• Energy Research

The European Union (EU) has positioned itself as a frontrunner in the worldwide battle against climate change and has set increasingly ambitious pollution mitigation targets for its members. The burden is heavier for the more vulnerable economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), who must juggle meeting strict greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reduction goals, significant fossil-fuel reliance, and pressure to respond to current pandemic concerns that require an increasing share of limited public resources, while facing severe repercussions for non-compliance. Thus, the main goals of this research are: (i) to generate reliable aggregate GHG projections for CEE countries; (ii) to assess whether these economies are on track to meet their binding pollution reduction targets; (iii) to pin-point countries where more in-depth analysis using spatial inventories of GHGs at a finer resolution is further needed to uncover specific areas that should be targeted by additional measures; and (iv) to perform geo-spatial analysis for the most at-risk country, Poland. Seven statistical and machine-learning models are fitted through automated forecasting algorithms to predict the aggregate GHGs in nine CEE countries for the 2019–2050 horizon. Estimations show that CEE countries (except Romania and Bulgaria) will not meet the set pollution reduction targets for 2030 and will unanimously miss the 2050 carbon neutrality target without resorting to carbon credits or offsets. Austria and Slovenia are the least likely to meet the 2030 emissions reduction targets, whereas Poland (in absolute terms) and Slovenia (in relative terms) are the farthest from meeting the EU’s 2050 net-zero policy targets. The findings thus stress the need for additional measures that go beyond the status quo, particularly in Poland, Austria, and Slovenia. Geospatial analysis for Poland uncovers that Krakow is the city where pollution is the most concentrated with several air pollutants surpassing EU standards. Short-term projections of PM2.5 levels indicate that the air quality in Krakow will remain below EU and WHO standards, highlighting the urgency of policy interventions. Further geospatial data analysis can provide valuable insights into other geo-locations that require the most additional efforts, thereby, assisting in the achievement of EU climate goals with targeted measures and minimum socio-economic costs. The study concludes that statistical and geo-spatial data, and consequently research based on these data, complement and enhance each other. An integrated framework would consequently support sustainable development through bettering policy and decision-making processes.

The European Union (EU) has positioned itself as a frontrunner in the worldwide battle against climate change and has set increasingly ambitious pollution mitigation targets for its members. The burden is heavier for the more vulnerable economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), who must juggle meeting strict greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reduction goals, significant fossil-fuel reliance, and pressure to respond to current pandemic concerns that require an increasing share of limited public resources, while facing severe repercussions for non-compliance. Thus, the main goals of this research are: (i) to generate reliable aggregate GHG projections for CEE countries; (ii) to assess whether these economies are on track to meet their binding pollution reduction targets; (iii) to pin-point countries where more in-depth analysis using spatial inventories of GHGs at a finer resolution is further needed to uncover specific areas that should be targeted by additional measures; and (iv) to perform geo-spatial analysis for the most at-risk country, Poland. Seven statistical and machine-learning models are fitted through automated forecasting algorithms to predict the aggregate GHGs in nine CEE countries for the 2019–2050 horizon. Estimations show that CEE countries (except Romania and Bulgaria) will not meet the set pollution reduction targets for 2030 and will unanimously miss the 2050 carbon neutrality target without resorting to carbon credits or offsets. Austria and Slovenia are the least likely to meet the 2030 emissions reduction targets, whereas Poland (in absolute terms) and Slovenia (in relative terms) are the farthest from meeting the EU’s 2050 net-zero policy targets. The findings thus stress the need for additional measures that go beyond the status quo, particularly in Poland, Austria, and Slovenia. Geospatial analysis for Poland uncovers that Krakow is the city where pollution is the most concentrated with several air pollutants surpassing EU standards. Short-term projections of PM2.5 levels indicate that the air quality in Krakow will remain below EU and WHO standards, highlighting the urgency of policy interventions. Further geospatial data analysis can provide valuable insights into other geo-locations that require the most additional efforts, thereby, assisting in the achievement of EU climate goals with targeted measures and minimum socio-economic costs. The study concludes that statistical and geo-spatial data, and consequently research based on these data, complement and enhance each other. An integrated framework would consequently support sustainable development through bettering policy and decision-making processes.

The mitigation of climate change through ambitious greenhouse gases emission reduction targets constitutes a current priority at world level, reflected in international, regional and national agendas. Within the common framework for global climate action, an increased reliance on renewable energy sources, which would assist countries to reduce energy imports and cut fossil fuel use, emerged as the solution towards achieving worldwide energy security and sustainability through carbon-neutrality. As such, this study is aimed to investigate the heterogeneous effects of relevant economic and environmental driving factors for renewable energy consumption (REC) that emerge from current policy objectives (GDP per capita, carbon intensity, and research and development) through an empirical analysis of a wide panel of 94 countries, and five income-based subpanels, over the 1995–2019 period, by using heterogeneous panel data fixed-effects estimation techniques (static and dynamic) with robust Driscoll–Kraay standard errors. The results unambiguously indicate that CO2 intensity has a significant mitigating effect on REC at world level, and this relationship is stronger for low-income and very high-income countries. Moreover, GDP per capita promotes REC when it surpasses the 5000 USD threshold, whereas research and development is a major contributor to increase in renewable energy consumption in very high-income countries. As such, for the policy makers, it is necessary to consider the heterogeneity of the drivers of REC in order to issue effective and congruent policies. The effective employment of post-COVID-19 recovery funds constitutes a timely, ideal occasion.

