-economic change will affect the land use and the economic viability of Dutch dairy farms. Explorations of future scenarios, which include different drivers and impacts, are needed to perform ex-ante policy assessment. This study uses a bio-economic farm model to assess impacts of climate and socio-economic change on dairy farms in a sandy area in the Netherlands. Farm data from the Farm Accountancy Data Network provided information on the current production levels and available farm resources. First, the farm plans of individual farms were optimized in the current situation to benchmark farms and assess the current scope for improvement. Secondly, simulations for two scenarios were included: a Global Economy with 2. °C global temperature rise (GE/W+) and a Regional Community with 1. °C global temperature rise (RC/G). The impacts of climate change, extreme events, juridical change (including abolishment of milk quota), technological change and price changes were evaluated in separate model runs within the predefined scenarios. We found that farms can increase profit both by intensification and land expansion; the latter especially for medium sized farms (less than 70 cows). Climate change including the effect of increased occurrence of extreme events may negatively affect farm gross margin in the GE/W+ scenario. Lower gross margins are compensated for by the effects of technology and price changes. In contrast with the GE/W+ scenario, climate change has positive impacts on farm profit in RC/G, but less favourable farm input-output price ratios have a negative effect. Technological change is needed to compensate for revenue losses due to higher input prices. In both GE/W+ and RC/G scenarios, dairy farms increase production and the use of artificial fertilizer. Medium sized farms have more options to increase profit than the large farms: they benefit more from the abolishment of the milk quota and better adapt to negative and positive impacts of climate change.While the exact impact of different drivers will always remain uncertain, this study showed that changes in prices, technology and markets have a relatively larger impact than climate change, even when extreme events are taken into account. By using whole farm plans as activities that can be selected, the model is grounded in observations, and it was shown that half of the farms are gross margin maximizers as assumed in the model. The model therefore indicates 'what could happen if', and gives insights in drivers and impacts of dairy farming in the region.

Whole-farm design models quantitatively analyze the effects of a variety of potential changes at the farm system level. Science-driven technical information is confronted with value-driven objectives of farmers or other social groupings under explicit assumptions with respect to exogenous variables that are important drivers of agricultural systems (e.g., market conditions). Hence, farm design is an outcome of objective specification and the potential of a system. In recent publications, whole-farm design modelling has been proposed to enhance (farm) innovation processes. A number of operational modelling tools now offers the opportunity to assess the true potential of whole-farm design modelling to enhance innovation. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is not trivial to find niches for the application of goal-based farm models. Model outcomes appeared not to match questions of farm managers monitoring and learning from their own and other farmers¿ practices. However, our research indicates that whole-farm design modelling possesses the capabilities to make a valuable contribution to reframing. Reframing is the phenomenon that people feel an urge to discuss and reconsider current objectives and perspectives on a problem. Reframing might take place in a situation (i) of mutually felt dependency between stakeholders, (ii) in which there is sufficient pressure and urgency for stakeholders to explore new problem definitions and make progress. Furthermore, our research suggests that the way the researcher enters a likely niche to introduce a model and/or his or her position in this niche may have significant implications for the potential of models to enhance an innovation process. Therefore, we hypothesize that the chances of capitalizing on modelling expertise are likely to be higher when researchers with such expertise are a logical and more or less permanent component of ongoing trajectories than when these researchers come from outside to purposefully search for a niche

Prospects for ethanol production from sugar beet in The Netherlands have been analysed using measured production data from two experimental farms and literature on beet to ethanol conversion. The analyses include beet cultivation and harvesting, transport to the factory, conversion into ethanol and delivery of the ethanol to distribution points. Under the prevailing conditions, ethanol production from sugar beet shows to be reasonably energy efficient. A net energy production has been calculated of 32 and 37 GJ/ha. Crop and ethanol yields are above those reported elsewhere, as is the energy use per hectare which is related to crop yield. Applying alternative energy generating technology at the ethanol factory suggests that considerable energy gains can be realised. Another source of variation is the allocation ratio of energy to ethanol and by-products. The calculations suggest that the prospects for ethanol production from sugar beet in Europe can be considerable, if energy inputs can be reduced, by using crop residues

Het biologisch bedrijf is een meervoudig doelsysteem dat naast productie, werk en inkomen ook een maatschappelijke functie heeft ten aanzien van het milieu, de natuur, het landschap en gezondheid en welzijn van mens en dier. Het is niet eenvoudig deze verschillende doelen binnen de context van het bedrijf met elkaar in overeenstemming te brengen. In dit artikel wordt nader ingegaan op conflicten tussen doelen en op een methodische aanpak om deze conflicten in kaart te brengen als hulpmiddel bij het toekomstgerichte ontwerpen en innoveren van biologische bedrijfssystemen

In deze studie is een poging gedaan om in een concrete bio-energieketen en aan de hand van concrete datasets, het toetsingskader toe te passen waar mogelijk. Gekozen is voor ethanolproductie op basis van suikerbieten waarbij het accent is gelegd op het agronomische deel van de keten. De duurzaamheid van de suikerbietethanolketen, zoals hier berekend, scoort goed op de criteria die in ogenschouw zijn genomen. De reductie van broeikasgasemissie voldoet aan de norm van 30%. Een intensievere teelt van suikerbieten heeft geen betekenisvolle invloed op de C-voorraad in de bodem noch op het milieu. De energiebalans is positief, met een netto-energieopbrengst van gemiddeld 76 GJ per ha gedurende 3 jaren op 2 proefbedrijven in Nederland. Hierbij moet worden opgemerkt dat relatief gunstige aannames zijn gebruikt. Indien minder optimistische waarden zouden worden gebruikt, liggen de resultaten minder gunstig maar nog steeds voldoende positief. Er is echter wel sprake van veel onzekerheden. Met name de berekeningen van de lachgasemissie, N-mineralisatie en parameters voor de bodem organische stof vragen een betere onderbouwing.

We analysed the influence of the mode of participation in biomass production for biofuels on food security of different farm types. We studied two modes of participation in biomass production: an outgrower scheme for sunflower and a jatropha plantation offering full time employment and assessed the four dimensions of food security: availability, access, stability and utilization in smallholder farms in Central Mozambique. We interviewed 80 households who were participating in the sunflower outgrower scheme, had a household member working on the jatropha plantation or were not participating with biofuel production. For each household we quantified four indicators: maize sales minus purchases, gross revenue, revenue diversity, and household dietary diversity scores. Involvement of smallholder farmers with biomass production for fuel had a positive or no impact on the four dimensions of food security at the farm level. Positive food security impacts from working on the biofuel plantation were improvements in availability for the larger farms and improvements in access for the smaller farms. Utilization of food was generally not impacted. Impacts on food security from the sunflower outgrower scheme were minor. There is scope to improve the outgrower scheme with services and inputs that increase sunflower yields and give positive spill-overs to other crops.

In deze studie is een poging gedaan om in een concrete bio-energieketen en aan de hand van concrete datasets, het toetsingskader toe te passen waar mogelijk. Gekozen is voor ethanolproductie op basis van suikerbieten waarbij het accent is gelegd op het agronomische deel van de keten.