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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: orcid Rutger Dankers;
    Rutger Dankers
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Rutger Dankers in OpenAIRE
    Fred F. Hattermann; orcid bw Tadesse Alemayehu;
    Tadesse Alemayehu
    ORCID
    Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositories

    Tadesse Alemayehu in OpenAIRE
    orcid Luis Samaniego;
    Luis Samaniego
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Luis Samaniego in OpenAIRE
    +20 Authors

    Idéalement, les résultats des modèles fonctionnant à différentes échelles devraient correspondre à la direction de la tendance et à l'ampleur des impacts sous le changement climatique. Cependant, cela implique que la sensibilité à la variabilité du climat et au changement climatique est comparable pour les modèles d'impact conçus pour l'une ou l'autre échelle. Dans cette étude, nous comparons les changements hydrologiques simulés par 9 modèles hydrologiques mondiaux et 9 modèles hydrologiques régionaux (HM) pour 11 grands bassins hydrographiques sur tous les continents dans des conditions de référence et de scénario. Les thèmes principaux sont les cycles de validation des modèles, la sensibilité de la décharge annuelle à la variabilité climatique au cours de la période de référence et la sensibilité de la dynamique saisonnière mensuelle moyenne à long terme au changement climatique. Un résultat majeur est que les modèles globaux, pour la plupart non calibrés par rapport aux observations, montrent souvent un biais considérable dans les rejets mensuels moyens, alors que les modèles régionaux montrent une meilleure reproduction des conditions de référence. Cependant, la sensibilité des deux ensembles HM à la variabilité climatique est en général similaire. Les impacts simulés du changement climatique en termes de dynamique mensuelle moyenne à long terme évaluée pour les médianes et les spreads de l'ensemble HM montrent que les médianes sont dans une certaine mesure comparables dans certains cas, mais présentent des différences distinctes dans d'autres cas, et les spreads liés aux modèles globaux sont principalement nettement plus importants. En résumé, cela implique que les MM mondiaux sont des outils utiles pour examiner les impacts à grande échelle du changement et de la variabilité climatiques. Chaque fois que les impacts pour un bassin hydrographique ou une région spécifique présentent un intérêt, par exemple pour des applications complexes de gestion de l'eau, les modèles à l'échelle régionale calibrés et validés par rapport au débit observé doivent être utilisés. Idealmente, los resultados de los modelos que operan a diferentes escalas deberían coincidir en la dirección de la tendencia y la magnitud de los impactos bajo el cambio climático. Sin embargo, esto implica que la sensibilidad a la variabilidad climática y al cambio climático es comparable para los modelos de impacto diseñados para cualquier escala. En este estudio, comparamos los cambios hidrológicos simulados por 9 modelos hidrológicos (HM) globales y 9 regionales para 11 grandes cuencas fluviales en todos los continentes bajo condiciones de referencia y escenario. Los enfoques se centran en las ejecuciones de validación de modelos, la sensibilidad de la descarga anual a la variabilidad climática en el período de referencia y la sensibilidad de la dinámica estacional mensual media a largo plazo al cambio climático. Un resultado importante es que los modelos globales, en su mayoría no calibrados contra los observados, a menudo muestran un sesgo considerable en la descarga mensual media, mientras que los modelos regionales muestran una mejor reproducción de las condiciones de referencia. Sin embargo, la sensibilidad de los dos conjuntos HM a la variabilidad climática es en general similar. Los impactos simulados del cambio climático en términos de dinámica mensual promedio a largo plazo evaluados para las medianas y los diferenciales del conjunto HM muestran que las medianas son en cierta medida comparables en algunos casos, pero tienen diferencias claras en otros casos, y los diferenciales relacionados con los modelos globales son en su mayoría notablemente mayores. En resumen, esto implica que los HM globales son herramientas útiles cuando se analizan los impactos a gran escala del cambio climático y la variabilidad. Siempre que los impactos para una cuenca o región fluvial específica sean de interés, por ejemplo, para aplicaciones complejas de gestión del agua, se deben utilizar los modelos a escala regional calibrados y validados frente a los vertidos observados. Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used. من الناحية المثالية، يجب أن تتفق النتائج من النماذج التي تعمل على مستويات مختلفة في اتجاه الاتجاه وحجم التأثيرات في ظل تغير المناخ. ومع ذلك، فإن هذا يعني أن الحساسية لتقلب المناخ وتغير المناخ قابلة للمقارنة مع نماذج التأثير المصممة لأي من المقياسين. في هذه الدراسة، نقارن التغيرات الهيدرولوجية التي تمت محاكاتها بواسطة 9 نماذج هيدرولوجية عالمية و 9 نماذج هيدرولوجية إقليمية لـ 11 حوضًا نهريًا كبيرًا في جميع القارات في ظل الظروف المرجعية والسيناريوهات. تعمل البؤر على تشغيل التحقق من صحة النموذج، وحساسية التصريف السنوي لتقلب المناخ في الفترة المرجعية، وحساسية متوسط الديناميكيات الموسمية الشهرية طويلة الأجل لتغير المناخ. تتمثل إحدى النتائج الرئيسية في أن النماذج العالمية، التي لا تتم معايرتها في الغالب مقابل الملاحظات، غالبًا ما تُظهر تحيزًا كبيرًا في متوسط التصريف الشهري، في حين تُظهر النماذج الإقليمية استنساخًا أفضل للظروف المرجعية. ومع ذلك، فإن حساسية مجموعتي جلالة الملكة لتقلب المناخ متشابهة بشكل عام. تُظهر تأثيرات تغير المناخ المحاكاة من حيث متوسط الديناميكيات الشهرية طويلة الأجل التي تم تقييمها لمتوسطات مجموعة جلالة الملكة وانتشارها أن المتوسطات قابلة للمقارنة إلى حد ما في بعض الحالات، ولكن لها اختلافات واضحة في حالات أخرى، وأن فروق الأسعار المتعلقة بالنماذج العالمية هي في الغالب أكبر بشكل ملحوظ. وبإيجاز، يعني هذا أن جلطات الدم العالمية هي أدوات مفيدة عند النظر إلى الآثار واسعة النطاق لتغير المناخ وتقلباته. عندما تكون التأثيرات على حوض نهر أو منطقة معينة ذات أهمية، على سبيل المثال بالنسبة لتطبيقات إدارة المياه المعقدة، يجب استخدام نماذج النطاق الإقليمي التي تمت معايرتها والتحقق من صحتها مقابل التصريف المرصود.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Nottingham Research ...arrow_drop_down
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Nottingham ePrints
    Article . 2017
    License: University of Nottingham Institutional Repository End-User
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Climatic Change
    Article
    Data sources: UnpayWall
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Climatic Change
    Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Springer TDM
    Data sources: Crossref
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/xj...
    Other literature type . 2017
    Data sources: Datacite
    https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/yd...
    Other literature type . 2017
    Data sources: Datacite
    IIASA PURE
    Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
    Data sources: IIASA PURE
    addClaim
    Access Routes
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    156
    citations156
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: orcid Rutger Dankers;
    Rutger Dankers
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Rutger Dankers in OpenAIRE
    Fred F. Hattermann; orcid bw Tadesse Alemayehu;
    Tadesse Alemayehu
    ORCID
    Derived by OpenAIRE algorithms or harvested from 3rd party repositories

