• Energy Research

Vegetated coastal ecosystems, in particular mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses are highly efficient at sequestering and storing carbon, making them valuable assets for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The state of Queensland, in northeastern Australia, contains almost half of the total area of these blue carbon ecosystems in the country, yet there are few detailed regional or state-wide assessments of their total sedimentary organic carbon (SOC) stocks. We compiled existing SOC data and used boosted regression tree models to evaluate the influence of environmental variables in explaining the variability in SOC stocks, and to produce spatially explicit blue carbon estimates. The final models explained 75 % (for mangroves and tidal marshes) and 65 % (for seagrasses) of the variability in SOC stocks. Total SOC stocks in the state of Queensland were estimated at 569 ± 98 Tg C (173 ± 32 Tg C, 232 ± 50 Tg C, and 164 ± 16 Tg C from mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses, respectively). Regional predictions for each of Queensland's eleven Natural Resource Management regions revealed that 60 % of the state's SOC stocks occurred within three regions (Cape York, Torres Strait and Southern Gulf Natural Resource Management regions) due to a combination of high values of SOC stocks and large areas of coastal wetlands. Protected areas in Queensland play an important role in conserving SOC assets in Queensland's coastal wetlands. For example, ~19 Tg C within terrestrial protected areas, ~27 Tg C within marine protected areas and ~ 40 Tg C within areas of matters of State Environmental Significance. Using multi-decadal (1987-2020) mapped distributions of mangroves in Queensland; we found that mangrove area increased by approximately 30,000 ha from 1987 to 2020, which led to temporal fluctuations in mangrove plant and SOC stocks. We estimated that plant stocks decreased from ~45 Tg C in 1987 to ~34.2 Tg C in 2020, while SOC stocks remained relatively constant from ~107.9 Tg C in 1987 to 108.0 Tg C in 2020. Considering the level of current protection, emissions from mangrove deforestation are potentially very low; therefore, representing minor opportunities for mangrove blue carbon projects in the region. Our study provides much needed information on current trends in carbon stocks and their conservation in Queensland's coastal wetlands, while also contributing to guide future management actions, including blue carbon restoration projects.

Worldwide food production is under ever-increasing demand. Meanwhile, climate change is disrupting rainfall and evaporation patterns, making agriculture freshwater supplies more uncertain. IPCC models predict an increased variability in rainfall and temperature over most of the globe under climate change. Yet, the effects of climate variability on water security remain poorly resolved. Here we used satellite images and deep-learning convolutional neural networks to analyse the impacts of annual averages, seasonality, climate anomaly, and temporal autocorrelation (or climate reddening) for rain and temperature on the water levels of >100,000 Australian farm dams across 55 years. We found that the risk of empty farm dams increased with warmer annual temperatures, lower yearly rainfall, stronger seasonality, reduced climate anomalies, and higher temporal autocorrelation. We used this information to develop a predictive model and estimate the likelihood of water limitations in farm dams between 1965 and 2050 using historical data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) at two climate change scenarios. Results showed that the frequency of empty water reserves has increased 2.5-fold since 1965 and will continue to increase across most (91%) of Australia. We estimated a 37% decline in rural areas with year-round water supplies between 1965 (457,076 km2) and 2050 (285,998 km2). Our continental-scale assessment documents complex temporal and spatial impacts of climate change on agricultural water security, with ramifications for society, economy, and the environment.

The biodiversity of marine and coastal habitats is experiencing unprecedented change. While there are well-known drivers of these changes, such as overexploitation, climate change and pollution, there are also relatively unknown emerging issues that are poorly understood or recognized that have potentially positive or negative impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. In this inaugural Marine and Coastal Horizon Scan, we brought together 30 scientists, policymakers and practitioners with transdisciplinary expertise in marine and coastal systems to identify new issues that are likely to have a significant impact on the functioning and conservation of marine and coastal biodiversity over the next 5-10 years. Based on a modified Delphi voting process, the final 15 issues presented were distilled from a list of 75 submitted by participants at the start of the process. These issues are grouped into three categories: ecosystem impacts, for example the impact of wildfires and the effect of poleward migration on equatorial biodiversity; resource exploitation, including an increase in the trade of fish swim bladders and increased exploitation of marine collagens; and new technologies, such as soft robotics and new biodegradable products. Our early identification of these issues and their potential impacts on marine and coastal biodiversity will support scientists, conservationists, resource managers and policymakers to address the challenges facing marine ecosystems.

