• Energy Research

AbstractSphagnum mosses are keystone components of peatland ecosystems. They facilitate the accumulation of carbon in peat deposits, but climate change is predicted to expose peatland ecosystem to sustained and unprecedented warming leading to a significant release of carbon to the atmosphere. Sphagnum responses to climate change, and their interaction with other components of the ecosystem, will determine the future trajectory of carbon fluxes in peatlands. We measured the growth and productivity of Sphagnum in an ombrotrophic bog in northern Minnesota, where ten 12.8‐m‐diameter plots were exposed to a range of whole‐ecosystem (air and soil) warming treatments (+0 to +9°C) in ambient or elevated (+500 ppm) CO2. The experiment is unique in its spatial and temporal scale, a focus on response surface analysis encompassing the range of elevated temperature predicted to occur this century, and consideration of an effect of co‐occurring CO2 altering the temperature response surface. In the second year of warming, dry matter increment of Sphagnum increased with modest warming to a maximum at 5°C above ambient and decreased with additional warming. Sphagnum cover declined from close to 100% of the ground area to <50% in the warmest enclosures. After three years of warming, annual Sphagnum productivity declined linearly with increasing temperature (13–29 g C/m2 per °C warming) due to widespread desiccation and loss of Sphagnum. Productivity was less in elevated CO2 enclosures, which we attribute to increased shading by shrubs. Sphagnum desiccation and growth responses were associated with the effects of warming on hydrology. The rapid decline of the Sphagnum community with sustained warming, which appears to be irreversible, can be expected to have many follow‐on consequences to the structure and function of this and similar ecosystems, with significant feedbacks to the global carbon cycle and climate change.

AbstractPredicting vegetation phenology in response to changing environmental factors is key in understanding feedbacks between the biosphere and the climate system. Experimental approaches extending the temperature range beyond historic climate variability provide a unique opportunity to identify model structures that are best suited to predicting phenological changes under future climate scenarios. Here, we model spring and autumn phenological transition dates obtained from digital repeat photography in a boreal Picea‐Sphagnum bog in response to a gradient of whole ecosystem warming manipulations of up to +9°C, using five years of observational data. In spring, seven equally best‐performing models for Larix utilized the accumulation of growing degree days as a common driver for temperature forcing. For Picea, the best two models were sequential models requiring winter chilling before spring forcing temperature is accumulated. In shrub, parallel models with chilling and forcing requirements occurring simultaneously were identified as the best models. Autumn models were substantially improved when a CO2 parameter was included. Overall, the combination of experimental manipulations and multiple years of observations combined with variation in weather provided the framework to rule out a large number of candidate models and to identify best spring and autumn models for each plant functional type.

Characterization of turnover times of fine roots is essential to understanding patterns of carbon allocation in plants and describing forest C cycling. We used the rate of decline in the ratio of 14C to 12C in a mature hardwood forest, enriched by an inadvertent 14C pulse, to investigate fine-root turnover and its relationship with fine-root diameter and soil depth. Biomass and Delta14C values were determined for fine roots collected during three consecutive winters from four sites, by depth, diameter size classes (< 0.5 or 0.5-2 mm), and live-or-dead status. Live-root pools retained significant 14C enrichment over 3 yr, demonstrating a mean turnover time on the order of years. However, elevated Delta14C values in dead-root pools within 18 months of the pulse indicated an additional component of live roots with short turnover times (months). Our results challenge assumptions of a single live fine-root pool with a unimodal and normal age distribution. Live fine roots < 0.5 mm and those near the surface, especially those in the O horizon, had more rapid turnover than 0.5-2 mm roots and deeper roots, respectively.

Significance While peatlands have historically stored massive amounts of soil carbon, warming is expected to enhance decomposition, leading to a positive feedback with climate change. In this study, a unique whole-ecosystem warming experiment was conducted in northern Minnesota to warm peat profiles to 2 m deep while keeping water flow intact. After nearly 2 y, warming enhanced the degradation of soil organic matter and increased greenhouse gas production. Changes in organic matter quality with warming were accompanied by a stimulation of methane production relative to carbon dioxide. Our results revealed increased decomposition to be fueled by the availability of reactive carbon substrates produced by surface vegetation. The elevated rates of methanogenesis are likely to persist and exacerbate climate warming.