    Tadesse Alemayehu in OpenAIRE
    orcid Luis Samaniego;
    Luis Samaniego
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Luis Samaniego in OpenAIRE
    +20 Authors

    Idéalement, les résultats des modèles fonctionnant à différentes échelles devraient correspondre à la direction de la tendance et à l'ampleur des impacts sous le changement climatique. Cependant, cela implique que la sensibilité à la variabilité du climat et au changement climatique est comparable pour les modèles d'impact conçus pour l'une ou l'autre échelle. Dans cette étude, nous comparons les changements hydrologiques simulés par 9 modèles hydrologiques mondiaux et 9 modèles hydrologiques régionaux (HM) pour 11 grands bassins hydrographiques sur tous les continents dans des conditions de référence et de scénario. Les thèmes principaux sont les cycles de validation des modèles, la sensibilité de la décharge annuelle à la variabilité climatique au cours de la période de référence et la sensibilité de la dynamique saisonnière mensuelle moyenne à long terme au changement climatique. Un résultat majeur est que les modèles globaux, pour la plupart non calibrés par rapport aux observations, montrent souvent un biais considérable dans les rejets mensuels moyens, alors que les modèles régionaux montrent une meilleure reproduction des conditions de référence. Cependant, la sensibilité des deux ensembles HM à la variabilité climatique est en général similaire. Les impacts simulés du changement climatique en termes de dynamique mensuelle moyenne à long terme évaluée pour les médianes et les spreads de l'ensemble HM montrent que les médianes sont dans une certaine mesure comparables dans certains cas, mais présentent des différences distinctes dans d'autres cas, et les spreads liés aux modèles globaux sont principalement nettement plus importants. En résumé, cela implique que les MM mondiaux sont des outils utiles pour examiner les impacts à grande échelle du changement et de la variabilité climatiques. Chaque fois que les impacts pour un bassin hydrographique ou une région spécifique présentent un intérêt, par exemple pour des applications complexes de gestion de l'eau, les modèles à l'échelle régionale calibrés et validés par rapport au débit observé doivent être utilisés. Idealmente, los resultados de los modelos que operan a diferentes escalas deberían coincidir en la dirección de la tendencia y la magnitud de los impactos bajo el cambio climático. Sin embargo, esto implica que la sensibilidad a la variabilidad climática y al cambio climático es comparable para los modelos de impacto diseñados para cualquier escala. En este estudio, comparamos los cambios hidrológicos simulados por 9 modelos hidrológicos (HM) globales y 9 regionales para 11 grandes cuencas fluviales en todos los continentes bajo condiciones de referencia y escenario. Los enfoques se centran en las ejecuciones de validación de modelos, la sensibilidad de la descarga anual a la variabilidad climática en el período de referencia y la sensibilidad de la dinámica estacional mensual media a largo plazo al cambio climático. Un resultado importante es que los modelos globales, en su mayoría no calibrados contra los observados, a menudo muestran un sesgo considerable en la descarga mensual media, mientras que los modelos regionales muestran una mejor reproducción de las condiciones de referencia. Sin embargo, la sensibilidad de los dos conjuntos HM a la variabilidad climática es en general similar. Los impactos simulados del cambio climático en términos de dinámica mensual promedio a largo plazo evaluados para las medianas y los diferenciales del conjunto HM muestran que las medianas son en cierta medida comparables en algunos casos, pero tienen diferencias claras en otros casos, y los diferenciales relacionados con los modelos globales son en su mayoría notablemente mayores. En resumen, esto implica que los HM globales son herramientas útiles cuando se analizan los impactos a gran escala del cambio climático y la variabilidad. Siempre que los impactos para una cuenca o región fluvial específica sean de interés, por ejemplo, para aplicaciones complejas de gestión del agua, se deben utilizar los modelos a escala regional calibrados y validados frente a los vertidos observados. Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used. من الناحية المثالية، يجب أن تتفق النتائج من النماذج التي تعمل على مستويات مختلفة في اتجاه الاتجاه وحجم التأثيرات في ظل تغير المناخ. ومع ذلك، فإن هذا يعني أن الحساسية لتقلب المناخ وتغير المناخ قابلة للمقارنة مع نماذج التأثير المصممة لأي من المقياسين. في هذه الدراسة، نقارن التغيرات الهيدرولوجية التي تمت محاكاتها بواسطة 9 نماذج هيدرولوجية عالمية و 9 نماذج هيدرولوجية إقليمية لـ 11 حوضًا نهريًا كبيرًا في جميع القارات في ظل الظروف المرجعية والسيناريوهات. تعمل البؤر على تشغيل التحقق من صحة النموذج، وحساسية التصريف السنوي لتقلب المناخ في الفترة المرجعية، وحساسية متوسط الديناميكيات الموسمية الشهرية طويلة الأجل لتغير المناخ. تتمثل إحدى النتائج الرئيسية في أن النماذج العالمية، التي لا تتم معايرتها في الغالب مقابل الملاحظات، غالبًا ما تُظهر تحيزًا كبيرًا في متوسط التصريف الشهري، في حين تُظهر النماذج الإقليمية استنساخًا أفضل للظروف المرجعية. ومع ذلك، فإن حساسية مجموعتي جلالة الملكة لتقلب المناخ متشابهة بشكل عام. تُظهر تأثيرات تغير المناخ المحاكاة من حيث متوسط الديناميكيات الشهرية طويلة الأجل التي تم تقييمها لمتوسطات مجموعة جلالة الملكة وانتشارها أن المتوسطات قابلة للمقارنة إلى حد ما في بعض الحالات، ولكن لها اختلافات واضحة في حالات أخرى، وأن فروق الأسعار المتعلقة بالنماذج العالمية هي في الغالب أكبر بشكل ملحوظ. وبإيجاز، يعني هذا أن جلطات الدم العالمية هي أدوات مفيدة عند النظر إلى الآثار واسعة النطاق لتغير المناخ وتقلباته. عندما تكون التأثيرات على حوض نهر أو منطقة معينة ذات أهمية، على سبيل المثال بالنسبة لتطبيقات إدارة المياه المعقدة، يجب استخدام نماذج النطاق الإقليمي التي تمت معايرتها والتحقق من صحتها مقابل التصريف المرصود.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Nottingham Research ...arrow_drop_down
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Nottingham ePrints
    Article . 2017
    License: University of Nottingham Institutional Repository End-User
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Climatic Change
    Article
    Data sources: UnpayWall
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    Climatic Change
    Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Springer TDM
    Data sources: Crossref
    image/svg+xml Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao Closed Access logo, derived from PLoS Open Access logo. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Closed_Access_logo_transparent.svg Jakob Voss, based on art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina and Beao
    https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/xj...
    Other literature type . 2017
    Data sources: Datacite
    https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/yd...
    Other literature type . 2017
    Data sources: Datacite
    IIASA PURE
    Article . 2017 . Peer-reviewed
    Data sources: IIASA PURE
    addClaim
    Access Routes
    Green
    bronze
    156
    citations156
    popularityTop 1%
    influenceTop 10%
    impulseTop 1%
    BIP!Powered by BIP!
    more_vert
  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Julio Tota; orcid Fernando César Almada Santos;
    Fernando César Almada Santos
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Fernando César Almada Santos in OpenAIRE
    Saewung Kim; orcid John E. Shilling;
    John E. Shilling
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    John E. Shilling in OpenAIRE
    +21 Authors

