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description Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Journal 2020 Argentina, Argentina, United Kingdom, Spain, France, Germany, United Kingdom, France, United Kingdom, Spain, United Kingdom, South AfricaPublisher:American Meteorological Society Funded by:EC | INPhINITEC| INPhINITMerryfield, William; Baehr, Johanna; Batté, Lauriane; Becker, Emily; Butler, Amy; Coelho, Caio; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Dirmeyer, Paul; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Domeisen, Daniela; Ferranti, Laura; Ilynia, Tatiana; Kumar, Arun; Müller, Wolfgang; Rixen, Michel; Robertson, Andrew; Smith, Doug; Takaya, Yuhei; Tuma, Matthias; Vitart, Frederic; White, Christopher; Alvarez, Mariano; Ardilouze, Constantin; Attard, Hannah; Baggett, Cory; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Beraki, Asmerom; Bhattacharjee, Partha; Bilbao, Roberto; de Andrade, Felipe; Deflorio, Michael; Díaz, Leandro; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Fragkoulidis, Georgios; Gonzalez, Alex; Grainger, Sam; Green, Benjamin; Hell, Momme; Infanti, Johnna; Isensee, Katharina; Kataoka, Takahito; Kirtman, Ben; Klingaman, Nicholas; Lee, June-Yi; Mayer, Kirsten; Mckay, Roseanna; Mecking, Jennifer; Miller, Douglas; Neddermann, Nele; Justin Ng, Ching Ho; Ossó, Albert; Pankatz, Klaus; Peatman, Simon; Pegion, Kathy; Perlwitz, Judith; Recalde-Coronel, G. Cristina; Reintges, Annika; Renkl, Christoph; Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan; Spring, Aaron; Stan, Cristiana; Sun, Y. Qiang; Tozer, Carly; Vigaud, Nicolas; Woolnough, Steven; Yeager, Stephen;handle: 11336/150980 , 2117/185086 , 2263/80103
Abstract Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere–ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.
CORE arrow_drop_down Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTAArticle . 2020Data sources: Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTAUPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCArticle . 2020Data sources: UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: CrossrefBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: European Union Open Data PortalNatural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research ArchiveArticle . 2020Data sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
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For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 126 citations 126 popularity Top 1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 1% Powered by BIP!
visibility 62visibility views 62 download downloads 45 Powered bymore_vert CORE arrow_drop_down Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTAArticle . 2020Data sources: Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTAUPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCArticle . 2020Data sources: UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: CrossrefBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: European Union Open Data PortalNatural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research ArchiveArticle . 2020Data sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1175/bams-d-19-0037.1&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article 2022 Norway, SpainPublisher:American Meteorological Society Funded by:EC | EUCPEC| EUCPHermanson, Leon; Smith, Doug; Seabrook, Melissa; Bilbao, Roberto; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Tourigny, Etienne; Lapin, Vladimir; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Merryfield, William J.; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Athanasiadis, Panos; Nicoli, Dario; Gualdi, Silvio; Dunstone, Nick; Eade, Rosie; Scaife, Adam; Collier, Mark; O'Kane, Terence; Kitsios, Vassili; Sandery, Paul; Pankatz, Klaus; Früh, Barbara; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang; Kataoka, Takahito; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Ishii, Masayoshi; Imada, Yukiko; Kruschke, Tim; Koenigk, Torben; Karami, Mehdi Pasha; Yang, Shuting; Tian, Tian; Zhang, Liping; Delworth, Tom; Yang, Xiaosong; Zeng, Fanrong; Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Bethke, Ingo; Lean, Judith; Luterbacher, Jürg; Kolli, Rupa Kumar; Kumar, Arun;Abstract As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential to inform current adaptation and increase resilience by filling the important gap between seasonal forecasts and climate projections. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recognized this and in 2017 established the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Predictions (shortened to “Lead Centre” below), which annually provides a large multimodel ensemble of predictions covering the next 5 years. This international collaboration produces a prediction that is more skillful and useful than any single center can achieve. One of the main outputs of the Lead Centre is the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (GADCU), a consensus forecast based on these predictions. This update includes maps showing key variables, discussion on forecast skill, and predictions of climate indices such as the global mean near-surface temperature and Atlantic multidecadal variability. it also estimates the probability of the global mean temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least 1 year in the next 5 years, which helps policy-makers understand how closely the world is approaching this goal of the Paris Agreement. This paper, written by the authors of the GADCU, introduces the GADCU, presents its key outputs, and briefly discusses its role in providing vital climate information for society now and in the future.
