• Energy Research

As climate change is expected to significantly affect agricultural systems globally, agricultural farm advisors have been increasingly recognized as an important resource in helping farmers address these challenges. While there have been many studies exploring the climate change belief and risk perceptions as well as behaviors of both farmers and agricultural farm advisors, there are very few studies that have explored how these perceptions relate to actual climate impacts in agriculture. Here we couple survey data from United States Department of Agriculture farm service employees ( n = 6, 514) with historical crop loss data across the United States to explore the relationship of actual climate-related crop losses on farm to farm advisor perceptions of climate change and future farmer needs. Using structural equation modelling we find that among farm advisors that work directly with farms on disaster and crop loss issues, there is a significant positive relationship between crop loss and perceived weather variability changes, while across all farm advisors crop loss is associated with reduced likelihood to believe in anthropogenic climate change. Further, we find that weather variability perceptions are the most consistently and highly correlated with farm advisors’ perceptions about the need for farm adaptation and future farmer needs. These results suggest that seeing crop loss may not lead to climate change belief, but may drive weather variability perceptions, which in turn affect farm adaptation perceptions. This lends further evidence to the debate over terminology in climate change communication and outreach, suggesting that weather variability may be the most salient among agricultural advisors.

AbstractLandscape photovisualizations (PVZs) are digitally altered photographs that show existing landscapes altered to include a simulated future scenario. They are commonly used to support dialogue and decision-making in multistakeholder contexts. In agricultural sectors, stakeholders increasingly must contend with pressures to adapt to climatic changes and shifts in weather patterns. This study examines the potential of PVZs to engage agricultural stakeholders about climate change adaptation, specifically around best management practices (BMPs). In 2015, survey data were collected (n= 133) at six agricultural conferences Vermont. Participants were asked about their climate change knowledge, perceptions of adaptation, and their intentions to adopt or recommend one or more of the following BMPs: riparian buffers, drainage tiles with constructed wetlands, retention ponds, and silvopasture. In addition, respondents were asked about how well PVZs did or did not clarify their understanding of each BMP and its associated limiting factors. Results from five multivariate ordered logit models show an increase in interest among some agricultural stakeholders in adopting a BMP (among farmers) or recommending a BMP (among agricultural advisors) after seeing a PVZ depicting that practice. Interest in adoption or recommendation of BMPs was also more likely among respondents who believe that it is important for farms to adapt to climate change. Although PVZs are not common in agricultural outreach programs, these results suggest that PVZs are relevant to agricultural education and land-use decision-making, specifically in the domain of climate change adaptation.

To remain viable, agricultural producers will need to adapt to changing climatic conditions in coming decades. Agricultural advisers play an important role in helping producers decide to adopt appropriate adaptation practices. Photovisualizations have the potential to complement currently utilized outreach and education strategies. This research uses a focus group approach to explore (1) whether photovisualizations can aid in decision-making about climate change adaptation, and (2) what characteristics of photovisualizations are most effective at conveying spatial aspects of adaptation practices. We found that photovisualizations generate rich discussions about ecological and economic effects as well as tradeoffs associated with climate adaptation practices. To have the greatest impact, photovisualizations should be used when producers are considering implementing high-cost or high-risk projects, when practices are likely to dramatically change the visual landscape, or when a practice is unfamiliar to a producer.

Globally, the changing and interacting effects of temperature and precipitation are anticipated to influence the fitness of specialty crops. Strawberry (Fragaria x ananassa) is an important crop in the Northeastern United States. In this study, four plausible precipitation scenarios were developed to be representative of current and future growing season precipitation patterns. Using a precipitation simulator, we tested these scenarios on potted-day-neutral strawberries. This study generated four primary results. (1) Though some treatments received different amounts of precipitation, little difference was observed in soil volumetric water content or temperature. Treatments designed to simulate future conditions were more likely to have higher nitrate-in-leachate (N-leachate) concentrations than those designed to simulate current conditions. (2) Neither total precipitation nor seasonable distribution were associated with foliar or root disease pressure. (3) While there was a slightly higher chance that photosynthesis would be higher in drier conditions, little difference was observed in the effects on chlorophyll concentration and no water stress was detected in any treatment. (4) Leaf biomass was likely more affected by total rather than seasonal distribution of precipitation, but the interaction between changing rainfall distribution and seasonal totals is likely to be an important driver of root biomass development in the future.

