• Energy Research

AbstractDecision makers need accurate information to address climate variability and change and accelerate transformation to sustainability. A stakeholder-driven, science-based multi-model approach has been developed and used by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to generate actionable information for adaptation planning processes. For a range of mid-century climate projections—likely to be hotter, drier, and more variable—contrasting future socio-economic scenarios (Representative Agricultural Pathways, RAPs) were co-developed with stakeholders to portray a sustainable development scenario and a rapid economic growth pathway. The unique characteristic of this application is the integration of a multi-modeling approach with stakeholder engagement to co-develop scenarios and adaptation strategies. Distribution of outcomes were simulated with climate, crop, livestock, and economic impact assessment models for smallholder crop livestock farmers in a typical dryland agro-ecological zone in Zimbabwe, characterized by low and erratic rainfall and nutrient depleted soils. Results showed that in Nkayi District, Western Zimbabwe, climate change would threaten most of the farms, and, in particular, those with large cattle herds due to feed shortages. Adaptation strategies that showed the most promise included diversification using legume production, soil fertility improvement, and investment in conducive market environments. The switch to more legumes in the farming systems reduced the vulnerability of the very poor as well as the more resourced farmers. Overall, the sustainable development scenario consistently addressed institutional failures and motivated productivity-enhancing, environmentally sound technologies and inclusive development approaches. This yielded more favorable outcomes than investment in quick economic wins from commercializing agriculture.

AbstractAchieving Zimbabwe’s national and international commitments to food systems transformation and climate resilience building is of high priority. Integrated simulation-based research approaches developed under the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) are important sources of evidence to guide policy decisions towards sustainable intensification. Through the identification of economically viable, socially inclusive and environmentally sustainable development pathways, the analysis in this study evaluates co-benefits and trade-offs between climate change adaptation and mitigation interventions for vulnerable smallholder crop-livestock holdings in the semi-arid regions of Zimbabwe. We explore how climate effects disrupt the livelihoods and food security for diverse farm types, the extremely vulnerable and those better resource endowed but facing high risks. In an iterative process with experts and stakeholders, we co-developed context specific development pathways. They include market-oriented adaptation and mitigation interventions and social protection mechanisms that would support the transition towards more sustainable intensified, diversified and better integrated crop-livestock systems. We assess the trade-offs associated with adoption of climate-smart interventions aimed at improving incomes and food security but that may have consequences on GHG emissions for the different pathways and farm types. The approach and results inform the discussion on drivers that can bring about sustainable intensification, and the extent to which socio-economic benefits could enhance the uptake of emission reducing technologies thereof. Through this strategy we evaluate interventions that can result in win–win outcomes, that is, adaptation-mitigation co-benefits, and what this would imply for policies that aim at transforming agri-food systems.