• Energy Research

Many ectothermic organisms counter harsh abiotic conditions by seeking refuge in underground retreats. Variations in soil hydrothermal properties within these retreats may impact their energy budget, survival and population dynamics. This makes retreat site choice a critical yet understudied component of their strategies for coping with climate change. We used a mechanistic modelling approach to explore the implications of behavioural adjustments and seasonal acclimation of metabolic rate on retreat depth and the energy budget of ectotherms, considering both current and future climate conditions. We used a temperate amphibian, the alpine newt ( Ichthyosaura alpestris ), as a model species. Our simulations predict an interactive influence of different thermo- and hydroregulatory strategies on the vertical positioning of individuals in underground refuges. The adoption of a particular strategy largely determines the impact of climate change on retreat site choice. Additionally, we found that, given the behavioural thermoregulation/hydroregulation and metabolic acclimation patterns considered, behaviour within the retreat has a greater impact on ectotherm energetics than acclimation of metabolic rate under different climate change scenarios. We conclude that further empirical research aimed at determining ectotherm behavioural strategies during both surface activity and inactivity is needed to understand their population dynamics and species viability under climate change.

AbstractCritical thermal limits (CTmax and CTmin) decrease with elevation, with greater change in CTmin, and the risk to suffer heat and cold stress increasing at the gradient ends. A central prediction is that populations will adapt to the prevailing climatic conditions. Yet, reliable support for such expectation is scant because of the complexity of integrating phenotypic, molecular divergence and organism exposure. We examined intraspecific variation of CTmax and CTmin, neutral variation for 11 microsatellite loci, and micro‐ and macro‐temperatures in larvae from 11 populations of the Galician common frog (Rana parvipalmata) across an elevational gradient, to assess (1) the existence of local adaptation through a PST‐FST comparison, (2) the acclimation scope in both thermal limits, and (3) the vulnerability to suffer acute heat and cold thermal stress, measured at both macro‐ and microclimatic scales. Our study revealed significant microgeographic variation in CTmax and CTmin, and unexpected elevation gradients in pond temperatures. However, variation in CTmax and CTmin could not be attributed to selection because critical thermal limits were not correlated to elevation or temperatures. Differences in breeding phenology among populations resulted in exposure to higher and more variable temperatures at mid and high elevations. Accordingly, mid‐ and high‐elevation populations had higher CTmax and CTmin plasticities than lowland populations, but not more extreme CTmax and CTmin. Thus, our results support the prediction that plasticity and phenological shifts may hinder local adaptation, promoting thermal niche conservatism. This may simply be a consequence of a coupled variation of reproductive timing with elevation (the “elevation‐time axis” for temperature variation). Mid and high mountain populations of R. parvipalmata are more vulnerable to heat and cool impacts than lowland populations during the aquatic phase. All of this contradicts some of the existing predictions on adaptive thermal clines and vulnerability to climate change in elevational gradients.

AbstractInsights into the causal mechanisms that limit species distributions are likely to improve our ability to anticipate species range shifts in response to climate change. For species with complex life histories, a mechanistic understanding of how climate affects different lifecycle stages may be crucial for making accurate forecasts. Here, we use mechanistic niche modeling (NicheMapR) to derive “proximate” (mechanistic) variables for tadpole, juvenile, and adultRana temporaria. We modeled the hydroperiod, and maximum and minimum temperatures of shallow (30 cm) ponds, as well as activity windows for juveniles and adults. We then used those (“proximate”) variables in correlative ecological niche models (Maxent) to assess their role in limiting the species’ current distribution, and to investigate the potential effects of climate change onR. temporariaacross Europe. We further compared the results with a model based on commonly used macroclimatic (“distal”) layers (i.e., bioclimatic layers from WorldClim). The maximum temperature of the warmest month (a macroclimatic variable) and maximum pond temperatures (a mechanistic variable) were the most important range‐limiting factors, and maximum temperature thresholds were consistent with the observed upper thermal limit ofR. temporariatadpoles. We found that range shift forecasts in central Europe are far more pessimistic when using distal macroclimatic variables, compared to projections based on proximate mechanistic variables. However, both approaches predicted extensive decreases in climatic suitability in southern Europe, which harbors a significant fraction of the species’ genetic diversity. We show how mechanistic modeling provides ways to depict gridded layers that directly reflect the microenvironments experienced by organisms at continental scales, and to reconstruct those predictors without extrapolation under novel future conditions. Furthermore, incorporating those predictors in correlative ecological niche models can help shed light on range‐limiting processes, and can have substantial impacts on predictions of climate‐induced range shifts.

Complex life-histories may promote the evolution of different strategies to allow optimal matching to the environmental conditions that organisms can encounter in contrasting environments. For ectothermic animals, we need to disentangle the role of stage-specific thermal tolerances and developmental acclimation to predict the effects of climate change on spatial distributions. However, the interplay between these mechanisms has been poorly explored. Here we study whether developmental larval acclimation to rearing temperatures affects the thermal tolerance of subsequent terrestrial stages (metamorphs and juveniles) in common frogs (Rana temporaria). Our results show that larval acclimation to warm temperatures enhances larval heat tolerance, but not thermal tolerance in later metamorphic and juvenile stages, which does not support the developmental acclimation hypothesis. Further, metamorphic and juvenile individuals exhibit a decline in thermal tolerance, which would confer higher sensitivity to extreme temperatures. Because thermal tolerance is not enhanced by larval developmental acclimation, these 'risky' stages may be forced to compensate through behavioural thermoregulation and short-term acclimation to face eventual heat peaks in the coming decades.

Abstract The vulnerability of species to climate change is jointly influenced by geographic phenotypic variation, acclimation and behavioural thermoregulation. The importance of interactions between these factors, however, remains poorly understood. We demonstrate how advances in mechanistic niche modelling can be used to integrate and assess the influence of these sources of uncertainty in forecasts of climate change impacts. We explored geographic variation in thermal tolerance (i.e. maximum and minimum thermal limits) and its potential for acclimation in juvenile European common frogs Rana temporaria along elevational gradients. Furthermore, we employed a mechanistic niche model (NicheMapR) to assess the relative contributions of phenotypic variation, acclimation and thermoregulation in determining the impacts of climate change on thermal safety margins and activity windows. Our analyses revealed that high-elevation populations had slightly wider tolerance ranges driven by increases in heat tolerance but lower potential for acclimation. Plausibly, wider thermal fluctuations at high elevations favour more tolerant but less plastic phenotypes, thus reducing the risk of encountering stressful temperatures during unpredictable extreme events. Biophysical models of thermal exposure indicated that observed phenotypic and plastic differences provide limited protection from changing climates. Indeed, the risk of reaching body temperatures beyond the species' thermal tolerance range was similar across elevations. In contrast, the ability to seek cooler retreat sites through behavioural adjustments played an essential role in buffering populations from thermal extremes predicted under climate change. Predicted climate change also altered current activity windows, but high‐elevation populations were predicted to remain more temporally constrained than lowland populations. Our results demonstrate that elevational variation in thermal tolerances and acclimation capacity might be insufficient to buffer temperate amphibians from predicted climate change; instead, behavioural thermoregulation may be the only effective mechanism to avoid thermal stress under future climates.