• Energy Research

AbstractDirect phenological mismatch caused by climate change can occur in mammals that moult seasonally. Two colour morphs of the weasel Mustela nivalis (M. n.) occur sympatrically in Białowieża Forest (NE Poland) and differ in their winter pelage colour: white in M. n. nivalis and brown in M. n. vulgaris. Due to their small body size, weasels are vulnerable to attacks by a range of different predators; thus cryptic coat colour may increase their winter survival. By analysing trapping data, we found that the share of white subspecies in the weasel population inhabiting Białowieża Forest decreases with decreasing numbers of days with snow cover. This led us to hypothesise that selective predation pressure should favour one of the two phenotypes, according to the prevailing weather conditions in winter. A simple field experiment with weasel models (white and brown), exposed against different background colours, revealed that contrasting models faced significantly higher detection by predators. Our observations also confirmed earlier findings that the plasticity of moult in M. n. nivalis is very limited. This means that climate change will strongly influence the mortality of the nivalis-type due to prolonged camouflage mismatch, which will directly affect the abundance and geographical distribution of this subspecies.

Forest habitats change significantly under the influence of global warming. It is important to predict the effects of these changes, especially in primeval forests which currently represent a small percentage of temperate forests. Such changes often manifest themselves in an acceleration of the frequency of mass seeding of trees, which causes cascading effects in various organisms. We evaluated changes in: tree masts (oak Quercus robur and hornbeam Carpinus betulus), rodent abundance (yellow-necked mouse Apodemus flavicollis), folivorous caterpillar abundance (winter moth Operophtera brumata), and the breeding success of a cavity-nesting songbird (collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis) in over a 30-year period in the Białowieża Forest (E Poland). We also analysed temperature, precipitation and snow cover to determine the effects of weather on each trophic level. Previous studies have exposed the indirect effect of tree masting on songbirds breeding in open nests. Our study uniquely highlights the relationships between trees, rodents, caterpillars, and a cavity-nesting bird. Precipitation was positively correlated with the fructification of trees, abundance of caterpillars, and the breeding losses of flycatchers (in July, August, October in the previous year, in May in the current year, respectively). We found that along with the changing climate, the frequency of mast years of oak increased, which caused an increasing frequency of rodent outbreaks. The abundance of mice was positively correlated with the predation on flycatcher broods (current year) and negatively - with the abundance of caterpillars (following year). We predict that current global trends in climate change will have a negative impact on the flycatcher due to the cascading effects from the above species. Bearing in mind that F. albicollis is one of the most numerous bird species, it can be assumed that more frequent masting will result in substantial changes in the entire bird assemblage, and presumably also other groups of animals.

Many birds species breed in colonies. One of the species in the Corvidae family nesting in groups is the Rook (Corvus frugilegus). The construction of the nest is costly for birds and needs high energy expenditure. Therefore, birds should optimize the time of nest building in relation to environmental, especially weather, conditions. Furthermore, birds should adapt their breeding phenology, including the date of starting the construction of nests for climate change. We observed the dynamics of increasing numbers of nests in a colony of Rooks in relation to air temperature, wind, rainfall, snowfall and day-length (indirect indicator of photoperiodism). Observations were carried out during three breeding seasons (2015–2017) in a large rookery in a big city in north-eastern Poland. The increase in the number of nests was correlated only with day length and no effect of climatic factors on the number of nests in the colony was observed. Number of nests varied significantly between successive years of research. In the case of the Rook (predictable breeders), the photoperiod seems to be the most important factor influencing breeding behavior, especially nest construction. In the last three decades, increasing temperature and time of spring phases have advanced and have influenced changes in the phenology of the availability of food resources. Simultaneously, a rapid decline in the numbers of breeding pairs of the Rook in Poland has been observed, especially in the last three decades. Conservative attachment to the length of the day, which is the main factor responsible for the development of the breeding colony, makes the Rook appear to be a species with low plasticity in the face of rapid climate changes. Thus, we suggest that may indirectly influence the decrease in the breeding population of the Rook.

AbstractGlobal climate change affects many aspects of biology and has been shown to cause body size changes in animals. However, suitable datasets allowing the analysis of long‐term relationships between body size, climate, and its effects are rare. The size of the skull is often used as a proxy for overall body size. Skull size does not change much in fully grown vertebrates; however, some high‐metabolic small mammals shrink in winter and regrow in spring, including their skull and brain. This is thought to be a winter adaptation, as a smaller brain size reduces energy requirements. Climate could thus affect not only the overall size but also the pattern of the size change, that is, Dehnel's phenomenon, in these animals. We assessed the impact of the changes in climate on the overall skull size and the different stages of Dehnel's phenomenon in skulls of the common shrew, Sorex araneus, collected over 50 years in the Białowieża Forest, E Poland. Overall skull size decreased, along with increasing temperatures and decreasing soil moisture, which affected the availability of the shrews' main food source, earthworms. The skulls of males were larger than those of females, but the degree of the decrease in size did not differ between sexes. The magnitude of Dehnel's phenomenon increased over time, indicating an increasing selection pressure on animals in winter. Overall, climate clearly affected the common shrew's overall size as well as its seasonal size changes. With the current acceleration in climate change, the effects on the populations of this cold‐adapted species may be quite severe in a large part of its distribution range.