Universitat Politècn... arrow_drop_down Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTAArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTAUPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCDigitala Vetenskapliga Arkivet - Academic Archive On-lineArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedBergen Open Research Archive - UiBArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: Bergen Open Research Archive - UiBBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: CrossrefBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: European Union Open Data PortalUniversity of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB)Article . 2022Data sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1175/bams-d-20-0311.1&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 30 citations 30 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!
visibility 55visibility views 55 download downloads 7 Powered bymore_vert Universitat Politècn... arrow_drop_down Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTAArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTAUPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCDigitala Vetenskapliga Arkivet - Academic Archive On-lineArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedBergen Open Research Archive - UiBArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: Bergen Open Research Archive - UiBBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: CrossrefBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: European Union Open Data PortalUniversity of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB)Article . 2022Data sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1175/bams-d-20-0311.1&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu
description Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Journal 2020 Argentina, Argentina, United Kingdom, Spain, France, Germany, United Kingdom, France, United Kingdom, Spain, United Kingdom, South AfricaPublisher:American Meteorological Society Funded by:EC | INPhINITEC| INPhINITMerryfield, William; Baehr, Johanna; Batté, Lauriane; Becker, Emily; Butler, Amy; Coelho, Caio; Danabasoglu, Gokhan; Dirmeyer, Paul; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Domeisen, Daniela; Ferranti, Laura; Ilynia, Tatiana; Kumar, Arun; Müller, Wolfgang; Rixen, Michel; Robertson, Andrew; Smith, Doug; Takaya, Yuhei; Tuma, Matthias; Vitart, Frederic; White, Christopher; Alvarez, Mariano; Ardilouze, Constantin; Attard, Hannah; Baggett, Cory; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Beraki, Asmerom; Bhattacharjee, Partha; Bilbao, Roberto; de Andrade, Felipe; Deflorio, Michael; Díaz, Leandro; Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Fragkoulidis, Georgios; Gonzalez, Alex; Grainger, Sam; Green, Benjamin; Hell, Momme; Infanti, Johnna; Isensee, Katharina; Kataoka, Takahito; Kirtman, Ben; Klingaman, Nicholas; Lee, June-Yi; Mayer, Kirsten; Mckay, Roseanna; Mecking, Jennifer; Miller, Douglas; Neddermann, Nele; Justin Ng, Ching Ho; Ossó, Albert; Pankatz, Klaus; Peatman, Simon; Pegion, Kathy; Perlwitz, Judith; Recalde-Coronel, G. Cristina; Reintges, Annika; Renkl, Christoph; Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan; Spring, Aaron; Stan, Cristiana; Sun, Y. Qiang; Tozer, Carly; Vigaud, Nicolas; Woolnough, Steven; Yeager, Stephen;handle: 11336/150980 , 2117/185086 , 2263/80103
Abstract Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere–ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.
CORE arrow_drop_down Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTAArticle . 2020Data sources: Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTAUPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCArticle . 2020Data sources: UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: CrossrefBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: European Union Open Data PortalNatural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research ArchiveArticle . 2020Data sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1175/bams-d-19-0037.1&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 126 citations 126 popularity Top 1% influence Top 10% impulse Top 1% Powered by BIP!
