• Energy Research

Data-driven sparse estimation of distribution factors (DFs) facilitates online power flow sensitivity analysis for secure system operation. However, existing methods are vulnerable to time-varying non-Gaussian PMU measurement noise, bad data, and uncertain renewable energy sources (RESs). Moreover, they lack scalability to large-scale systems. This two-part paper proposes a robust and scalable sparse DF estimation framework considering PMU data quality and RES uncertainty.

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of voltage to uncertain power injection variations plays an important role for appropriate Volt-VAR optimization. This paper proposes a data-driven GSA method for large-scale distribution systems with a large number of uncertain sources. Specifically, the deep Gaussian process is used to identify the mapping relationship between uncertain power injections and voltages. This allows resorting to the analysis of variance framework to calculate the Sobol indices for GSA. Unlike the existing polynomial chaos expansion and Gaussian process-based approaches, our proposed method has much better scalability. Test results on the EPRI 1747-node K1 circuit with different numbers of uncertain sources with various uncertain levels and different PV distributions demonstrate that the proposed method can achieve accurate GSA.

Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of distribution system with respect to stochastic PV and load variations plays an important role in designing optimal voltage control schemes. This paper proposes a data-driven framework for GSA of distribution system. In particular, two representative surrogate modeling-based approaches are developed, including the traditional Gaussian process-based and the analysis of variance (ANOVA) kernel ones. The key idea is to develop a surrogate model that captures the hidden global relationship between voltage and real and reactive power injections from the historical data. With the surrogate model, the Sobol indices can be conveniently calculated through either the sampling-based method or the analytical method to assess the global sensitivity of voltage to variations of load and PV power injections. The sampling-based method estimates the Sobol indices using Monte Carlo simulations while the analytical method calculates them by resorting to the ANOVA expansion framework. Comparison results with other model-based GSA methods on the unbalanced three-phase IEEE 37-bus and 123-bus distribution systems show that the proposed framework can achieve much higher computational efficiency with negligible loss of accuracy. The results on a real 240-bus distribution system using actual smart meter data further validate the feasibility and scalability of the proposed framework.