• Energy Research

Assessment of future water resources under climate change is required in the Himalayas, where hydrological cycle is poorly studied and little understood. This study focuses on the upper Dudh Koshi river of Nepal (151km(2), 4200-8848ma.s.l.) at the toe of Mt. Everest, nesting the debris covered Khumbu, and Khangri Nup glaciers (62km(2)). New data gathered during three years of field campaigns (2012-2014) were used to set up a glacio-hydrological model describing stream flows, snow and ice melt, ice cover thickness and glaciers' flow dynamics. The model was validated, and used to assess changes of the hydrological cycle until 2100. Climate projections are used from three Global Climate Models used in the recent IPCC AR5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Flow statistics are estimated for two reference decades 2045-2054, and 2090-2099, and compared against control run CR, 2012-2014. During CR we found a contribution of ice melt to stream flows of 55% yearly, with snow melt contributing for 19%. Future flows are predicted to increase in monsoon season, but to decrease yearly (-4% vs CR on average) at 2045-2054. At the end of century large reduction would occur in all seasons, i.e. -26% vs CR on average at 2090-2099. At half century yearly contribution of ice melt would be on average 45%, and snow melt 28%. At the end of century ice melt would be 31%, and snow contribution 39%. Glaciers in the area are projected to thin largely up to 6500ma.s.l. until 2100, reducing their volume by -50% or more, and their ice covered area by -30% or more. According to our results, in the future water resources in the upper Dudh Koshi would decrease, and depend largely upon snow melt and rainfall, so that adaptation measures to modified water availability will be required.

Climate change effects are noticeably evident above the timberline where glacier and permafrost processes and mass movements drive the surface evolution. In particular, the cryosphere shrinkage is deeply changing the features and characteristics of several glacierized mountain areas of the world, and these modifications can also affect the landscape perception of tourists and mountaineers. On the one hand glacier retreat is increasing the interest of tourists and visitors in areas witnessing clear climate change impacts; on the other hand cryosphere shrinkage can impact the touristic appeal of mountain territories which, diminishing their ice and snow coverage, are also losing part of their aesthetic value. Then, to promote glacierized areas in a changing climate and to prepare exhaustive and actual proposals for sustainable tourism, it is important to deepen our knowledge about landscape perception of tourists and mountaineers and their awareness of the ongoing environmental modifications. Here we present the results from a pilot study we performed in summer 2009 on a representative glacierized area of the Alps, the Forni Valley (Stelvio National Park, Lombardy, Italy), a valley shaped by Forni, the largest Italian valley glacier. During the 2009 summer season we asked tourists visiting the Forni Valley to complete a questionnaire. This study was aimed at both describing the features and characteristics of tourists and mountaineers visiting this Alpine zone in summer and evaluating their landscape perception and their ability to recognize climate change impacts and evidence. Our results suggest that the dissemination strategies in a natural protected area have to take into account not only the main landscape features but also the sites where the information will be given. In particular considering the peculiarities of the huts located in the area, such as their different accessibility and the fact that they are included or not in a mountaineering network like that of the Italian Alpine Club. Both these factors can influence the kind of visitors to the area, thus requiring different dissemination strategies. Moreover, differences in the viewpoints from where visitors could watch and understand landscape also have to be considered. Next, in a protected area where climate change effects are evident, the dissemination strategies should be developed in close cooperation with scientists who are analyzing the area and with the support of periodic interviews which could be very useful to evaluate the effectiveness of the applied dissemination methods. Last but not least, the questionnaire should be standardized and distributed in several protected areas, thus permitting useful comparisons and the identification of common solutions for sharing in a friendly way scientific knowledge about climate change and its effects on the environment and the landscape.

During the 2005–2007 June–September ablation seasons, meteorological conditions were recorded on the lower and upper parts of the debris‐covered ablation zone of Miage Glacier, Italy. In 2005, debris temperature and subdebris ice melt were also monitored at 25 points with debris thickness of 0.04–0.55 m, spread over 5 km2 of the glacier. The radiative fluxes were directly measured, and near‐closure of the surface energy balance is achieved, providing support for the bulk aerodynamic calculation of the turbulent fluxes. Surface‐layer meteorology and energy fluxes are dominated by the pattern of incoming solar radiation which heats the debris, driving strong convection. Mean measured subdebris ice melt rates are 6–33 mm d−1, and mean debris thermal conductivity is 0.96 W m−1 K−1, displaying a weak positive relationship with debris thickness. Mean seasonal values of the net shortwave, net longwave, and debris heat fluxes show little variation between years, despite contrasting meteorological conditions, while the turbulent latent (evaporative) heat flux was more than twice as large in the wet summer of 2007 compared with 2005. The increase in energy output from the debris surface in response to increasing surface temperature means that subdebris ice melt rates are fairly insensitive to atmospheric temperature variations in contrast to debris‐free glaciers. Improved knowledge of spatial patterns of debris thickness distribution and 2 m air temperature, and the controls on evaporation of rainwater from the surface, are needed for distributed physically based melt modeling of debris‐covered glaciers.

AbstractDistributed energy-balance melt models have rarely been applied to glaciers with extensive supraglacial debris cover. This paper describes the development of a distributed melt model and its application to the debris-covered Miage glacier, western Italian Alps, over two summer seasons. Sub-debris melt rates are calculated using an existing debris energy-balance model (DEB-Model), and melt rates for clean ice, snow and partially debris-covered ice are calculated using standard energy-balance equations. Simulated sub-debris melt rates compare well to ablation stake observations. Melt rates are highest, and most sensitive to air temperature, on areas of dirty, crevassed ice on the middle glacier. Here melt rates are highly spatially variable because the debris thickness and surface type varies markedly. Melt rates are lowest, and least sensitive to air temperature, beneath the thickest debris on the lower glacier. Debris delays and attenuates the melt signal compared to clean ice, with peak melt occurring later in the day with increasing debris thickness. The continuously debris-covered zone consistently provides 30% of total melt throughout the ablation season, with the proportion increasing during cold weather. Sensitivity experiments show that an increase in debris thickness of 0.035 m would offset 18C of atmospheric warming.