• Energy Research

AbstractThe mechanistic pathways connecting ocean-atmosphere variability and terrestrial productivity are well-established theoretically, but remain challenging to quantify empirically. Such quantification will greatly improve the assessment and prediction of changes in terrestrial carbon sequestration in response to dynamically induced climatic extremes. The jet stream latitude (JSL) over the North Atlantic-European domain provides a synthetic and robust physical framework that integrates climate variability not accounted for by atmospheric circulation patterns alone. Surface climate impacts of north-south summer JSL displacements are not uniform across Europe, but rather create a northwestern-southeastern dipole in forest productivity and radial-growth anomalies. Summer JSL variability over the eastern North Atlantic-European domain (5-40E) exerts the strongest impact on European beech, inducing anomalies of up to 30% in modelled gross primary productivity and 50% in radial tree growth. The net effects of JSL movements on terrestrial carbon fluxes depend on forest density, carbon stocks, and productivity imbalances across biogeographic regions.

The jet stream is an important dynamic driver of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes1-3. Modern variability in the position of summer jet stream latitude in the North Atlantic-European sector (EU JSL) promotes dipole patterns in air pressure, temperature, precipitation and drought between northwestern and southeastern Europe. EU JSL variability and its impacts on regional climatic extremes and societal events are poorly understood, particularly before anthropogenic warming. Based on three temperature-sensitive European tree-ring records, we develop a reconstruction of interannual summer EU JSL variability over the period 1300-2004 CE (R2 = 38.5%) and compare it to independent historical documented climatic and societal records, such as grape harvest, grain prices, plagues and human mortality. Here we show contrasting summer climate extremes associated with EU JSL variability back to 1300 CE as well as biophysical, economic and human demographic impacts, including wildfires and epidemics. In light of projections for altered jet stream behaviour and intensified climate extremes, our findings underscore the importance of considering EU JSL variability when evaluating amplified future climate risk.

Summary Stable isotopes in tree rings are increasingly used as proxies for climatic and ecophysiological changes. However, uncertainties remain about the strength and consistency of their response to environmental variation at different temporal (i.e. seasonal to inter‐decadal) scales. We developed 5 yr of intra‐seasonal and 62 yr of early‐ and late‐wood δ13C and δ18O series of Smith fir (Abies georgei var. smithii) on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, and used a process‐based forward model to examine the relative importance of environmental and physiological controls on the isotopic data. In this temperate high‐altitude region, the response, both δ18O and δ13C, is primarily to variations in relative humidity, but by different processes. In δ18O, the response is via source water δ18O but also arises from leaf water 18O enrichment. In δ13C, the response is via changes in stomatal conductance but is modified by carry‐over effects from prior periods. We conclude that tree‐ring δ18O may be a more robust climate proxy than δ13C, and δ13C may be more suited to studies of site‐related physiological responses to the local environment.