visibility 62visibility views 62 download downloads 45 Powered bymore_vert CORE arrow_drop_down Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTAArticle . 2020Data sources: Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTAUPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCArticle . 2020Data sources: UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: CrossrefBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyArticle . 2020 . Peer-reviewedData sources: European Union Open Data PortalNatural Environment Research Council: NERC Open Research ArchiveArticle . 2020Data sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1175/bams-d-19-0037.1&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eudescription Publicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article 2022 Norway, SpainPublisher:American Meteorological Society Funded by:EC | EUCPEC| EUCPHermanson, Leon; Smith, Doug; Seabrook, Melissa; Bilbao, Roberto; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Tourigny, Etienne; Lapin, Vladimir; Kharin, Viatcheslav V.; Merryfield, William J.; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Athanasiadis, Panos; Nicoli, Dario; Gualdi, Silvio; Dunstone, Nick; Eade, Rosie; Scaife, Adam; Collier, Mark; O'Kane, Terence; Kitsios, Vassili; Sandery, Paul; Pankatz, Klaus; Früh, Barbara; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang; Kataoka, Takahito; Tatebe, Hiroaki; Ishii, Masayoshi; Imada, Yukiko; Kruschke, Tim; Koenigk, Torben; Karami, Mehdi Pasha; Yang, Shuting; Tian, Tian; Zhang, Liping; Delworth, Tom; Yang, Xiaosong; Zeng, Fanrong; Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois Stephane; Keenlyside, Noel Sebastian; Bethke, Ingo; Lean, Judith; Luterbacher, Jürg; Kolli, Rupa Kumar; Kumar, Arun;Abstract As climate change accelerates, societies and climate-sensitive socioeconomic sectors cannot continue to rely on the past as a guide to possible future climate hazards. Operational decadal predictions offer the potential to inform current adaptation and increase resilience by filling the important gap between seasonal forecasts and climate projections. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has recognized this and in 2017 established the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Predictions (shortened to “Lead Centre” below), which annually provides a large multimodel ensemble of predictions covering the next 5 years. This international collaboration produces a prediction that is more skillful and useful than any single center can achieve. One of the main outputs of the Lead Centre is the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (GADCU), a consensus forecast based on these predictions. This update includes maps showing key variables, discussion on forecast skill, and predictions of climate indices such as the global mean near-surface temperature and Atlantic multidecadal variability. it also estimates the probability of the global mean temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least 1 year in the next 5 years, which helps policy-makers understand how closely the world is approaching this goal of the Paris Agreement. This paper, written by the authors of the GADCU, introduces the GADCU, presents its key outputs, and briefly discusses its role in providing vital climate information for society now and in the future.
Universitat Politècn... arrow_drop_down Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTAArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTAUPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCDigitala Vetenskapliga Arkivet - Academic Archive On-lineArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedBergen Open Research Archive - UiBArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: Bergen Open Research Archive - UiBBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: CrossrefBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: European Union Open Data PortalUniversity of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB)Article . 2022Data sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1175/bams-d-20-0311.1&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.euAccess RoutesGreen bronze 30 citations 30 popularity Top 10% influence Top 10% impulse Top 10% Powered by BIP!
visibility 55visibility views 55 download downloads 7 Powered bymore_vert Universitat Politècn... arrow_drop_down Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTAArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTAUPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: UPCommons. Portal del coneixement obert de la UPCDigitala Vetenskapliga Arkivet - Academic Archive On-lineArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedBergen Open Research Archive - UiBArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: Bergen Open Research Archive - UiBBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: CrossrefBulletin of the American Meteorological SocietyArticle . 2022 . Peer-reviewedData sources: European Union Open Data PortalUniversity of Bergen: Bergen Open Research Archive (BORA-UiB)Article . 2022Data sources: Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE)add ClaimPlease grant OpenAIRE to access and update your ORCID works.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.
You have already added works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.All Research productsarrow_drop_down <script type="text/javascript"> <!-- document.write('<div id="oa_widget"></div>'); document.write('<script type="text/javascript" src="https://beta.openaire.eu/index.php?option=com_openaire&view=widget&format=raw&projectId=10.1175/bams-d-20-0311.1&type=result"></script>'); --> </script>
For further information contact us at helpdesk@openaire.eu