• Energy Research

The UK Government is hosting COP26 in Glasgow between 31st October and 12th November 2021. It plans to make progress in four key areas which summarize as ‘coal, cars, cash and trees’ (Carbon Brief, 2021). The first two of these aims—to get agreement for the rapid phase out of coal, the most polluting of fossil fuels, and to ensure a rapid transition away for cars fuelled by fossil fuels—are very important, but are not directly related to the remit of Global Change Biology. The latter two aims—ensuring that the financial support of $100 billion per year promised in 2010 by wealthy countries to developing countries finally gets delivered and ensuring that climate solutions adopted also co-deliver to nature—are squarely within the remit of Global Change Biology. With respect to the ‘cash’ aim, this flow of finance is essential to allow poorer countries to adapt to, and to mitigate, climate change. We know that a vast proportion of the potential for natural climate solutions is located in the developing world (Griscom et al., 2020), so if we are to realize that global potential, developing countries must have the financial backing to ensure that this happens in an equitable and just way. Not all of this cash will be used for nature-based solutions, of course, but a proportion of it will be, and nature-based solutions would almost certainly not happen at the scale and speed required to help us meet net zero greenhouse gas emissions targets without this cash. With respect to the ‘trees’ aim, the first thing to note is that nature-based solutions are about so much more than just planting trees (Seddon et al., 2021)! ‘Trees’ is just shorthand for nature-based solutions, but the broad variety of nature-based solutions available, beyond just tree planting, must be encouraged at COP26. The recent joint workshop report by IPBES and IPCC (Pörtner et al., 2021) demonstrated that we cannot successfully resolve either of the existential threats of climate change or biodiversity loss unless we tackle them both together. ...

Significance The livestock sector contributes significantly to global warming through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At the same time, livestock is an invaluable source of nutrition and livelihood for millions of poor people. Therefore, climate mitigation policies involving livestock must be designed with extreme care. Here we demonstrate the large mitigation potential inherent in the heterogeneity of livestock production systems. We find that even within existing systems, autonomous transitions from extensive to more productive systems would decrease GHG emissions and improve food availability. Most effective climate policies involving livestock would be those targeting emissions from land-use change. To minimize the economic and social cost, policies should target emissions at their source—on the supply side—rather than on the demand side.

The livestock sector supports about 1.3 billion producers and retailers, and contributes 40–50% of agricultural GDP. We estimated that between 1995 and 2005, the livestock sector was responsible for greenhouse gas emissions of 5.6–7.5 GtCO2e yr–1. Livestock accounts for up to half of the technical mitigation potential of the agriculture, forestry and land-use sectors, through management options that sustainably intensify livestock production, promote carbon sequestration in rangelands and reduce emissions from manures, and through reductions in the demand for livestock products. The economic potential of these management alternatives is less than 10% of what is technically possible because of adoption constraints, costs and numerous trade-offs. The mitigation potential of reductions in livestock product consumption is large, but their economic potential is unknown at present. More research and investment are needed to increase the affordability and adoption of mitigation practices, to moderate consumption of livestock products where appropriate, and to avoid negative impacts on livelihoods, economic activities and the environment

AbstractRangelands are Earth's dominant land cover and are important providers of ecosystem services. Reliance on rangelands is projected to grow, thus understanding the sensitivity of rangelands to future climates is essential. We used a new ecosystem model of moderate complexity that allows, for the first time, to quantify global changes expected in rangelands under future climates. The mean global annual net primary production (NPP) may decline by 10 g C m−2 year−1 in 2050 under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, but herbaceous NPP is projected to increase slightly (i.e., average of 3 g C m−2 year−1). Responses vary substantially from place‐to‐place, with large increases in annual productivity projected in northern regions (e.g., a 21% increase in productivity in the US and Canada) and large declines in western Africa (−46% in sub‐Saharan western Africa) and Australia (−17%). Soil organic carbon is projected to increase in Australia (9%), the Middle East (14%), and central Asia (16%) and decline in many African savannas (e.g., −18% in sub‐Saharan western Africa). Livestock are projected to decline 7.5 to 9.6%, an economic loss of from $9.7 to $12.6 billion. Our results suggest that forage production in Africa is sensitive to changes in climate, which will have substantial impacts on the livelihoods of the more than 180 million people who raise livestock on those rangelands. Our approach and the simulation tool presented here offer considerable potential for forecasting future conditions, highlight regions of concern, and support analyses where costs and benefits of adaptations and policies may be quantified. Otherwise, the technical options and policy and enabling environment that are needed to facilitate widespread adaptation may be very difficult to elucidate.

AbstractA potential strategy for mitigating nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from permanent grasslands is the partial substitution of fertilizer nitrogen (Nfert) with symbiotically fixed nitrogen (Nsymb) from legumes. The input of Nsymb reduces the energy costs of producing fertilizer and provides a supply of nitrogen (N) for plants that is more synchronous to plant demand than occasional fertilizer applications. Legumes have been promoted as a potential N2O mitigation strategy for grasslands, but evidence to support their efficacy is limited, partly due to the difficulty in conducting experiments across the large range of potential combinations of legume proportions and fertilizer N inputs. These experimental constraints can be overcome by biogeochemical models that can vary legume‐fertilizer combinations and subsequently aid the design of targeted experiments. Using two variants each of two biogeochemical models (APSIM and DayCent), we tested the N2O mitigation potential and productivity of full factorial combinations of legume proportions and fertilizer rates for five temperate grassland sites across the globe. Both models showed that replacing fertilizer with legumes reduced N2O emissions without reducing productivity across a broad range of legume‐fertilizer combinations. Although the models were consistent with the relative changes of N2O emissions compared to the baseline scenario (200 kg N ha−1 yr−1; no legumes), they predicted different levels of absolute N2O emissions and thus also of absolute N2O emission reductions; both were greater in DayCent than in APSIM. We recommend confirming these results with experimental studies assessing the effect of clover proportions in the range 30–50% and ≤150 kg N ha−1 yr−1 input as these were identified as best‐bet climate smart agricultural practices.

Among the main greenhouse gases (CO _2 , CH _4 and N _2 O), N _2 O has the highest global warming potential. N _2 O emission is mainly connected to agricultural activities, increasing as nitrogen concentrations increase in the soil with nitrogen fertilizer application. We evaluated N _2 O emissions due to application of increasing doses of ammonium nitrate and urea in two sugarcane fields in the mid-southern region of Brazil: Piracicaba (São Paulo state) and Goianésia (Goiás state). In Piracicaba, N _2 O emissions exponentially increased with increasing N doses and were similar for urea and ammonium nitrate up to a dose of 107.9 kg ha ^−1 of N. From there on, emissions exponentially increased for ammonium nitrate, whereas for urea they stabilized. In Goianésia, N _2 O emissions were lower, although the behavior was similar to that at the Piracicaba site. Ammonium nitrate emissions increased linearly with N dose and urea emissions were adjusted to a quadratic equation with a maximum amount of 113.9 kg N ha ^−1 . This first effort to measure fertilizer induced emissions in Brazilian sugarcane production not only helps to elucidate the behavior of N _2 O emissions promoted by different N sources frequently used in Brazilian sugarcane fields but also can be useful for future Brazilian ethanol carbon footprint studies.