• Energy Research

Ethiopia has experienced more than 10 major drought episodes since the 1970s. Evidence has shown that climate change exacerbates the situation and presents a daunting challenge to predominantly rain-fed agricultural livelihoods. The aim of this study was to analyze the extent and sources of smallholder famers’ livelihood vulnerability to climate change/variability in the Upper Blue Nile basin. We conducted a household survey (n = 391) across three distinct agroecological communities and a formative composite index of livelihood vulnerability (LVI) was constructed. The Mann–Kendall test and the standard precipitation index (SPI) were employed to analyze trends of rainfall, temperature, and drought prevalence for the period from 1982 to 2016. The communities across watersheds showed a relative difference in the overall livelihood vulnerability index. Aba Gerima (midland) was found to be more vulnerable, with a score of 0.37, while Guder (highland) had a relatively lower LVI with a 0.34 index score. Given similar exposure to climate variability and drought episodes, communities’ livelihood vulnerability was mainly attributed to their low adaptive capacity and higher sensitivity indicators. Adaptive capacity was largely constrained by a lack of participation in community-based organizations and a lack of income diversification. This study will have practical implications for policy development in heterogeneous agroecological regions for sustainable livelihood development and climate change adaptation programs.

Ethiopia has experienced more than 10 major drought episodes since the 1970s. Evidence has shown that climate change exacerbates the situation and presents a daunting challenge to predominantly rain-fed agricultural livelihoods. The aim of this study was to analyze the extent and sources of smallholder famers’ livelihood vulnerability to climate change/variability in the Upper Blue Nile basin. We conducted a household survey (n = 391) across three distinct agroecological communities and a formative composite index of livelihood vulnerability (LVI) was constructed. The Mann–Kendall test and the standard precipitation index (SPI) were employed to analyze trends of rainfall, temperature, and drought prevalence for the period from 1982 to 2016. The communities across watersheds showed a relative difference in the overall livelihood vulnerability index. Aba Gerima (midland) was found to be more vulnerable, with a score of 0.37, while Guder (highland) had a relatively lower LVI with a 0.34 index score. Given similar exposure to climate variability and drought episodes, communities’ livelihood vulnerability was mainly attributed to their low adaptive capacity and higher sensitivity indicators. Adaptive capacity was largely constrained by a lack of participation in community-based organizations and a lack of income diversification. This study will have practical implications for policy development in heterogeneous agroecological regions for sustainable livelihood development and climate change adaptation programs.

Land degradation poses a major threat to agricultural production and food security in Ethiopia, and sustainable land management (SLM) is key in dealing with its adverse impacts. This paper examines the covariates that shape rural livelihood diversification and examines their effects on the intensity of adoption of SLM practices. Household-level data were collected in 2017 from 270 households in three drought-prone watersheds located in northwestern Ethiopia. We used the Herfindahl–Simpson diversity index to explore the extent of livelihood diversification. A stochastic dominance ordering was also employed to identify remunerative livelihood activities. A multivariate probit model was employed to estimate the probability of choosing simultaneous livelihood strategies, and an ordered probit model was estimated to examine the effect of livelihood diversification on the adoption intensity of SLM practices. In addition to mixed cropping and livestock production, the production of emerging cash crops (e.g., Acacia decurrens for charcoal, and khat) dominated the overall income generation of the majority of farmers. Stress/shock experience, extent of agricultural intensification, and agro-ecology significantly affected the probability of choosing certain livelihood strategies. Livelihood diversification at the household level was significantly associated with the dependency ratio, market distance, credit access, extension services, membership in community organizations, level of income, and livestock ownership. A greater extent of livelihood diversification had a significant negative effect on adopting a greater number of SLM practices, whereas it had a positive effect on lower SLM adoption intensity. Overall, we found evidence that having greater livelihood diversification could prompt households not to adopt more SLM practices. Livelihood initiatives that focus on increasing shock resilience, access to financial support mechanisms, improving livestock production, and providing quality extension services, while also considering agro-ecological differences, are needed. In addition, development planners should take into account the livelihood portfolios of rural households when trying to implement SLM policies and programs.

Land degradation poses a major threat to agricultural production and food security in Ethiopia, and sustainable land management (SLM) is key in dealing with its adverse impacts. This paper examines the covariates that shape rural livelihood diversification and examines their effects on the intensity of adoption of SLM practices. Household-level data were collected in 2017 from 270 households in three drought-prone watersheds located in northwestern Ethiopia. We used the Herfindahl–Simpson diversity index to explore the extent of livelihood diversification. A stochastic dominance ordering was also employed to identify remunerative livelihood activities. A multivariate probit model was employed to estimate the probability of choosing simultaneous livelihood strategies, and an ordered probit model was estimated to examine the effect of livelihood diversification on the adoption intensity of SLM practices. In addition to mixed cropping and livestock production, the production of emerging cash crops (e.g., Acacia decurrens for charcoal, and khat) dominated the overall income generation of the majority of farmers. Stress/shock experience, extent of agricultural intensification, and agro-ecology significantly affected the probability of choosing certain livelihood strategies. Livelihood diversification at the household level was significantly associated with the dependency ratio, market distance, credit access, extension services, membership in community organizations, level of income, and livestock ownership. A greater extent of livelihood diversification had a significant negative effect on adopting a greater number of SLM practices, whereas it had a positive effect on lower SLM adoption intensity. Overall, we found evidence that having greater livelihood diversification could prompt households not to adopt more SLM practices. Livelihood initiatives that focus on increasing shock resilience, access to financial support mechanisms, improving livestock production, and providing quality extension services, while also considering agro-ecological differences, are needed. In addition, development planners should take into account the livelihood portfolios of rural households when trying to implement SLM policies and programs.