• Energy Research

Python code and data for the Residential Building Stock Model (RBSM) described in the paper "Pathways toward a carbon-neutral Swiss residential building stock", authored by Marta Roca-Puigròs, Romain Guillaume Billy, Andreas Gerber, Patrick Wäger and Daniel Beat Müller and published in the journal "Buildings and Cities" (https://www.buildingsandcities.org/). Model based on ODYM (https://github.com/IndEcol/ODYM). Code and data also available on https://gitlab.com/mfa_indecol/residential-building-stock-model This work was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) within the framework of the National Research Programme "Sustainable Economy: resource-friendly, future-oriented, innovative" (NRP 73) Grant-N° 407340_172402/1.

This repository contains the code (python), data (csv files in the data folder) and results (csv files in the results folder) used for the version of the paper that was submitted to Resources Conservation & Recycling. This dynamic Material Flow Analysis model is used to quantify future scenarios for the global automotive aluminium cycle up to 2050. It allows the user to quantify how current trends (transition to Electric Vehicles, preference for larger cars such as SUVs, increasing population and car ownership) influence the demand for aluminium in passenger cars, as well as the consequences this has for recycling and the carbon footprint of aluminium in cars. The model and data structure is based on the ODYM model. An interactive visualisation of the results of the model is also available at the following URL: http://129.241.153.168:8050/ It allows the user to visualize the 8748 scenarios developed in the model through an interactive Sankey diagram of the automotive aluminium cycle and additional graphs to quantify the impact of the different scenario parameters on the aluminium demand, scrap surplus, and GHG emissions. The latest version of the code is available on GitHub:

Current policies to reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions associated with buildings focus on technological developments such as energy efficiency, renovation rates and renewable energies. While technological developments are effective at mitigating climate change, the omission of lifestyle changes such as lower floor area per capita and indoor temperatures as well as disruptive measures ('e.g.' replacement of highly energy-consuming buildings) leave untapped potential for further savings. A dynamic stock-driven model is presented that quantifies direct energy consumption and direct CO2 emissions associated with the use phase of Swiss residential buildings. Eleven scenarios involving technological developments, lifestyle changes and disruptive measures are evaluated against relevant goals (Paris Agreement, Energy Strategy 2050 and 2000-Watt Society). Disruptive measures are modelled with a new combined lifetime-leaching approach. The scenario analysis indicates that the main leverage points for energy savings reside in lifestyle changes, whereas emission reductions can be highly levered by technological developments. Reaching all the goals is possible, but requires ambitious strategies. This study provides a basis for expanding the portfolio of climate change mitigation strategies for the residential building sector, although further research is needed to understand social, cultural and economic aspects, and indirect (embodied) emissions. Policy relevance Switzerland currently applies two policies in the building sector to reach the climate goals (Energy Strategy 2050, Paris Agreement and 2000-Watt Society). This study shows: (1) current policies (a CO2 levy on fossil fuels for heating and the Buildings Program subsidising renewable energies and energy-efficient renovations) are effective at lowering energy consumption and CO2 emissions, but insufficient to meet any of the goals; (2) reaching the Energy Strategy 2050 and Paris Agreement requires an extension of current policies and a complete phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050; and (3) achieving the 2000-Watt Society requires the measures described above, households heating only areas inside dwellings up to 20°C, and one of these three measures: (a) households living with 41 instead of 47 m2/cap, (b) increasing the renovation rate from 1.3% to 3.0%, and (c) replacing buildings consuming > 140 kWh/m2/yr. Further evaluations including social, cultural and economic aspects, and indirect energy consumption and embodied emissions are needed.

Recent high-level agreements such as the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals aim at mitigating climate change, ecological degradation and biodiversity loss while pursuing social goals such as reducing hunger or poverty. Systemic approaches bridging natural and social sciences are required to support these agendas. The surging human use of biophysical resources (materials, energy) results from the pursuit of social and economic goals, while driving global environmental change. Sociometabolic research links the study of socioeconomic processes with biophysical processes and thus plays a pivotal role in understanding society–nature interactions. It includes a broad range of systems science approaches for measuring, analysing and modelling of biophysical stocks and flows as well as the services they provide to society. Here we outline and systematize major sociometabolic research traditions that study the biophysical basis of economic activity: urban metabolism, the multiscale integrated assessment of societal and ecosystem metabolism, biophysical economics, material and energy flow analysis, and environmentally extended input–output analysis. Examples from recent research demonstrate strengths and weaknesses of sociometabolic research. We discuss future research directions that could also help to enrich related fields. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and other high-level agreements acknowledge the linked nature of social and biophysical systems. This Review explains one research tradition, sociometabolic research, that explores these links. Sociometabolic research uses methods from systems science and allied areas to study the biophysical basis of economic activity. The authors use tangible examples from recent research to demonstrate strengths and weaknesses and then explore future directions.

AbstractIn recent years, increasing attention has been given to the potential supply risks of critical battery materials, such as cobalt, for electric mobility transitions. While battery technology and recycling advancement are two widely acknowledged strategies for addressing such supply risks, the extent to which they will relieve global and regional cobalt demand–supply imbalance remains poorly understood. Here, we address this gap by simulating historical (1998-2019) and future (2020-2050) global cobalt cycles covering both traditional and emerging end uses with regional resolution (China, the U.S., Japan, the EU, and the rest of the world). We show that cobalt-free batteries and recycling progress can indeed significantly alleviate long-term cobalt supply risks. However, the cobalt supply shortage appears inevitable in the short- to medium-term (during 2028-2033), even under the most technologically optimistic scenario. Our results reveal varying cobalt supply security levels by region and indicate the urgency of boosting primary cobalt supply to ensure global e-mobility ambitions.