• Energy Research
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Abstract India and China are the world’s most populous nations, but they have experienced a very different pattern of economic development. As a result, India currently contributes less than one-quarter of the amount of China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, India’s forecasted economic growth suggests that those emissions will almost quadruple, with much of this rise coming from the industry sector. Whole-economy scenarios for limiting global warming suggest that direct CO2 emissions should decrease significantly, but leave unanswered the question of how this can be achieved by real-world policies. This study describes a bottom-up model that can be used to assess the impacts of emissions mitigation policies and the linkages between the physical drivers and energy growth of India’s key industries. It focuses on capturing the main physical drivers of this growth, to identify and prioritize the subsectors to address and develop sustainable, low carbon pathways to support economic growth. This analysis shows that India can achieve its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) while achieving substantial economic growth using its currently planned policies. The study describes in detail the methodology and underlying assumptions that are needed by policy makers to inform targeted policy interventions and provide a baseline scenario in the case of no major new technology breakthroughs and no new adopted policies.

The greenhouse gas mitigation potential of different economic sectors in three world regions are estimated using a bottom-up approach. These estimates provide updates of the numbers reported in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). This study is part of a larger project aimed at comparing greenhouse gas mitigation potentials from bottom-up and top-down approaches. The sectors included in the analysis are energy supply, transport, industry and the residential and service sector. The mitigation potentials range from 11 to 15 GtCO2eq. This is 26–38% of the baseline in 2030 and 47–68% relative to the year 2000. Potential savings are estimated for different cost levels. The total potential at negative costs is estimated at 5–8% relative to the baseline, with the largest share in the residential and service sector and the highest reduction percentage for the transport and industry sectors. These (negative) costs include investment, operation and maintenance and fuel costs and revenues at moderate discount rates of 3–10%. At costs below 100 US$/tCO2, the largest potential reductions in absolute terms are estimated in the energy supply sector, while the transport sector has the lowest reduction potential.

Abstract Demand-side management initiatives such as voluntary demand response provide significant energy savings in the residential sector, which is a major peak demand contributor. The potential of such savings remains unexplored in Ghanaian households due to insufficient electricity consumption data, lack of end-user behavior information and knowledge about the cost-effectiveness of such programs. This research combines 80 household survey information and energy use monitoring data of household appliances, to assess the residential demand response potential of Ghana. A bottom-up approach based on modified end-use model is used to develop aggregate hourly load curve. The estimated electricity consumption is categorized based on their degree of control to determine peak demand reduction potential for the period 2018-2050. The average daily peak load reduction ranged between 65-406 MW representing 2-14% for the considered scenarios by 2050. The results show appreciable economic viability for investment in demand response with net present value varying between 28-645 million US$. We find that price, energy security and environment signals influence end-users’ electricity use behavior. Authors observe that for energy and cost savings to be realized, utility providers and consumers need effective cooperation on information delivery and feedbacks, and consumers should be incentivized to balance the benefits.

Abstract While energy efficiency can contribute significantly towards improving access to modern energy services, energy sector investments in many developing countries have largely focused on increasing energy access by increasing supply. This is because the links between energy efficiency and energy access, is often overlooked. This oversight of energy efficiency is frequently a missed opportunity, as efficiency is often a very cost-effective energy resource. In combination with grid expansion and new clean energy generation, efficiency efforts can help to ensure that reliable power is provided to the maximum number of customers at a lower cost than would be required to increase generation alone. In this paper we describe an analysis method for determining a country's energy efficiency priorities and devising an action plan to integrate energy efficiency as a resource for meeting a nation's energy access goals. We illustrate this method with a detailed case study of Uganda. If the most efficient technologies on the market were adopted in Uganda, 442 MW of generation-level demand could be offset and energy access for an additional 6 M rural customers could be achieved by 2030. Of this technical potential for efficiency, 91% is cost-effective, and 47% is economically achievable under conservative assumptions.