    AbstractIsoprene dominates global non-methane volatile organic compound emissions, and impacts tropospheric chemistry by influencing oxidants and aerosols. Isoprene emission rates vary over several orders of magnitude for different plants, and characterizing this immense biological chemodiversity is a challenge for estimating isoprene emission from tropical forests. Here we present the isoprene emission estimates from aircraft eddy covariance measurements over the Amazonian forest. We report isoprene emission rates that are three times higher than satellite top-down estimates and 35% higher than model predictions. The results reveal strong correlations between observed isoprene emission rates and terrain elevations, which are confirmed by similar correlations between satellite-derived isoprene emissions and terrain elevations. We propose that the elevational gradient in the Amazonian forest isoprene emission capacity is determined by plant species distributions and can substantially explain isoprene emission variability in tropical forests, and use a model to demonstrate the resulting impacts on regional air quality.

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    Authors: Julio Tota; orcid Fernando César Almada Santos;
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    Saewung Kim; orcid John E. Shilling;
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    John E. Shilling in OpenAIRE
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    AbstractIsoprene dominates global non-methane volatile organic compound emissions, and impacts tropospheric chemistry by influencing oxidants and aerosols. Isoprene emission rates vary over several orders of magnitude for different plants, and characterizing this immense biological chemodiversity is a challenge for estimating isoprene emission from tropical forests. Here we present the isoprene emission estimates from aircraft eddy covariance measurements over the Amazonian forest. We report isoprene emission rates that are three times higher than satellite top-down estimates and 35% higher than model predictions. The results reveal strong correlations between observed isoprene emission rates and terrain elevations, which are confirmed by similar correlations between satellite-derived isoprene emissions and terrain elevations. We propose that the elevational gradient in the Amazonian forest isoprene emission capacity is determined by plant species distributions and can substantially explain isoprene emission variability in tropical forests, and use a model to demonstrate the resulting impacts on regional air quality.

