• Energy Research

AbstractThere is an increasing need for long-term monitoring of ecosystems and their services to inform on-ground management and policy direction. The supply of many ecosystem services relies on connections that span multiple ecosystems. Monitoring the underlying condition of interconnected ecosystems, using established indicators, is therefore required to track effectiveness of past interventions and, ideally, identify impending change. Here we conduct performance testing of ecological indicators for a catchment-to-coast system with the aim of identifying the time-scales over which they respond to change. We chose a case-study of a coastal fishery in Northern Australia that exhibits strong catchment-to-coast connectivity, has long-term available data and is under threat from water resource development. We developed a novel approach to performance testing. Our model drew on state-space modelling to capture ecological dynamics, and structural equation modelling to capture covariation in indictors timeseries. We first quantified covariation among three established ecological indicators: pasture biomass, vegetation greenness and barramundi catch per unit effort. Covariation in the indicators was driven by river flow, with higher values of all indicators occurring in years with greater river flow. We then defined reference bounds for each indicator that accounted for natural variation in river flow. We predicted the emergence times for each indicator, as the time taken for each indicator to emerge from the background of natural variation. Emergence times quantified at 80% and higher confidence levels were >10 years in all cases. Past trends and current status of ecosystem service flows are often used by decision makers to directly inform near-term actions, particularly provisioning services (such as barramundi catch) due to their important contribution to regional economies. We found that the ecological indicators should be used to assess historical performance over decadal timespans, but not as short-term indicators of recent change. More generally, we offer an approach to performance testing of indicators. This approach could be useful for quantifying time-scales of ecosystem response in other systems where cross-ecosystem connections are important.

Determining the position of range edges is the first step in developing an understanding of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in play as species' ranges shift in response to climate change. Here, we study the leading (poleward) range edge of Ocypode cordimanus, a ghost crab that is common along the central to northern east coast of Australia. Our study establishes the poleward range edge of adults of this species to be at Merimbula (36.90°S, 149.93°E), 270 km (along the coast) south of the previous southernmost museum record. We also establish that dispersal of pelagic larvae results in recruitment to beaches 248 km (along the coast; 0.9° of latitude) beyond the adult range edge we have documented here. Although we cannot conclusively demonstrate that the leading range edge for this species has moved polewards in response to climate change, this range edge does fall within a "hotspot" of ocean warming, where surface isotherms are moving southwards along the coast at 20-50 km.decade-1; coastal air temperatures in the region are also warming. If these patterns persist, future range extensions could be anticipated. On the basis of their ecology, allied with their occupancy of ocean beaches, which are home to taxa that are particularly amenable to climate-change studies, we propose that ghost crabs like O. cordimanus represent ideal model organisms with which to study ecological and evolutionary processes associated with climate change. The fact that "hotspots" of ocean warming on four other continents correspond with poleward range edges of ghost crab species suggests that results of hypothesis tests could be generalized, yielding excellent opportunities to rapidly progress knowledge in this field.

Tidal marshes are a key component of coastal seascape mosaics that support a suite of socially and economically valuable ecosystem services, including recreational opportunities (e.g., fishing, birdwatching), habitat for fisheries species, improved water quality, and shoreline protection. The capacity for tidal marshes to support these services is, however, threatened by increasingly widespread human impacts that reduce the extent and condition of tidal marshes across multiple spatial scales and that vary substantially through time. Climate change causes species redistribution at continental scales, changes in weather patterns (e.g., rainfall), and a worsening of the effect of coastal squeeze through sea level rise. Simultaneously, the effects of urbanization such as habitat loss, eutrophication, fishing, and the spread of invasive species interact with each other, and with climate change, to fundamentally change the structure and functioning of tidal marshes and their food webs. These changes affect tidal marshes at local scales through changes in plant community composition, complexity, and condition and at regional scales through changes in habitat extent, configuration, and connectivity. However, research into the full effects of these multi-scaled, interactive stressors on ecosystem service provision in tidal marshes is in its infancy and is somewhat geographically restricted. This hinders our capacity to quickly and effectively curb loss and degradation of both tidal marshes and the services they deliver with targeted management actions. We highlight ten priority research questions seeking to quantify the consequences and scales of human impacts on tidal marshes that should be answered to improve management and restoration plans.

