• Energy Research

Global food production depends on phosphorus. Phosphorus is broadly applied as fertilizer, but excess phosphorus contributes to eutrophication of surface water bodies and coastal ecosystems1. Here we present an analysis of phosphorus fluxes in three large river basins, including published data on fertilizer, harvested crops, sewage, food waste and river fluxes2, 3, 4. Our analyses reveal that the magnitude of phosphorus accumulation has varied greatly over the past 30–70 years in mixed agricultural–urban landscapes of the Thames Basin, UK, the Yangtze Basin, China, and the rural Maumee Basin, USA. Fluxes of phosphorus in fertilizer, harvested crops, food waste and sewage dominate over the river fluxes. Since the late 1990s, net exports from the Thames and Maumee Basins have exceeded inputs, suggesting net mobilization of the phosphorus pool accumulated in earlier decades. In contrast, the Yangtze Basin has consistently accumulated phosphorus since 1980. Infrastructure modifications such as sewage treatment and dams may explain more recent declines in total phosphorus fluxes from the Thames and Yangtze Rivers3, 4. We conclude that human-dominated river basins may undergo a prolonged but finite accumulation phase when phosphorus inputs exceed agricultural demand, and this accumulated phosphorus may continue to mobilize long after inputs decline.

Global food production depends on phosphorus. Phosphorus is broadly applied as fertilizer, but excess phosphorus contributes to eutrophication of surface water bodies and coastal ecosystems1. Here we present an analysis of phosphorus fluxes in three large river basins, including published data on fertilizer, harvested crops, sewage, food waste and river fluxes2, 3, 4. Our analyses reveal that the magnitude of phosphorus accumulation has varied greatly over the past 30–70 years in mixed agricultural–urban landscapes of the Thames Basin, UK, the Yangtze Basin, China, and the rural Maumee Basin, USA. Fluxes of phosphorus in fertilizer, harvested crops, food waste and sewage dominate over the river fluxes. Since the late 1990s, net exports from the Thames and Maumee Basins have exceeded inputs, suggesting net mobilization of the phosphorus pool accumulated in earlier decades. In contrast, the Yangtze Basin has consistently accumulated phosphorus since 1980. Infrastructure modifications such as sewage treatment and dams may explain more recent declines in total phosphorus fluxes from the Thames and Yangtze Rivers3, 4. We conclude that human-dominated river basins may undergo a prolonged but finite accumulation phase when phosphorus inputs exceed agricultural demand, and this accumulated phosphorus may continue to mobilize long after inputs decline.

Abstract The essential role of phosphorus (P) for agriculture and its impact on water quality has received decades of research attention. However, the benefits of sustainable P use and management for society due to its downstream impacts on multiple ecosystem services are rarely acknowledged. We propose a conceptual framework—the “phosphorus‐ecosystem services cascade” ()—to integrate the key ecosystem processes and functions that moderate the relationship between P released to the environment from human actions and ecosystem services at distinct spatial and temporal scales. Indirect pathways in the cascade via soil and aquatic processes link anthropogenic P to biodiversity and multiple services, including recreation, drinking water provision, and fisheries. As anthropogenic P cascades through catchments, it often shifts from a subsidy to a stressor of ecosystem services. Phosphorus stewardship can have emergent ecosystem service co‐benefits due to synergies with other societal or management goals (e.g., recycling of livestock manures and organic wastes could impact soil carbon storage). Applying the framework, we identify key research priorities to align P stewardship with the management of multiple ecosystem services, such as incorporating additional services into agri‐environmental P indices, assessing how widespread recycling of organic P sources could differentially impact agricultural yields and water quality, and accounting for shifting baselines in P stewardship due to climate change. Ultimately, P impacts depend on site‐specific agricultural and biogeophysical contexts, so greater precision in targeting stewardship strategies to specific locations would help to optimize for ecosystem services and to more effectively internalize the downstream costs of farm nutrient management.

Abstract The essential role of phosphorus (P) for agriculture and its impact on water quality has received decades of research attention. However, the benefits of sustainable P use and management for society due to its downstream impacts on multiple ecosystem services are rarely acknowledged. We propose a conceptual framework—the “phosphorus‐ecosystem services cascade” ()—to integrate the key ecosystem processes and functions that moderate the relationship between P released to the environment from human actions and ecosystem services at distinct spatial and temporal scales. Indirect pathways in the cascade via soil and aquatic processes link anthropogenic P to biodiversity and multiple services, including recreation, drinking water provision, and fisheries. As anthropogenic P cascades through catchments, it often shifts from a subsidy to a stressor of ecosystem services. Phosphorus stewardship can have emergent ecosystem service co‐benefits due to synergies with other societal or management goals (e.g., recycling of livestock manures and organic wastes could impact soil carbon storage). Applying the framework, we identify key research priorities to align P stewardship with the management of multiple ecosystem services, such as incorporating additional services into agri‐environmental P indices, assessing how widespread recycling of organic P sources could differentially impact agricultural yields and water quality, and accounting for shifting baselines in P stewardship due to climate change. Ultimately, P impacts depend on site‐specific agricultural and biogeophysical contexts, so greater precision in targeting stewardship strategies to specific locations would help to optimize for ecosystem services and to more effectively internalize the downstream costs of farm nutrient management.

Climate change is reducing winter ice cover on lakes; yet, the full societal and environmental consequences of this ice loss are poorly understood. The socioeconomic implications of declining ice include diminished access to ice-based cultural activities, safety concerns in traversing ice, changes in fisheries, increases in shoreline erosion, and declines in water storage. Longer ice-free seasons allow more time and capacity for water to warm, threatening water quality and biodiversity. Food webs likely will reorganize, with constrained availability of ice-associated and cold-water niches, and ice loss will affect the nature, magnitude, and timing of greenhouse gas emissions. Examining these rapidly emerging changes will generate more-complete models of lake dynamics, and transdisciplinary collaborations will facilitate translation to effective management and sustainability.

Climate change is reducing winter ice cover on lakes; yet, the full societal and environmental consequences of this ice loss are poorly understood. The socioeconomic implications of declining ice include diminished access to ice-based cultural activities, safety concerns in traversing ice, changes in fisheries, increases in shoreline erosion, and declines in water storage. Longer ice-free seasons allow more time and capacity for water to warm, threatening water quality and biodiversity. Food webs likely will reorganize, with constrained availability of ice-associated and cold-water niches, and ice loss will affect the nature, magnitude, and timing of greenhouse gas emissions. Examining these rapidly emerging changes will generate more-complete models of lake dynamics, and transdisciplinary collaborations will facilitate translation to effective management and sustainability.