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    Authors: orcid Guoyong Leng;
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    Temperature is known to be correlated with crop yields, causing reduction of crop yield with climate warming without adaptations or CO2 fertilization effects. The historical temperature-crop yield relation has often been used for informing future changes. This relationship, however, may change over time following alternations in other environmental factors. Results show that the strength of the relationship between the interannual variability of growing season temperature and corn yield (RGST_CY) has declined in the United States between 1980 and 2010 with a loss in the statistical significance. The regression slope which represents the anomalies in corn yield that occur in association with 1 degree temperature anomaly has decreased significantly from -6.9%/K of the first half period to -2.4%/K--3.5%/K of the second half period. This implies that projected corn yield reduction will be overestimated by a fact of 2 in a given warming scenario, if the corn-temperature relation is derived from the earlier historical period. Changes in RGST_CY are mainly observed in Midwest Corn Belt and central High Plains, but are partly reproduced by 11 process-based crop models. In Midwest rain-fed systems, the decrease of negative temperature effects coincides with an increase in water availability by precipitation. In irrigated areas where water stress is minimized, the decline of beneficial temperature effects is significantly related to the increase in extreme hot days. The results indicate that an extrapolation of historical yield response to temperature may bias the assessment of agriculture vulnerability to climate change. Efforts to reduce climate impacts on agriculture should pay attention not only to climate change, but also to changes in climate-crop yield relations. There are some caveats that should be acknowledged as the analysis is restricted to the changes in the linear relation between growing season mean temperature and corn yield for the specific study period.

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    The Science of The Total Environment
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    Temperature is known to be correlated with crop yields, causing reduction of crop yield with climate warming without adaptations or CO2 fertilization effects. The historical temperature-crop yield relation has often been used for informing future changes. This relationship, however, may change over time following alternations in other environmental factors. Results show that the strength of the relationship between the interannual variability of growing season temperature and corn yield (RGST_CY) has declined in the United States between 1980 and 2010 with a loss in the statistical significance. The regression slope which represents the anomalies in corn yield that occur in association with 1 degree temperature anomaly has decreased significantly from -6.9%/K of the first half period to -2.4%/K--3.5%/K of the second half period. This implies that projected corn yield reduction will be overestimated by a fact of 2 in a given warming scenario, if the corn-temperature relation is derived from the earlier historical period. Changes in RGST_CY are mainly observed in Midwest Corn Belt and central High Plains, but are partly reproduced by 11 process-based crop models. In Midwest rain-fed systems, the decrease of negative temperature effects coincides with an increase in water availability by precipitation. In irrigated areas where water stress is minimized, the decline of beneficial temperature effects is significantly related to the increase in extreme hot days. The results indicate that an extrapolation of historical yield response to temperature may bias the assessment of agriculture vulnerability to climate change. Efforts to reduce climate impacts on agriculture should pay attention not only to climate change, but also to changes in climate-crop yield relations. There are some caveats that should be acknowledged as the analysis is restricted to the changes in the linear relation between growing season mean temperature and corn yield for the specific study period.

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    A key challenge to environmental flow assessment in many rivers is to evaluate how much of the discharge flow should be retained in the river in order to maintain the integrity and valued features of riverine ecosystems. With the increasing impact of climate change and human activities on riverine ecosystems, the natural flow regime paradigm in many rivers has become non-stationary conditions, which is a new challenge to the assessment of environmental flow. This study presents a useful framework to (1) detect change points in runoff time series using two statistical methods (Mann-Kendall test method and heuristic segmentation method), (2) adjust data of the changed period against the original flow series into a stationary condition using a procedure of reconstruction; and (3) incorporate inter- and intra-annual streamflow variability with adjusted streamflow to evaluate environmental flow. The Jialing to Han inter-basin water transfer project was selected as the case study. Results indicate that a change point of 1994 was identified, revealing that the stationarity of annual streamflow series is invalid. The variations of reconstructed streamflow series are roughly consistent with original streamflow series, especially in the maximum/minimum values and rise/fall rates, but the mean value of reconstructed streamflow series is increased. The reconstructed streamflow series would further serve to eliminate the non-stationary of original streamflow, and incorporating the inter- and intra-annual variability would upgrade the ecosystem fitness. Selecting different criteria for the conservation of riverine ecosystems can have significantly different consequences, and we should not focus on the protection of specific objectives that will inevitably affect other aspects. This study provides a useful framework for environmental flow assessment and can be applied to a wide range of instream flow management approaches to protect the riverine ecosystem.

