• Energy Research

Abstract Giving policy advice related to climate mitigation requires insights that take both sectoral and technology effects (and their interactions) into account. This paper develops a novel soft-linking method for bridging the gap between sectoral top-down and technology rich bottom-up models. A unique feature of the approach is the explicit modelling of energy service demand in the top-down model, which creates a direct correspondence to the energy service production in the bottom-up model. This correspondence allows us, unlike previous work, to capture the macroeconomic impact of energy system investment flows. The paper illustrates the full-scale application of the method in the Danish IntERACT model, considering the unilateral introduction of coal carbon capture and storage in the Danish concrete sector. The policy leads to a reduction in the Danish concrete production, and in turn, a carbon leakage effect of 88%. Results also underscores the importance of accounting for the macroeconomic impact of energy system investment flows, as this is the source of approximately half of the policy-induced reduction in macroeconomic activity.

Abstract Giving policy advice related to climate mitigation requires insights that take both sectoral and technology effects (and their interactions) into account. This paper develops a novel soft-linking method for bridging the gap between sectoral top-down and technology rich bottom-up models. A unique feature of the approach is the explicit modelling of energy service demand in the top-down model, which creates a direct correspondence to the energy service production in the bottom-up model. This correspondence allows us, unlike previous work, to capture the macroeconomic impact of energy system investment flows. The paper illustrates the full-scale application of the method in the Danish IntERACT model, considering the unilateral introduction of coal carbon capture and storage in the Danish concrete sector. The policy leads to a reduction in the Danish concrete production, and in turn, a carbon leakage effect of 88%. Results also underscores the importance of accounting for the macroeconomic impact of energy system investment flows, as this is the source of approximately half of the policy-induced reduction in macroeconomic activity.

Abstract Data centres (DCs) are expected to satisfy the rising demand for internet services. Denmark alone is expected to host several large-scale DCs, whose demand for electricity in 2040 may reach 33% of 2017 national electricity consumption. Understanding the operation and interactions of DCs with energy systems is key to understanding their impacts on installed capacities, costs and emissions. The present paper makes three contributions in this regard. First, we introduce a thermodynamic model that relates the power consumption of DCs to their production of excess heat (EH). Second, the results are scaled up to represent DCs in a national energy-system model for the analysis of different scenarios. Third, scenarios are generated and analysed to quantify the impact of DCs on the Danish energy system until 2050. The results show that DCs might have significant impacts on Denmark’s power and district heating (DH) sectors. First, the power demand from DCs translates into an additional 3–6 GW of offshore wind capacity. Second, EH from DCs is beneficial to the whole energy system, the entire quantity of EH being utilized in four out of five scenarios. EH recovery from DCs is economically beneficial, providing from 4% to 27% of Denmark’s DH after 2040.

Abstract Data centres (DCs) are expected to satisfy the rising demand for internet services. Denmark alone is expected to host several large-scale DCs, whose demand for electricity in 2040 may reach 33% of 2017 national electricity consumption. Understanding the operation and interactions of DCs with energy systems is key to understanding their impacts on installed capacities, costs and emissions. The present paper makes three contributions in this regard. First, we introduce a thermodynamic model that relates the power consumption of DCs to their production of excess heat (EH). Second, the results are scaled up to represent DCs in a national energy-system model for the analysis of different scenarios. Third, scenarios are generated and analysed to quantify the impact of DCs on the Danish energy system until 2050. The results show that DCs might have significant impacts on Denmark’s power and district heating (DH) sectors. First, the power demand from DCs translates into an additional 3–6 GW of offshore wind capacity. Second, EH from DCs is beneficial to the whole energy system, the entire quantity of EH being utilized in four out of five scenarios. EH recovery from DCs is economically beneficial, providing from 4% to 27% of Denmark’s DH after 2040.

Abstract The Copenhagen Accord established political consensus on the 2 °C limit (in global temperature increase) and for deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels to achieve this goal. The European Union has set ambitious GHG targets for the year 2050 (80–95% below 1990 levels), with each Member State developing strategies to contribute to these targets. This paper focuses on mitigation targets for one Member State, Ireland, an interesting case study due to the growth in GHG emissions (24% increase between 1990 and 2005) and the high share of emissions from agriculture (30% of total GHG emissions). We use the Irish TIMES energy systems modelling tool to build a number of scenarios delivering an 80% emissions reduction target by 2050, including accounting for the limited options for agriculture GHG abatement by increasing the emissions reduction target for the energy system. We then compare the scenario results in terms of changes in energy technology, the role of energy efficiency and renewable energy. We also quantify the economic impacts of the mitigation scenarios in terms of marginal CO 2 abatement costs and energy system costs. The paper also sheds light on the impacts of short term targets and policies on long term mitigation pathways.

Abstract The Copenhagen Accord established political consensus on the 2 °C limit (in global temperature increase) and for deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels to achieve this goal. The European Union has set ambitious GHG targets for the year 2050 (80–95% below 1990 levels), with each Member State developing strategies to contribute to these targets. This paper focuses on mitigation targets for one Member State, Ireland, an interesting case study due to the growth in GHG emissions (24% increase between 1990 and 2005) and the high share of emissions from agriculture (30% of total GHG emissions). We use the Irish TIMES energy systems modelling tool to build a number of scenarios delivering an 80% emissions reduction target by 2050, including accounting for the limited options for agriculture GHG abatement by increasing the emissions reduction target for the energy system. We then compare the scenario results in terms of changes in energy technology, the role of energy efficiency and renewable energy. We also quantify the economic impacts of the mitigation scenarios in terms of marginal CO 2 abatement costs and energy system costs. The paper also sheds light on the impacts of short term targets and policies on long term mitigation pathways.

The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party’s then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80–95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5°C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than €8,100/tCO2 by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5°C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5–10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in. Key policy insightsEconomic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system.The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors.Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization.Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3–5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80–95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of ‘well below’ 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C.Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO2 emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy. Economic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system. The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors. Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization. Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3–5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80–95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of ‘well below’ 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C. Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO2 emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy.

The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party’s then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80–95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5°C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than €8,100/tCO2 by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5°C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5–10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in. Key policy insightsEconomic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system.The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors.Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization.Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3–5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80–95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of ‘well below’ 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C.Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO2 emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy. Economic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system. The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors. Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization. Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3–5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80–95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of ‘well below’ 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C. Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO2 emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy.