• Energy Research

Climate warming is supposed to enlarge the area climatically suitable to the naturalization of alien garden plants in temperate regions. However, the effects of a changing climate on the spread of naturalized ornamentals have not been evaluated by spatially and temporarily explicit range modelling at larger scales so far. Here, we assess how climate change and the frequency of cultivation interactively determine the spread of 15 ornamental plants over the 21st century in Europe. We coupled species distribution modelling with simulations of demography and dispersal to predict range dynamics of these species in annual steps across a 250 × 250 m raster of the study area. Models were run under four scenarios of climate warming and six levels of cultivation intensity. Cultivation frequency was implemented as size of the area used for planting a species. Although the area climatically suitable to the 15 species increases, on average, the area predicted to be occupied by them in 2090 shrinks under two of the three climate change scenarios. This contradiction obviously arises from dispersal limitations that were pronounced although we assumed that cultivation is spatially adapting to the changing climate. Cultivation frequency had a much stronger effect on species spread than climate change, and this effect was non‐linear. The area occupied increased sharply from low to moderate levels of cultivation intensity, but levelled off afterwards. Our simulations suggest that climate warming will not necessarily foster the spread of alien garden plants in Europe over the next decades. However, climatically suitable areas do increase and hence an invasion debt is likely accumulating. Restricting cultivation of species can be effective in preventing species spread, irrespective of how the climate develops. However, for being successful, they depend on high levels of compliance to keep propagule pressure at a low level.

Italy is among the European countries with the greatest plant diversity due to both a great environmental heterogeneity and a long history of man-environment interactions. Trait-based approaches to ecological studies have developed greatly over recent decades worldwide, although several issues concerning the relationships between plant functional traits and the environment still lack sufficient empirical evaluation. In order to draw insights on the association between plant functional traits and direct and indirect human and natural pressures on the environmental drivers, here we summarize the existing knowledge on this topic by reviewing the results of studies performed in Italy adopting a functional trait approach on vascular plants, briophytes and lichens. Although we recorded trait measurements for 1418 taxa, our review highlighted some major gaps in plant traits knowledge: Mediterranean ecosystems are poorly represented; traits related to belowground organs are still overlooked; traits measurements for bryophytes and lichens are lacking. Finally, intraspecific variation has been little studied at community level so far. We conclude highlighting the need of approaches evaluating trait-environment relationship at large spatial and temporal scales and the need of a more effective contribution to online databases to tie more firmly Italian researchers to international scientific networks on plant traits.

AbstractAcross the globe, invasive alien species cause severe environmental changes, altering species composition and ecosystem functions. So far, mountain areas have mostly been spared from large‐scale invasions. However, climate change, land‐use abandonment, the development of tourism and the increasing ornamental trade will weaken the barriers to invasions in these systems. Understanding how alien species will react and how native communities will influence their success is thus of prime importance in a management perspective. Here, we used a spatially and temporally explicit simulation model to forecast invasion risks in a protected mountain area in the French Alps under future conditions. We combined scenarios of climate change, land‐use abandonment and tourism‐linked increases in propagule pressure to test if the spread of alien species in the region will increase in the future. We modelled already naturalized alien species and new ornamental plants, accounting for interactions among global change components, and also competition with the native vegetation. Our results show that propagule pressure and climate change will interact to increase overall species richness of both naturalized aliens and new ornamentals, as well as their upper elevational limits and regional range‐sizes. Under climate change, woody aliens are predicted to more than double in range‐size and herbaceous species to occupy up to 20% of the park area. In contrast, land‐use abandonment will open new invasion opportunities for woody aliens, but decrease invasion probability for naturalized and ornamental alien herbs as a consequence of colonization by native trees. This emphasizes the importance of interactions with the native vegetation either for facilitating or potentially for curbing invasions. Overall, our work highlights an additional and previously underestimated threat for the fragile mountain flora of the Alps already facing climate changes, land‐use transformations and overexploitation by tourism.