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    Authors: orcid Kang Ren;
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    Qiang Huang; orcid Hao Wang;
    Hao Wang
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    Hao Wang in OpenAIRE
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    A key challenge to environmental flow assessment in many rivers is to evaluate how much of the discharge flow should be retained in the river in order to maintain the integrity and valued features of riverine ecosystems. With the increasing impact of climate change and human activities on riverine ecosystems, the natural flow regime paradigm in many rivers has become non-stationary conditions, which is a new challenge to the assessment of environmental flow. This study presents a useful framework to (1) detect change points in runoff time series using two statistical methods (Mann-Kendall test method and heuristic segmentation method), (2) adjust data of the changed period against the original flow series into a stationary condition using a procedure of reconstruction; and (3) incorporate inter- and intra-annual streamflow variability with adjusted streamflow to evaluate environmental flow. The Jialing to Han inter-basin water transfer project was selected as the case study. Results indicate that a change point of 1994 was identified, revealing that the stationarity of annual streamflow series is invalid. The variations of reconstructed streamflow series are roughly consistent with original streamflow series, especially in the maximum/minimum values and rise/fall rates, but the mean value of reconstructed streamflow series is increased. The reconstructed streamflow series would further serve to eliminate the non-stationary of original streamflow, and incorporating the inter- and intra-annual variability would upgrade the ecosystem fitness. Selecting different criteria for the conservation of riverine ecosystems can have significantly different consequences, and we should not focus on the protection of specific objectives that will inevitably affect other aspects. This study provides a useful framework for environmental flow assessment and can be applied to a wide range of instream flow management approaches to protect the riverine ecosystem.

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    AbstractThe linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40% by 2050 s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. This has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.

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    AbstractThe linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40% by 2050 s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. This has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.

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    Authors: orcid Leng, G;
    Leng, G
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Leng, G in OpenAIRE
    Hall, J;

    Understanding the potential drought impacts on agricultural production is critical for ensuring global food security. Instead of providing a deterministic estimate, this study investigates the likelihood of yield loss of wheat, maize, rice and soybeans in response to droughts of various intensities in the 10 largest producing countries. We use crop-country specific standardized precipitation index (SPI) and census yield data for 1961-2016 to build a probabilistic modeling framework for estimating yield loss risk under a moderate (-1.2 80% probability that wheat production will fall below its long-term average when experiencing an exceptional drought, especially in USA and Canada. As for maize, India shows the highest risk of yield reduction under droughts, while rice is the crop that is most vulnerable to droughts in Vietnam and Thailand. Risk of drought-driven soybean yield loss is the highest in USA, Russian and India. Yield loss risk tends to grow faster when experiencing a shift in drought severity from moderate to severe than that from extreme to the exceptional category, demonstrating the non-linear response of yield to the increase in drought severity. Sensitivity analysis shows that temperature plays an important role in determining drought impacts, through reducing or amplifying drought-driven yield loss risk. Compared to present conditions, an ensemble of 11 crop models simulated an increase in yield loss risk by 9%-12%, 5.6%-6.3%, 18.1%-19.4% and 15.1%-16.1 for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans by the end of 21st century, respectively, without considering the benefits of CO2 fertilization and adaptations. This study highlights the non-linear response of yield loss risk to the increase in drought severity. This implies that adaptations should be more targeted, considering not only the crop type and region but also the specific drought severity of interest.