AbstractLittle research has been conducted on how agricultural producers in the northeastern United States conceptualize climate-related risk and how these farmers address risk through on-farm management strategies. Two years following Tropical Storm Irene, our team interviewed 15 farmers in order to investigate their perceptions of climate-related risk and how their decision-making was influenced by these perceptions. Our results show that Vermont farmers are concerned with both ecological and economic risk. Subthemes that emerged included geographic, topographic, and hydrological characteristics of farm sites; stability of land tenure; hydrological erosion; pest and disease pressure; market access; household financial stability; and floods. Farmers in our study believed that these risks are not new but that they are significantly intensified by climate change. Farmer responses were heavily focused on adaptation activities, with discussion of climate change mitigation activities notably absent. Psychological distance construal theory and hyperbolic discounting emerged as well-suited frames to explain why farmers reported adaptation activities but not mitigation strategies. Farmers will probably experience an increasing severity of climate-related impacts in the northeast region; therefore, information about climate-related risks coming from farmers’ personal experience should be integrated with forecasting data to help farmers plan effective adaptation strategies.

AbstractAgricultural service providers often work closely with producers, and are well positioned to include weather and climate change information in the services they provide. By doing so, they can help producers reduce risks due to climate variability and change. A national survey of United States Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency (FSA) field staff (n = 4621) was conducted in 2016. The survey was designed to assess FSA employees’ use of climate and weather-related data and explore their perspectives on climate change, attitudes toward adaptation and concerns regarding climate- and weather-driven risks. Two structural equation models were developed to explore relationships between these factors, and to predict respondents’ willingness to integrate climate and weather data into their professional services in the future. The two models were compared with assess the relative influence of respondents’ current use of weather and climate information. Findings suggest that respondents’ perceptions of weather-related risk in combination with their personal observations of weather variability help predict whether an individual intends to use weather and climate information in the future. Importantly, climate change belief is not a significant predictor of this intention; however, the belief that producers will have to adapt to climate change in order to remain viable is. Surprisingly, whether or not an individual currently uses weather and climate information is not a good predictor of whether they intend to in the future. This suggests that there are opportunities to increase employee exposure and proficiency with weather and climate information to meet the needs of American farmers by helping them to reduce risk.

AbstractClimate change and access to water are interrelated concerns for agriculture and other sectors, even in temperate regions. Governance approaches and regulatory frameworks determine who has access to water, for what purpose, and when. In the northeastern United States, water governance has historically been conducted by states through a combination of statutory guidance and common law. However, it is unclear what effect if current governance approaches will be sufficient for achieving resource conservation and equitable allocation in a changing climate. To provide insight into these issues, we conducted the first review of freshwater governance in the 12 states that comprise the U.S. Northeast. Specifically, we examine their heterogeneous approaches to surface and groundwater use, permitting and reporting, and scarcity provisions. Using agriculture as the sector of focus, we show through narrative review and quantitative analysis that change in the proportion of cropland that is irrigated in each state does not differ based on governance approach. We also suggest that future decades may bring regulatory shifts relevant to agriculture, changes in enforcement, increased competition between agriculture and other users, and greater potential competition between states for water resources. This case study raises the question: how should we prepare for the time when competition for, or degradation of, a resource surpasses the ability of existing governance mechanisms to ensure conservation and equitable distribution?

Abstract Temperate regions, where water supply has not historically been a limiting factor in agriculture or other industries, are expected to face new challenges related to water availability and use. It is important to investigate the gap between farmers’ need for professional support around water management and the services that agricultural advisors can provide. Needs assessments generally consider one of these topics or the other, though we suggest a deeper understanding of the two together is called for. Here, we report on a farmer survey conducted in the state of Maine in the United States (n = 174) and a survey of agricultural advisors conducted in twelve northeastern states (n = 381). By comparing two investigations, we find (a) opportunities for outreach programs both targeted towards the needs of specific agricultural sectors, and (b) professional development topics for agricultural advisors to close the gap between current capacity in the region and farmer needs. Based on these results, we suggest a framework informed by theories of social learning for targeted outreach. We propose that this approach can serve as a model for moving forward with program development in agricultural services into the future, both in the United States and around the world.