• Energy Research

Abstract Background The global human footprint has fundamentally altered wildfire regimes, creating serious consequences for human health, biodiversity, and climate. However, it remains difficult to project how long-term interactions among land use, management, and climate change will affect fire behavior, representing a key knowledge gap for sustainable management. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 99 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300. Results Respondents indicated some direct human influence on wildfire since at least ~ 12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime change until around 5,000 years BP, for most study regions. Responses suggested a ten-fold increase in the frequency of fire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in frequency, severity, and size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regimes showed different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher warming scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, while recognizing that management options are constrained under higher emission scenarios. Conclusion The influence of humans on wildfire regimes has increased over the last two centuries. The perspective gained from past fires should be considered in land and fire management strategies, but novel fire behavior is likely given the unprecedented human disruption of plant communities, climate, and other factors. Future fire regimes are likely to degrade key ecosystem services, unless climate change is aggressively mitigated. Expert assessment complements empirical data and modeling, providing a broader perspective of fire science to inform decision making and future research priorities.

Wildfires in forests globally have become more frequent and intense because of changes in climate and human management. Shrub layer fuels allow fire to spread vertically to forest canopy, creating high-intensity fires. Our research provides a deep-time perspective on shrub fuel loads in fire-prone southeastern Australia. Comparing 2833 records for vegetation cover, past climate, biomass burning, and human population size across different phases of human occupation, we demonstrated that Indigenous population expansion and cultural fire use resulted in a 50% reduction in shrub cover, from approximately 30% from the early to mid-Holocene (12 to 6 thousand years ago) to 15% during the late to mid-Holocene (6 to 1 thousand years ago). Since the start of British colonization to the present, shrub cover has increased to the highest ever recorded (mean of 35% land cover), increasing the risk of high-intensity fires.

The alpine area of the Australian mainland is highly sensitive to climate and environmental change, and potentially vulnerable to ecosystem tipping points. Over the next two decades the Australian alpine region is predicted to experience temperature increases of at least 1 °C, coupled with a substantial decrease in snow cover. Extending the short instrumental record in these regions is imperative to put future change into context, and potentially provide analogues of warming. We reconstructed past temperatures, using a lipid biomarker palaeothermometer technique and mercury flux changes for the past 3500 years from the sediments of Club Lake, a high-altitude alpine tarn in the Snowy Mountains, southeastern Australia. Using a multi-proxy framework, including pollen and charcoal analyses, high-resolution geochemistry, and ancient microbial community composition, supported by high-resolution 210Pb and AMS 14C dating, we investigated local and regional ecological and environmental changes occurring in response to changes in temperature. We find the region experienced a general warming trend over the last 3500 years, with a pronounced climate anomaly occurring between 1000 and 1600 cal yrs. BP. Shifts in vegetation took place during this warm period, characterised by a decline in alpine species and an increase in open woodland taxa which co-occurred with an increase in regional fire activity. Given the narrow altitudinal band of Australian alpine vegetation, any future warming has the potential to result in the extinction of alpine species, including several endemic to the area, as treelines are driven to higher elevations. These findings suggest ongoing conservation efforts will be needed to protect the vulnerable alpine environments from the combined threats of climate changes, fire and invasive species.

Mercury (Hg) is a volatile metal of international concern due to its toxicity, with a large atmospheric emission and transport capacity. The biogeochemical cycle of Hg is sensitive to changes in climate, yet our understanding of the specific impact of climatic factors on the Hg cycle remains limited. Here we use a multi-proxy framework, supported by AMS 14C dating, to interpret climatic events in South-Eastern Australia from ∼18,000 years to 6500 years before present from the sediments of Blue Lake in Australia's alpine region. By combining Hg analysis with Antarctic temperature records and iTRACE climate model outputs, carbon-to‑nitrogen ratios (C:N), macroscopic charcoal, and pollen analysis, we find Hg records within Blue Lake's sediments primarily reflect changes in the catchment as a result of a changing climate. The increase in Hg concentrations began with the onset of the Holocene, following a glacial period during which the region was predominantly rocky, relatively barren, and likely covered by ice and snow. The strong relationship between Hg and organic matter in our record indicates that soil development in the watershed post de-glaciation was a predominant driver of Hg concentration and deposition in Blue Lake. An increase in precipitation and temperature in the Holocene contributed to an increase in nutrients and organic matter, further increasing Hg concentration in Blue Lake. A primary challenge in modern Hg research, particularly in the context of climate change, involves distinguishing changes in Hg levels resulting from human activities from those driven by climatic variations. Our pre-anthropogenic data highlight the long-term interrelationships among climate dynamics, soil processes, and ecological transformations within lake catchments on the geochemical cycle of Hg. These connections should be factored into strategies aimed at mitigating Hg increases in lake sediments resulting from global warming.