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    The Science of The Total Environment
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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    The Science of The Total Environment
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    PubMed Central
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      The Science of The Total Environment
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    Authors: orcid Leng, G;
    Leng, G
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Leng, G in OpenAIRE
    Hall, J;

    Understanding the potential drought impacts on agricultural production is critical for ensuring global food security. Instead of providing a deterministic estimate, this study investigates the likelihood of yield loss of wheat, maize, rice and soybeans in response to droughts of various intensities in the 10 largest producing countries. We use crop-country specific standardized precipitation index (SPI) and census yield data for 1961-2016 to build a probabilistic modeling framework for estimating yield loss risk under a moderate (-1.2 80% probability that wheat production will fall below its long-term average when experiencing an exceptional drought, especially in USA and Canada. As for maize, India shows the highest risk of yield reduction under droughts, while rice is the crop that is most vulnerable to droughts in Vietnam and Thailand. Risk of drought-driven soybean yield loss is the highest in USA, Russian and India. Yield loss risk tends to grow faster when experiencing a shift in drought severity from moderate to severe than that from extreme to the exceptional category, demonstrating the non-linear response of yield to the increase in drought severity. Sensitivity analysis shows that temperature plays an important role in determining drought impacts, through reducing or amplifying drought-driven yield loss risk. Compared to present conditions, an ensemble of 11 crop models simulated an increase in yield loss risk by 9%-12%, 5.6%-6.3%, 18.1%-19.4% and 15.1%-16.1 for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans by the end of 21st century, respectively, without considering the benefits of CO2 fertilization and adaptations. This study highlights the non-linear response of yield loss risk to the increase in drought severity. This implies that adaptations should be more targeted, considering not only the crop type and region but also the specific drought severity of interest.

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    The Science of The Total Environment
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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    The Science of The Total Environment
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      The Science of The Total Environment
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      The Science of The Total Environment
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    Authors: Yadu Pokhrel; orcid Yusuke Satoh;
    Yusuke Satoh
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Yusuke Satoh in OpenAIRE
    orcid Dieter Gerten;
    Dieter Gerten
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Dieter Gerten in OpenAIRE
    Dieter Gerten; +19 Authors

    Global-scale hydrological models are routinely used to assess water scarcity, flood hazards and droughts worldwide. Recent efforts to incorporate anthropogenic activities in these models have enabled more realistic comparisons with observations. Here we evaluate simulations from an ensemble of six models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We simulate monthly runoff in 40 catchments, spatially distributed across eight global hydrobelts. The performance of each model and the ensemble mean is examined with respect to their ability to replicate observed mean and extreme runoff under human-influenced conditions. Application of a novel integrated evaluation metric to quantify the models' ability to simulate timeseries of monthly runoff suggests that the models generally perform better in the wetter equatorial and northern hydrobelts than in drier southern hydrobelts. When model outputs are temporally aggregated to assess mean annual and extreme runoff, the models perform better. Nevertheless, we find a general trend in the majority of models towards the overestimation of mean annual runoff and all indicators of upper and lower extreme runoff. The models struggle to capture the timing of the seasonal cycle, particularly in northern hydrobelts, while in southern hydrobelts the models struggle to reproduce the magnitude of the seasonal cycle. It is noteworthy that over all hydrological indicators, the ensemble mean fails to perform better than any individual model—a finding that challenges the commonly held perception that model ensemble estimates deliver superior performance over individual models. The study highlights the need for continued model development and improvement. It also suggests that caution should be taken when summarising the simulations from a model ensemble based upon its mean output. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (6) ISSN:1748-9326 ISSN:1748-9318

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    Environmental Research Letters
    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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    Environmental Research Letters
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    Environmental Research Letters
    Article . 2018
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      Environmental Research Letters
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    Authors: Yadu Pokhrel; orcid Yusuke Satoh;
    Yusuke Satoh
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Yusuke Satoh in OpenAIRE
    orcid Dieter Gerten;
    Dieter Gerten
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Dieter Gerten in OpenAIRE
    Dieter Gerten; +19 Authors