In marine environments characterised by habitat-forming plants, the relative allocation of resources into vegetative growth and flowering is an important indicator of plant condition and hence ecosystem health. In addition, the production and abundance of seeds can give clues to local resilience. Flowering density, seed bank, biomass and epiphyte levels were recorded for the temperate seagrass Zostera nigricaulis in Port Phillip Bay, south east Australia at 14 sites chosen to represent several regions with different physicochemical conditions. Strong regional differences were found within the large bay. Spathe and seed density were very low in the north of the bay (3 sites), low in the centre of the bay (2 sites) intermediate in the Outer Geelong Arm (2 sites), high in Swan Bay (2 sites) and very high in the Inner Geelong Arm (3 sites). In the south (2 sites) seed density was low and spathe density was high. These regional patterns were largely consistent for the 5 sites sampled over the three year period. Timing of flowering was consistent across sites, occurring from August until December with peak production in October, except during the third year of monitoring when overall densities were lower and peaked in November. Seagrass biomass, epiphyte load, canopy height and stem density showed few consistent spatial and temporal patterns. Variation in spathe and seed density and morphology across Port Phillip Bay reflects varying environmental conditions and suggests that northern sites may be restricted in their ability to recover from disturbance through sexual reproduction. In contrast, sites in the west and south of the bay have greater potential to recover from disturbances due to a larger seed bank and these sites could act as source populations for sites where seed production is low.

Recent studies have reported significant variability in sediment organic carbon (SOC) storage capacity among seagrass species, but the factors driving this variability are poorly understood, limiting our ability to make informed decisions about which seagrass types are optimal for carbon offsetting and why. Here we show that differences in SOC storage capacity among species within the same geomorphic environment can be explained (in part) by below-ground processes in response to nutrient load; specifically, differences in the activity of microbes harboured by morphologically-different seagrass species. We found that increasing nutrient load enhanced the relative contribution of seagrass and algal sources to SOC pools, boosting sediment microbial biomass and extracellular enzyme activity within mixed seagrass meadows composed of Thalassia hemprichii and Enhalus acoroides, and thus possibly weaken the seagrass blue carbon sequestration capacity. The relative contribution of seagrass plant material to sediment bacterial organic carbon (BOC) and the influencing SOC-decomposing enzymes in E. acoroides meadows were half that of T. hemprichii meadows living side-by-side, even though the mixed seagrass meadows received SOC from the same sources. Overall this research suggests that microbial activity can vary significantly among seagrass species, thereby causing fine-scale (within-meadow) variability in SOC sequestration capacity in response to nutrient load.

Nutrient loading is a leading cause of global seagrass decline, triggering shifts from seagrass- to macroalgal-dominance. Within seagrass meadows of Xincun Bay (South China Sea), we found that nutrient loading (due to fish farming) increased sediment microbial biomass and extracellular enzyme activity associated with carbon cycling (polyphenol oxidase, invertase and cellulase), with a corresponding decrease in percent sediment organic carbon (SOC), suggesting that nutrients primed microorganism and stimulated SOC remineralization. Surpisingly, however, the relative contribution of seagrass-derived carbon to bacteria (δ13Cbacteria) increased with nutrient loading, despite popular theory being that microbes switch to consuming macroalgae which are assumed to provide a more labile carbon source. Organic carbon sources of fungi were unaffected by nutrient loading. Overall, this study suggests that nutrient loading changes the relative contribution of seagrass and algal sources to SOC pools, boosting sediment microbial biomass and extracellular enzyme activity, thereby possibly changing seagrass blue carbon.

For millennia, coastal and marine ecosystems have adapted and flourished in the Red Sea’s unique environment. Surrounded by deserts on all sides, the Red Sea is subjected to high dust inputs and receives very little freshwater input, and so harbors a high salinity. Coral reefs, seagrass meadows, and mangroves flourish in this environment and provide socio-economic and environmental benefits to the bordering coastlines and countries. Interestingly, while coral reef ecosystems are currently experiencing rapid decline on a global scale, those in the Red Sea appear to be in relatively better shape. That said, they are certainly not immune to the stressors that cause degradation, such as increasing ocean temperature, acidification and pollution. In many regions, ecosystems are already severely deteriorating and are further threatened by increasing population pressure and large coastal development projects. Degradation of these marine habitats will lead to environmental costs, as well as significant economic losses. Therefore, it will result in a missed opportunity for the bordering countries to develop a sustainable blue economy and integrate innovative nature-based solutions. Recognizing that securing the Red Sea ecosystems’ future must occur in synergy with continued social and economic growth, we developed an action plan for the conservation, restoration, and growth of marine environments of the Red Sea. We then investigated the level of resources for financial and economic investment that may incentivize these activities. This study presents a set of commercially viable financial investment strategies, ecological innovations, and sustainable development opportunities, which can, if implemented strategically, help ensure long-term economic benefits while promoting environmental conservation. We make a case for investing in blue natural capital and propose a strategic development model that relies on maintaining the health of natural ecosystems to safeguard the Red Sea’s sustainable development.