AbstractPhotosynthetic acclimation to both warming and elevated CO2 of boreal trees remains a key uncertainty in modelling the response of photosynthesis to future climates. We investigated the impact of increased growth temperature and elevated CO2 on photosynthetic capacity (Vcmax and Jmax) in mature trees of two North American boreal conifers, tamarack and black spruce. We show that Vcmax and Jmax at a standard temperature of 25°C did not change with warming, while Vcmax and Jmax at their thermal optima (Topt) and growth temperature (Tg) increased. Moreover, Vcmax and Jmax at either 25°C, Topt or Tg decreased with elevated CO2. The Jmax/Vcmax ratio decreased with warming when assessed at both Topt and Tg but did not significantly vary at 25°C. The Jmax/Vcmax increased with elevated CO2 at either reference temperature. We found no significant interaction between warming and elevated CO2 on all traits. If this lack of interaction between warming and elevated CO2 on the Vcmax, Jmax and Jmax/Vcmax ratio is a general trend, it would have significant implications for improving photosynthesis representation in vegetation models. However, future research is required to investigate the widespread nature of this response in a larger number of species and biomes.

Summary Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) has the potential to increase vegetation carbon storage if increased net primary production causes increased long‐lived biomass. Model predictions of eCO2 effects on vegetation carbon storage depend on how allocation and turnover processes are represented. We used data from two temperate forest free‐air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments to evaluate representations of allocation and turnover in 11 ecosystem models. Observed eCO2 effects on allocation were dynamic. Allocation schemes based on functional relationships among biomass fractions that vary with resource availability were best able to capture the general features of the observations. Allocation schemes based on constant fractions or resource limitations performed less well, with some models having unintended outcomes. Few models represent turnover processes mechanistically and there was wide variation in predictions of tissue lifespan. Consequently, models did not perform well at predicting eCO2 effects on vegetation carbon storage. Our recommendations to reduce uncertainty include: use of allocation schemes constrained by biomass fractions; careful testing of allocation schemes; and synthesis of allocation and turnover data in terms of model parameters. Data from intensively studied ecosystem manipulation experiments are invaluable for constraining models and we recommend that such experiments should attempt to fully quantify carbon, water and nutrient budgets.

AbstractLarge across‐model spread in simulating land carbon (C) dynamics has been ubiquitously demonstrated in model intercomparison projects (MIPs), and became a major impediment in advancing climate change prediction. Thus, it is imperative to identify underlying sources of the spread. Here, we used a novel matrix approach to analytically pin down the sources of across‐model spread in transient peatland C dynamics in response to a factorial combination of two atmospheric CO2 levels and five temperature levels. We developed a matrix‐based MIP by converting the C cycle module of eight land models (i.e., TEM, CENTURY4, DALEC2, TECO, FBDC, CASA, CLM4.5 and ORCHIDEE) into eight matrix models. While the model average of ecosystem C storage was comparable to the measurement, the simulation differed largely among models, mainly due to inter‐model difference in baseline C residence time. Models generally overestimated net ecosystem production (NEP), with a large spread that was mainly attributed to inter‐model difference in environmental scalar. Based on the sources of spreads identified, we sequentially standardized model parameters to shrink simulated ecosystem C storage and NEP to almost none. Models generally captured the observed negative response of NEP to warming, but differed largely in the magnitude of response, due to differences in baseline C residence time and temperature sensitivity of decomposition. While there was a lack of response of NEP to elevated CO2 (eCO2) concentrations in the measurements, simulated NEP responded positively to eCO2 concentrations in most models, due to the positive responses of simulated net primary production. Our study used one case study in Minnesota peatland to demonstrate that the sources of across‐model spreads in simulating transient C dynamics can be precisely traced to model structures and parameters, regardless of their complexity, given the protocol that all the matrix models were driven by the same gross primary production and environmental variables.