• Energy Research

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyse the dynamic and evolving relationship between Bitcoin mining (BTC) and climate policy uncertainty. By using the newly developed U.S. Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) indicator by Gavriilidis (2021) as a proxy for global climate-related transition risk, this study aims to explore the complex bidirectional causality between these two critical phenomena in climate-related finance. Further, we explore how economic and market factors influence the cryptocurrency market, focusing on the relationship between CPU and Bitcoin mining.Design/methodology/approachWe employ a linear and non-linear rolling window sub-sample Granger causality approach combined with a probit model to examine the time-varying causalities between Bitcoin mining and the U.S. Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) indicator. This method captures asymmetric effects and dynamic interactions that are often missed by linear and static models. It also allows for the endogenous determination of key drivers in the BTC–CPU nexus, ensuring that the results are not influenced by ad-hoc assumptions but are instead grounded in the data’s inherent properties.FindingsThe findings indicate that Bitcoin mining is negatively impacted by climate policy uncertainty during periods of increased environmental concern, while its energy-intensive nature contributes to increasing climate policy uncertainty. In addition to market factors, such as Bitcoin halving, and alternative assets, such as green equity, five main macroeconomic factors influence these relationships: financial instability, economic policy uncertainty, rising oil prices and increasing industrial production. Furthermore, two non-linear dynamics in the relationship between climate policy uncertainty and Bitcoin (CPU-BTC nexus) are identified: the “anticipatory regulatory decline effect”, when miners boost activity ahead of expected regulatory changes, but this increase is unsustainable due to stricter regulations, compliance costs, investor scrutiny and reputational risks linked to high energy use.Originality/valueThis study is the first in the literature to examine the time-varying and asymmetric relationships between Bitcoin mining and climate policy uncertainty, aspects often overlooked by static causality and average-based coefficient models used in previous research. It uncovers two previously unidentified non-linear effects in the BTC-CPU nexus: the “anticipatory regulatory decline effect” and the “mining-driven regulatory surge”, and identifies major market factors macro-determinants of this nexus. The implications are substantial, aiding policymakers in formulating effective regulatory frameworks, helping investors develop more sustainable investment strategies and enabling industry stakeholders to better manage the environmental challenges facing the Bitcoin mining sector.

This study examines the causal relationships between oil prices and the MSCI stock index of G7 countries between September 2004 and October 2020. This study is novel in implementing symmetric and asymmetric time-varying causality tests based on the bootstrap rolling-window approach. The results reveal that the causal link between oil prices and G7 stock markets is time-dependent. The periods of bidirectional causality roughly coincide with the global financial crisis and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. When asymmetry is accounted for, the results suggest an asymmetric causality between the two markets expressed by different patterns regarding positive and negative oil shocks. The results also indicate symmetric causality during the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings have implications for portfolio design and hedging strategies that are important to both policymakers and investors.