The mitigation of climate change through ambitious greenhouse gases emission reduction targets constitutes a current priority at world level, reflected in international, regional and national agendas. Within the common framework for global climate action, an increased reliance on renewable energy sources, which would assist countries to reduce energy imports and cut fossil fuel use, emerged as the solution towards achieving worldwide energy security and sustainability through carbon-neutrality. As such, this study is aimed to investigate the heterogeneous effects of relevant economic and environmental driving factors for renewable energy consumption (REC) that emerge from current policy objectives (GDP per capita, carbon intensity, and research and development) through an empirical analysis of a wide panel of 94 countries, and five income-based subpanels, over the 1995–2019 period, by using heterogeneous panel data fixed-effects estimation techniques (static and dynamic) with robust Driscoll–Kraay standard errors. The results unambiguously indicate that CO2 intensity has a significant mitigating effect on REC at world level, and this relationship is stronger for low-income and very high-income countries. Moreover, GDP per capita promotes REC when it surpasses the 5000 USD threshold, whereas research and development is a major contributor to increase in renewable energy consumption in very high-income countries. As such, for the policy makers, it is necessary to consider the heterogeneity of the drivers of REC in order to issue effective and congruent policies. The effective employment of post-COVID-19 recovery funds constitutes a timely, ideal occasion.

To achieve sustainable development, massive changes towards fostering a clean and pollution-reducing industrial sector are quintessential. The textile industry has been one of the main contributors to water pollution all over the world, causing more than 20% of the registered levels of water pollution in countries like Turkey, Indonesia and China (among the G20 group of countries) and also in Romania and Bulgaria (in the Eastern European area), with even more than 44% in Macedonia. Given the controversy created by the textile industry’s contribution to pollution at a global level and also the need to diminish pollution in order to promote sustainable development, this paper comparatively investigates the contribution of the textile industry to the water pollution across Central and Eastern European countries, as well as developed countries. In addition, we employ the Holt–Winters model to forecast the trend of the total emissions of organic water pollutants, as well as of the textile industry’s contribution to pollution for the top polluters in Eastern Europe, i.e., Poland and Romania. According to our estimates, both countries are headed towards complete elimination of pollution caused by the textile industry and, hence, toward a more sustainable industrial sector, as Greenpeace intended with the release of its 2011 reports.

To achieve sustainable development, massive changes towards fostering a clean and pollution-reducing industrial sector are quintessential. The textile industry has been one of the main contributors to water pollution all over the world, causing more than 20% of the registered levels of water pollution in countries like Turkey, Indonesia and China (among the G20 group of countries) and also in Romania and Bulgaria (in the Eastern European area), with even more than 44% in Macedonia. Given the controversy created by the textile industry’s contribution to pollution at a global level and also the need to diminish pollution in order to promote sustainable development, this paper comparatively investigates the contribution of the textile industry to the water pollution across Central and Eastern European countries, as well as developed countries. In addition, we employ the Holt–Winters model to forecast the trend of the total emissions of organic water pollutants, as well as of the textile industry’s contribution to pollution for the top polluters in Eastern Europe, i.e., Poland and Romania. According to our estimates, both countries are headed towards complete elimination of pollution caused by the textile industry and, hence, toward a more sustainable industrial sector, as Greenpeace intended with the release of its 2011 reports.

Oil price forecasts are of crucial importance for many policy institutions, including the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Board, but projecting oil market evolutions remains a complicated task, further exacerbated by the financialization process that characterizes the crude oil markets. The efficiency (in Fama’s sense) of crude oil markets is revisited in this research through the investigation of the predictive ability of technical trading rules (TTRs). The predictive ability and trading performance of a plethora of TTRs are explored on the crude oil markets, as well as on the energy sector ETF XLE, while taking a special focus on the turbulent COVID-19 pandemic period. We are interested in whether technical trading strategies, by signaling the right timing of market entry and exits, can predict oil market movements. Research findings help to confidently conclude on the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil and the XLE fund markets throughout the 1999–2021 period relative to the universe of TTRs. Moreover, results attest that TTRs do not add value to the Brent market beyond what may be expected by chance over the pre-pandemic 1999–2019 period, confirming the efficiency of the market before 2020. Nonetheless, research findings also suggest some temporal inefficiency of the Brent market during the 1 and ¼ years of pandemic period, with important consequences for energy markets’ practitioners and issuers of policy. Research findings further imply that there is evidence of a more intense financialization of the WTI crude oil market, which requires tighter measures from regulators during distressed markets. The Brent oil market is affected mainly by variations in oil demand and supply at the world level and to a lesser degree by financialization and the activity of market practitioners. As such, we conclude that different policies are needed for the two oil markets and also that policy issuers should employ distinct techniques for oil price forecasting.