• Energy Research

Forecasting the electricity price and load has been a critical area of concern for researchers over the last two decades. There has been a significant economic impact on producers and consumers. Various techniques and methods of forecasting have been developed. The motivation of this paper is to present a comprehensive review on electricity market price and load forecasting, while observing the scientific approaches and techniques based on wind energy. As a methodology, this review follows the historical and structural development of electricity markets, price, and load forecasting methods, and recent trends in wind energy generation, transmission, and consumption. As wind power prediction depends on wind speed, precipitation, temperature, etc., this may have some inauspicious effects on the market operations. The improvements of the forecasting methods in this market are necessary and attract market participants as well as decision makers. To this end, this research shows the main variables of developing electricity markets through wind energy. Findings are discussed and compared with each other via quantitative and qualitative analysis. The results reveal that the complexity of forecasting electricity markets’ price and load depends on the increasing number of employed variables as input for better accuracy, and the trend in methodologies varies between the economic and engineering approach. Findings are specifically gathered and summarized based on researches in the conclusions.

Using a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag time-series analysis, this paper investigates the causal relationship between climate change, the tourism sector, and energy consumption in Turkey. The trade-off between a country's economic growth and the environmental degradation caused by tourism and the energy sector is critical in terms of scientifically addressing the issue and developing economic policies. As a result, climate change is used as the dependent variable and is represented by precipitation and temperature separately; the independent variables are tourist arrivals, energy consumption, and economic growth. Data is gathered by various institutions from 1995 to 2020. According to the test results, while positive and negative shocks contribute to the decrease in precipitation and temperature in renewable energy consumption (REC) in the long-run, they affect the increase in precipitation and temperature in non-renewable energy consumption (NREC). In the long-run relationship between tourism and temperature, a decrease in the number of tourist arrivals causes a decrease in temperature and precipitation. The findings reveal that a decrease in the number of tourist arrivals and an increase in REC may aid in decreasing temperature, while the increase in NREC may cause an increase in temperature. Through a case study of Turkey, decision-makers should consider these scientific findings that are in the frame of non-linear analysis as possible scenarios for mitigating climate change and fostering sustainable economic growth with efficient tourism policies for the world.

AbstractThis research work analyzes the relationship between environmental degradation, economic growth, trade openness, primary energy consumption, coal consumption, and hydroelectricity consumption in Turkey from 1971 to 2015 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) time series approach through the hypothesis of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC). Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and ecological footprint are both used as indicators of environmental degradation, which employs six different models. According to the results found in this study, while trade openness increases CO2 emissions, it decreases ecological footprint in the long-run. Coal consumption raises both CO2 emissions and ecological footprint. While hydroelectric energy reduces CO2 emissions, it has no effect on the environment. The results demonstrate that the EKC hypothesis is correct for both CO2 emissions and Turkey’s ecological footprint. The threshold points are investigated as $18,704, $16,361, and $13,571 in models, where CO2 emissions are the dependent variable. In models where the ecological footprint is the dependent variable, the investigated threshold points of $11,824, $11,821, and $15,476 are higher than the gross domestic product (GDP) per capita during the analysis periods. Furthermore, the findings highlight the importance of renewable energy use in reducing environmental degradation and coal use in increasing environmental degradation. These findings can shed light on the importance of transition to renewable energy sources (i.e., hydroelectricity consumption), from fossil fuels (i.e., coal consumption), related to future planning in energy diversification for Turkey.

Food crop production and energy consumption scenarios through environmental factors are a critical concern for humanity. To this end, this study focuses on cereal yield in Turkey influenced by climate change, energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and eco-environmental factors. The objective is finding evidence for an influence level of cereal yield through its determiners, which has not been effectively discussed in literature yet. To fill the gap, a time-series autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) analysis and spectral causality relationships are conducted in the short-run, medium-run, and long-run. Data is collected annually by various institutions, from 1960 to 2019. The ARDL findings reveal that there is a cointegration between the variables and a long-run correlation between cereal yield and eco-environmental variables. While, energy consumption positively affects cereal yield, climate change has varying effects, and CO2 emissions negatively affect it. This study shows that environmental and economic factors in Turkey are critical for cereal yield. The Turkish government should encourage agriculture incentives for productive cereal supply. Increasing renewable energy consumption can be a powerful strategy in Turkey not only for increasing cereal yield but also for the negative influences of climate change. Therefore, the used economic model can serve an example for any countries.

In recent years, it is seen that High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) transmission line systems have come to the fore in the field of energy efficiency in the world. Therefore, it is predicted that analyzing the technological and economic advantages of HVDC transmission line systems will make an important contribution to energy efficiency policies. In this regard, this study aims to examine the technological and economic advantages of HVDC transmission systems through the historical development with applications in Turkey and in the world. In addition to this, it is expected that the evaluation of the effects of energy efficiency on the economy will bring a different perspective to the energy and economic literature. Therefore, it is thought that energy and economic policies for the spread of HVDC transmission line systems worldwide will be essential. The asymmetric distribution of natural energy sources in the world causes energy supply security problems in the countries such as Turkey in terms of high foreign dependence on energy. For this reason, it is necessary to meet the increasing energy demand and increase the existing capacity day by day. Besides, it is important to develop policies for efficient use of energy. HVDC technology is extremely important for a developing country like Turkey. Moreover, it is known that this energy transmission technology has become widespread in developed countries. Thereby, a technical comparison is done for investment costs of the transmission system in Germany. As a result, other than bringing economic benefits with the energy transmission of Turkey through HVDC, it has important potential for making energy transmission possible with her neighbors and European Union countries.