Grazing is a pivotal function in many marine systems, conferring resilience to coral reefs by limiting algal overgrowth, but triggering phase shifts on temperate reefs. Thus, changes to consumption rates of grazing species in response to higher future temperatures may have broad ecological consequences. We measured how the consumption rates of a widespread mesograzer (the hermit crab Clibanarius virescens) responded to changing temperatures in the laboratory and applied these findings to model the spatial footprint on grazing animals throughout the Indo-Pacific region under climate change scenarios. We show that mean grazing capacity may increase in shallow coastal areas in the second half of the century. The effects are, however, asymmetrical, with tropical reefs predicted to experience slightly diminished grazing whilst reefs at higher latitudes will be grazed substantially more. Our findings suggest that assessments of the effects of climate change on reef ecosystems should consider how warming affects grazing performance when predicting wider ecological impacts.

Seagrasses are important marine ecosystems situated throughout the world’s coastlines. They are facing declines around the world due to global and local threats such as rising ocean temperatures, coastal development and pollution from sewage outfalls and agriculture. Efforts have been made to reduce seagrass loss through reducing local and regional stressors, and through active restoration. Seagrass restoration is a rapidly maturing discipline, but improved restoration practices are needed to enhance the success of future programs. Major gaps in knowledge remain, however, prior research efforts have provided valuable insights into factors influencing the outcomes of restoration and there are now several examples of successful large-scale restoration programs. A variety of tools and techniques have recently been developed that will improve the efficiency, cost effectiveness, and scalability of restoration programs. This review describes several restoration successes in Australia and New Zealand, with a focus on emerging techniques for restoration, key considerations for future programs, and highlights the benefits of increased collaboration, Traditional Owner (First Nation) and stakeholder engagement. Combined, these lessons and emerging approaches show that seagrass restoration is possible, and efforts should be directed at upscaling seagrass restoration into the future. This is critical for the future conservation of this important ecosystem and the ecological and coastal communities they support.

The relationship between ecological impact and ecosystem structure is often strongly nonlinear, so that small increases in impact levels can cause a disproportionately large response in ecosystem structure. Nonlinear ecosystem responses can be difficult to predict because locally relevant data sets can be difficult or impossible to obtain. Bayesian networks (BN) are an emerging tool that can help managers to define ecosystem relationships using a range of data types from comprehensive quantitative data sets to expert opinion. We show how a simple BN can reveal nonlinear dynamics in seagrass ecosystems using ecological relationships sourced from the literature. We first developed a conceptual diagram by cataloguing the ecological responses of seagrasses to a range of drivers and impacts. We used the conceptual diagram to develop a BN populated with values sourced from published studies. We then applied the BN to show that the amount of initial seagrass biomass has a mitigating effect on the level of impact a meadow can withstand without loss, and that meadow recovery can often require disproportionately large improvements in impact levels. This mitigating effect resulted in the middle ranges of impact levels having a wide likelihood of seagrass presence, a situation known as bistability. Finally, we applied the model in a case study to identify the risk of loss and the likelihood of recovery for the conservation and management of seagrass meadows in Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. We used the model to predict the likelihood of bistability in 23 locations in the Bay. The model predicted bistability in seven locations, most of which have experienced seagrass loss at some stage in the past 25 years providing essential information for potential future restoration efforts. Our results demonstrate the capacity of simple, flexible modeling tools to facilitate collation and synthesis of disparate information. This approach can be adopted in the initial stages of conservation programs as a low‐cost and relatively straightforward way to provide preliminary assessments of nonlinear dynamics in ecosystems.