A mid-century net zero target creates a challenge for reducing the emissions of emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors with high cost mitigation options. These sectors include aluminium, cement, chemicals, iron and steel, lime, pulp and paper and petroleum refining. Available studies agree that decarbonization of these sectors is possible by mid-century if more ambitious policies are implemented soon. Existing carbon pricing policies have had limited impact on the emissions of these sectors because their marginal abatement costs almost always exceed the tax rate or allowance price. But emissions trading systems with free allowance allocations to emissions-intensive, trade-exposed sectors have minimized the adverse economic impacts and associated leakage. Internationally coordinated policies are unlikely, so implementing more ambitious policies creates a risk of leakage. This paper presents policy packages a country can implement to accelerate emission reduction by these sectors with minimal risk of leakage. To comply with international trade law the policy packages differ for producers whose goods compete with imports in the domestic market and producers whose goods are exported. Carbon pricing is a critical component of each package due its ability to minimize the risk of adverse economic impacts on domestic industry, support innovation and generate revenue. The revenue can be used to assist groups adversely impacted by the domestic price and production changes due to carbon pricing and to build public support for the policies. Key policy insights:A country with a mid-century net zero GHG emission target likely will need to implement more ambitious mitigation policies soon for emission-intensive sectors such as aluminium, cement, chemicals, iron and steel, lime, pulp and paper and petroleum refining.More ambitious mitigation policies are likely to vary by country and be implemented at different times, creating a risk of leakage due to industrial production shifts to other jurisdictions.More ambitious mitigation policy packages, compatible with international trade law, that a country can implement to reduce emissions from these sectors with minimal risk of leakage are available but differ for producers whose goods compete with imports in the domestic market and those whose goods are exported.Carbon pricing is a critical component of each package due its ability to minimize the risk of adverse economic impacts on domestic producers, support innovation and generate revenue. A country with a mid-century net zero GHG emission target likely will need to implement more ambitious mitigation policies soon for emission-intensive sectors such as aluminium, cement, chemicals, iron and steel, lime, pulp and paper and petroleum refining. More ambitious mitigation policies are likely to vary by country and be implemented at different times, creating a risk of leakage due to industrial production shifts to other jurisdictions. More ambitious mitigation policy packages, compatible with international trade law, that a country can implement to reduce emissions from these sectors with minimal risk of leakage are available but differ for producers whose goods compete with imports in the domestic market and those whose goods are exported. Carbon pricing is a critical component of each package due its ability to minimize the risk of adverse economic impacts on domestic producers, support innovation and generate revenue.

Numerous countries use public funds to subsidize residential electricity for a variety of socioeconomic objectives. These subsidies lower the value of energy efficiency to the consumer while raising it for the government. Further, while it would be especially helpful to have stringent Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) for end uses in this environment, they are hard to strengthen without imposing a cost on ratepayers. In this second-best world, where the presence of subsidies limits the government’s ability to strengthen standards, we find that efficiency-induced savings in subsidy payments can be a significant source of financing for energy efficiency incentive programs. Here, we introduce the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Energy Efficiency Revenue Analysis (LEERA) model to estimate the greatest appliance efficiency improvements that can be achieved in Mexico by the revenue neutral financing of incentive programs from savings in subsidy payments yielded by the same efficiency improvements. We analyze Mexico’s tariff structures and the long-run marginal cost of supply to calculate the marginal savings for the government from appliance efficiency. We find that these avoided subsidy payments alone can provide enough revenue to cover the full incremental manufacturing cost of refrigerators that are 29 % more efficient and televisions that are 36 % more efficient than baseline models. For room air conditioners (ACs), the same source of financing can contribute up to one third of the incremental manufacturing cost of a model that is 10 % more efficient than baseline. We analyze the sensitivity of our results to the most important parameters and find our main conclusion that efficiency-induced avoided subsidy payments will contribute significantly to financing efficiency incentive programs in Mexico to be significant and robust.

Abstract The residential sector in Ghana accounts for about 40% of aggregate electricity consumption out of which urban centers contribute 70%. The high weighted share of residential electricity use is attributed to high appliance ownership and use, and other household/building factors. The ability to determine how changes in the pattern of these factors influence electricity demand is critical if efforts to reduce consumption are to be effective. This study combines a residential electricity consumption survey (RECS) with electricity end-use monitoring of 60 households in Tema city Ghana, to yield the first ever comprehensive investigation of city-scale electricity consumption in urban Ghanaian homes. A multiple linear regression analysis is used to identify the most statistically significant indicators of appliance ownership and household electricity consumption. Results indicate that ownership of air conditioner, freezer, fan, refrigerator and television; and changes in socio-economic and building factors such as energy efficiency awareness and practice; income; household size and floor space show high statistical significance, and collectively explain 57% variance in households’ total electricity consumption. The presence of dependent children increases ownership of television, iron, washing machine and small kitchen appliances. This work provides a solid foundation for developing more tailored energy-saving policy interventions targeted at households.