    Global-scale hydrological models are routinely used to assess water scarcity, flood hazards and droughts worldwide. Recent efforts to incorporate anthropogenic activities in these models have enabled more realistic comparisons with observations. Here we evaluate simulations from an ensemble of six models participating in the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISIMIP2a). We simulate monthly runoff in 40 catchments, spatially distributed across eight global hydrobelts. The performance of each model and the ensemble mean is examined with respect to their ability to replicate observed mean and extreme runoff under human-influenced conditions. Application of a novel integrated evaluation metric to quantify the models' ability to simulate timeseries of monthly runoff suggests that the models generally perform better in the wetter equatorial and northern hydrobelts than in drier southern hydrobelts. When model outputs are temporally aggregated to assess mean annual and extreme runoff, the models perform better. Nevertheless, we find a general trend in the majority of models towards the overestimation of mean annual runoff and all indicators of upper and lower extreme runoff. The models struggle to capture the timing of the seasonal cycle, particularly in northern hydrobelts, while in southern hydrobelts the models struggle to reproduce the magnitude of the seasonal cycle. It is noteworthy that over all hydrological indicators, the ensemble mean fails to perform better than any individual model—a finding that challenges the commonly held perception that model ensemble estimates deliver superior performance over individual models. The study highlights the need for continued model development and improvement. It also suggests that caution should be taken when summarising the simulations from a model ensemble based upon its mean output. Environmental Research Letters, 13 (6) ISSN:1748-9326 ISSN:1748-9318

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    Environmental Research Letters
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    Environmental Research Letters
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      Environmental Research Letters
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: orcid Guoyong Leng;
    Guoyong Leng
    ORCID
    Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

    Guoyong Leng in OpenAIRE

    Abstract The negative drought impacts on crop yield are well recognized in the literature, but are evaluated mainly in a deterministic manner. Considering the randomness feature of droughts and the compounding effects of other factors, we hypothesize that droughts effects on yields are probabilistic especially for assessment in large geographical regions. Taking US maize yield as an example, we found that a moderate, severe, extreme and exceptional drought event (based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) would lead to a yield loss risk (i.e. the probability of yield reduction lower than expected value) of 64.3%, 69.9%, 73.6%, and 78.1%, respectively, with hotspots identified in Central and Southeastern US. Irrigation has reduced yield loss risk by 10%–27%, with the benefit magnitude depending on the drought intensity. Evaluations of eight process crop models indicate that they can well reproduce observed drought risks for the country as a whole, but show difficult in capturing the spatial distribution patterns. The results highlight the diverse risk pattern in response to a drought event of specific intensity, and emphasize the need for better representation of drought effects in process models at local scales. The analysis framework developed in this study is novel in that it allows for an event-based assessment of drought effects in a risk manner in both observations and process crop models. Such information is valuable not only for robust decision-makings but also for the insurance sector, which typically require the risk information rather than a single value of outcome especially given the uncertainty of drought effects.

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    Environmental Research Letters
    Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
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    Environmental Research Letters
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      Environmental Research Letters
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      Environmental Research Letters
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      Environmental Research Letters
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    Authors: orcid Guoyong Leng;
    Guoyong Leng
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    Guoyong Leng in OpenAIRE

    Abstract The negative drought impacts on crop yield are well recognized in the literature, but are evaluated mainly in a deterministic manner. Considering the randomness feature of droughts and the compounding effects of other factors, we hypothesize that droughts effects on yields are probabilistic especially for assessment in large geographical regions. Taking US maize yield as an example, we found that a moderate, severe, extreme and exceptional drought event (based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) would lead to a yield loss risk (i.e. the probability of yield reduction lower than expected value) of 64.3%, 69.9%, 73.6%, and 78.1%, respectively, with hotspots identified in Central and Southeastern US. Irrigation has reduced yield loss risk by 10%–27%, with the benefit magnitude depending on the drought intensity. Evaluations of eight process crop models indicate that they can well reproduce observed drought risks for the country as a whole, but show difficult in capturing the spatial distribution patterns. The results highlight the diverse risk pattern in response to a drought event of specific intensity, and emphasize the need for better representation of drought effects in process models at local scales. The analysis framework developed in this study is novel in that it allows for an event-based assessment of drought effects in a risk manner in both observations and process crop models. Such information is valuable not only for robust decision-makings but also for the insurance sector, which typically require the risk information rather than a single value of outcome especially given the uncertainty of drought effects.

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    Environmental Research Letters
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    Environmental Research Letters
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    Environmental Research Letters
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      Environmental Research Letters
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      Environmental Research Letters
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      Environmental Research Letters
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