• Energy Research

Through the lens of evolution, climate change is an agent of natural selection that forces populations to change and adapt, or face extinction. However, current assessments of the risk of biodiversity associated with climate change1 do not typically take into account how natural selection influences populations differently depending on their genetic makeup2. Here we make use of the extensive genome information that is available for Arabidopsis thaliana and measure how manipulation of the amount of rainfall affected the fitness of 517 natural Arabidopsis lines that were grown in Spain and Germany. This allowed us to directly infer selection along the genome3. Natural selection was particularly strong in the hot-dry location in Spain, where 63% of lines were killed and where natural selection substantially changed the frequency of approximately 5% of all genome-wide variants. A significant portion of this climate-driven natural selection of variants was predictable from signatures of local adaptation (R2 = 29-52%), as genetic variants that were found in geographical areas with climates more similar to the experimental sites were positively selected. Field-validated predictions across the species range indicated that Mediterranean and western Siberian populations-at the edges of the environmental limits of this species-currently experience the strongest climate-driven selection. With more frequent droughts and rising temperatures in Europe4, we forecast an increase in directional natural selection moving northwards from the southern end of Europe, putting many native A. thaliana populations at evolutionary risk.

AbstractSeed plants vary tremendously in size and morphology. However, variation and covariation between plant traits may at least in part be governed by universal biophysical laws and biological constants. Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST) posits that whole-organismal metabolism and growth rate are under stabilizing selection that minimizes the scaling of hydrodynamic resistance and maximizes the scaling of resource uptake. This constrains variation in physiological traits and in the rate of biomass accumulation, so that they can be expressed as mathematical functions of plant size with near constant allometric scaling exponents across species. However, observed variation in scaling exponents questions the evolutionary drivers and the universality of allometric equations. We have measured growth scaling and fitness traits of 451 Arabidopsis thaliana accessions with sequenced genomes. Variation among accessions around the scaling exponent predicted by MST correlated with relative growth rate, seed production and stress resistance. Genomic analyses indicate that growth allometry is affected by many genes associated with local climate and abiotic stress response. The gene with the strongest effect, PUB4, has molecular signatures of balancing selection, suggesting that intraspecific variation in growth scaling is maintained by opposing selection on the trade-off between seed production and abiotic stress resistance. Our findings support a core MST prediction and suggest that variation in allometry contributes to local adaptation to contrasting environments. Our results help reconcile past debates on the origin of allometric scaling in biology, and begin to link adaptive variation in allometric scaling to specific genes.Significance statementAre there biological constants unifying phenotypic diversity across scales? Metabolic Scaling Theory (MST) predicts mathematical regularity and constancy in the allometric scaling of growth rate with body size across species. Here, we show that adaptation to climate in Arabidopsis thaliana is associated with local strains that substantially deviate from the values predicted by MST. This deviation can be linked to increased stress tolerance at the expense of seed production, and it occurs through selection on genes that are involved in abiotic stress response and that are geographically correlated with climatic conditions. This highlights the evolutionary role of allometric diversification and helps establish the physiological bases of plant adaptation to contrasting environments.

AbstractDissecting plant responses to the environment is key to understanding if and how plants adapt to anthropogenic climate change. Stomata, plants’ pores for gas exchange, are expected to decrease in density following increased CO2concentrations, a trend already observed in multiple plant species. However, it is unclear if such responses are based on genetic changes and evolutionary adaptation. Here we make use of extensive knowledge of 43 genes in the stomatal development pathway and newly generated genome information of 191A. thalianahistorical herbarium specimens collected over the last 193 years to directly link genetic variation with climate change. While we find that the essential transcription factors SPCH, MUTE and FAMA, central to stomatal development, are under strong evolutionary constraints, several regulators of stomatal development show signs of local adaptation in contemporary samples from different geographic regions. We then develop a polygenic score based on known effects of gene knock-out on stomatal development that recovers a classic pattern of stomatal density decrease over the last centuries without requiring direct phenotype observation of historical samples. This approach combining historical genomics with functional experimental knowledge could allow further investigations of how different, even in historical samples unmeasurable, cellular plant phenotypes have already responded to climate change through adaptive evolution.One sentence summaryUsing a molecular-knowledge based genetic phenotype proxy, historical whole-genomeA. thalianatimelines compared with contemporary data indicate a shift of stomatal density following climate-associated predictions.

Because earth is currently experiencing unprecedented climate change, it is important to predict how species will respond to it. However, geographically-explicit predictive studies frequently ignore that species are comprised of genetically diverse individuals that can vary in their degree of adaptation to extreme local environments; properties that will determine the species’ ability to withstand climate change. Because an increase in extreme drought events is expected to challenge plant communities with global warming, we carried out a greenhouse experiment to investigate which genetic variants predict surviving an extreme drought event and how those variants are distributed across EurasianArabidopsis thalianaindividuals. Genetic variants conferring higher drought survival showed signatures of polygenic adaptation, and were more frequently found in Mediterranean and Scandinavian regions. Using geoenvironmental models, we predicted that Central European populations might lag behind in adaptation by the end of the 21stcentury. Further analyses showed that a population decline could nevertheless be compensated by natural selection acting efficiently over standing variation or by migration of adapted individuals from populations at the margins of the species’ distribution. These findings highlight the importance of within-species genetic heterogeneity in facilitating an evolutionary response to a changing climate.One-sentence summary“Future genetic changes inA. thalianapopulations can be forecast by combining climate change models with genomic predictions based on experimental phenotypic data.”

Climate warming is expected to shift the distributions of mosquitoes and mosquito-borne diseases, promoting expansions at cool range edges and contractions at warm range edges. However, whether mosquito populations could maintain their warm edges through evolutionary adaptation remains unknown. Here, we investigate the potential for thermal adaptation in Aedes sierrensis , a congener of the major disease vector species that experiences large thermal gradients in its native range, by assaying tolerance to prolonged and acute heat exposure, and its genetic basis in a diverse, field-derived population. We found pervasive evidence of heritable genetic variation in mosquito heat tolerance, and phenotypic trade-offs in tolerance to prolonged versus acute heat exposure. Further, we found genomic variation associated with prolonged heat tolerance was clustered in several regions of the genome, suggesting the presence of larger structural variants such as chromosomal inversions. A simple evolutionary model based on our data estimates that the maximum rate of evolutionary adaptation in mosquito heat tolerance will exceed the projected rate of climate warming, implying the potential for mosquitoes to track warming via genetic adaptation.

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology—evolutionary rescue models—can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.