• Energy Research

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

Although it has long been recognized that seed production by many forest trees varies greatly from year to year, masting (along with ‘mast fruiting’, ‘mast seeding’ and ‘masting behaviour’) as a concept referring to such variability is a relatively recent development. Here, I provide a brief history of masting research, highlighting some of the early contributions by foresters, zoologists and others that paved the way for the burgeoning number of studies currently being conducted by researchers around the world. Of particular current interest is work attempting to understand the proximate mechanisms, evolutionary drivers and community effects of this important ecological phenomenon as well as the ways that climate change may influence masting behaviour in the future.This article is part of the theme issue ‘The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

We examined the relationship between acorn mass and number in valley oaks (Quercus lobata) over 4 years in central coastal California. Despite considerable variation in acorn size among both trees and years, trees produced acorns of the same size relative to other trees in different years. Across years, the relationship between acorn mass and acorn crop size was generally positive, even after controlling for environmental conditions and differences in individual tree size and quality. Life-history trade-offs in valley oaks are primarily between current and future reproduction and indirectly between concurrent growth and reproduction, not between seed size and number, and are probably related to this species' mast-seeding behavior. Phenotypic trade-offs in long-lived plants such as oaks exhibit complex patterns of life-history covariation and deserve greater attention, both theoretically and empirically.

Trade-offs in sex resource allocation are commonly inferred from a negative correlation between male and female reproduction. We found that for three California oak species, aboveground annual net productivity (ANP) differences among individuals were primarily correlated with water availability and soil fertility. Reproductive biomass increased with ANP, but the relative allocation to reproduction was constant, indicating that reproduction tracked productivity, which in turn tracked site quality. Although there was a negative correlation between male and female reproduction, this was not the result of a resource investment trade-off, but rather a byproduct of the positive correlation between female reproductive biomass and ANP combined with the greater overall resource allocation to female, compared to male, function. Thus, we reject the hypothesis of a trade-off between these key life-history components within individuals of these species. For long-lived individuals, a plastic resource tracking response to environmental fluctuations may be more adaptive than directly linking life-history traits through trade-offs.

AbstractIndirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.