• Energy Research

AbstractThe degree to which ecosystems are regulated through bottom‐up, top‐down, or direct physical processes represents a long‐standing issue in ecology, with important consequences for resource management and conservation. In marine ecosystems, the role of bottom‐up and top‐down forcing has been shown to vary over spatio‐temporal scales, often linked to highly variable and heterogeneously distributed environmental conditions. Ecosystem dynamics in the Northeast Pacific have been suggested to be predominately bottom‐up regulated. However, it remains unknown to what extent top‐down regulation occurs, or whether the relative importance of bottom‐up and top‐down forcing may shift in response to climate change. In this study, we investigate the effects and relative importance of bottom‐up, top‐down, and physical forcing during changing climate conditions on ecosystem regulation in the Southern California Current System (SCCS) using a generalized food web model. This statistical approach is based on nonlinear threshold models and a long‐term data set (~60 years) covering multiple trophic levels from phytoplankton to predatory fish. We found bottom‐up control to be the primary mode of ecosystem regulation. However, our results also demonstrate an alternative mode of regulation represented by interacting bottom‐up and top‐down forcing, analogous to wasp‐waist dynamics, but occurring across multiple trophic levels and only during periods of reduced bottom‐up forcing (i.e., weak upwelling, low nutrient concentrations, and primary production). The shifts in ecosystem regulation are caused by changes in ocean‐atmosphere forcing and triggered by highly variable climate conditions associated with El Niño. Furthermore, we show that biota respond differently to major El Niño events during positive or negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as highlight potential concerns for marine and fisheries management by demonstrating increased sensitivity of pelagic fish to exploitation during El Niño.

AbstractThe degree to which ecosystems are regulated through bottom‐up, top‐down, or direct physical processes represents a long‐standing issue in ecology, with important consequences for resource management and conservation. In marine ecosystems, the role of bottom‐up and top‐down forcing has been shown to vary over spatio‐temporal scales, often linked to highly variable and heterogeneously distributed environmental conditions. Ecosystem dynamics in the Northeast Pacific have been suggested to be predominately bottom‐up regulated. However, it remains unknown to what extent top‐down regulation occurs, or whether the relative importance of bottom‐up and top‐down forcing may shift in response to climate change. In this study, we investigate the effects and relative importance of bottom‐up, top‐down, and physical forcing during changing climate conditions on ecosystem regulation in the Southern California Current System (SCCS) using a generalized food web model. This statistical approach is based on nonlinear threshold models and a long‐term data set (~60 years) covering multiple trophic levels from phytoplankton to predatory fish. We found bottom‐up control to be the primary mode of ecosystem regulation. However, our results also demonstrate an alternative mode of regulation represented by interacting bottom‐up and top‐down forcing, analogous to wasp‐waist dynamics, but occurring across multiple trophic levels and only during periods of reduced bottom‐up forcing (i.e., weak upwelling, low nutrient concentrations, and primary production). The shifts in ecosystem regulation are caused by changes in ocean‐atmosphere forcing and triggered by highly variable climate conditions associated with El Niño. Furthermore, we show that biota respond differently to major El Niño events during positive or negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), as well as highlight potential concerns for marine and fisheries management by demonstrating increased sensitivity of pelagic fish to exploitation during El Niño.

AbstractBlue whales need to time their migration from their breeding grounds to their feeding grounds to avoid missing peak prey abundances, but the cues they use for this are unknown. We examine migration timing (inferred from the local onset and cessation of blue whale calls recorded on seafloor-mounted hydrophones), environmental conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature anomalies and chlorophyll a), and prey (spring krill biomass from annual net tow surveys) during a 10 year period (2008–2017) in waters of the Southern California Region where blue whales feed in the summer. Colder sea surface temperature anomalies the previous season were correlated with greater krill biomass the following year, and earlier arrival by blue whales. Our results demonstrate a plastic response of blue whales to interannual variability and the importance of krill as a driving force behind migration timing. A decadal-scale increase in temperature due to climate change has led to blue whales extending their overall time in Southern California. By the end of our 10-year study, whales were arriving at the feeding grounds more than one month earlier, while their departure date did not change. Conservation strategies will need to account for increased anthropogenic threats resulting from longer times at the feeding grounds.

AbstractBlue whales need to time their migration from their breeding grounds to their feeding grounds to avoid missing peak prey abundances, but the cues they use for this are unknown. We examine migration timing (inferred from the local onset and cessation of blue whale calls recorded on seafloor-mounted hydrophones), environmental conditions (e.g., sea surface temperature anomalies and chlorophyll a), and prey (spring krill biomass from annual net tow surveys) during a 10 year period (2008–2017) in waters of the Southern California Region where blue whales feed in the summer. Colder sea surface temperature anomalies the previous season were correlated with greater krill biomass the following year, and earlier arrival by blue whales. Our results demonstrate a plastic response of blue whales to interannual variability and the importance of krill as a driving force behind migration timing. A decadal-scale increase in temperature due to climate change has led to blue whales extending their overall time in Southern California. By the end of our 10-year study, whales were arriving at the feeding grounds more than one month earlier, while their departure date did not change. Conservation strategies will need to account for increased anthropogenic threats resulting from longer times at the feeding grounds.

abstract The marine coastal region makes up just 10% of the total area of the global ocean but contributes nearly 20% of its total primary production and over 80% of fisheries landings. Unicellular phytoplankton dominate primary production. Climate variability has had impacts on various marine ecosystems, but most sites are just approaching the age at which ecological responses to longer term, unidirectional climate trends might be distinguished. All five marine pelagic sites in the US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network are experiencing warming trends in surface air temperature. The marine physical system is responding at all sites with increasing mixed layer temperatures and decreasing depth and with declining sea ice cover at the two polar sites. Their ecological responses are more varied. Some sites show multiple population or ecosystem changes, whereas, at others, changes have not been detected, either because more time is needed or because they are not being measured.

abstract The marine coastal region makes up just 10% of the total area of the global ocean but contributes nearly 20% of its total primary production and over 80% of fisheries landings. Unicellular phytoplankton dominate primary production. Climate variability has had impacts on various marine ecosystems, but most sites are just approaching the age at which ecological responses to longer term, unidirectional climate trends might be distinguished. All five marine pelagic sites in the US Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) network are experiencing warming trends in surface air temperature. The marine physical system is responding at all sites with increasing mixed layer temperatures and decreasing depth and with declining sea ice cover at the two polar sites. Their ecological responses are more varied. Some sites show multiple population or ecosystem changes, whereas, at others, changes have not been detected, either because more time is needed or because they are not being measured.

We analyzed variations in naturally occurring δ15N in four species of zooplankton as an index of climate influences on pelagic food web structure in a major eastern boundary current ecosystem. Our analyses focused on two species of particle-grazing copepods (Calanus pacificus and Eucalanus californicus) and two species of carnivorous chaetognaths (Sagitta bierii and Sagitta euneritica), drawing on the CalCOFI zooplankton time series from both the southern and central sectors of the California Current System. We detected a significant difference between regions in average stable N isotope content of the two species of copepods, with δ15N elevated by 0.5–1.1 per mil in the southern region, but no regional differences in the isotopic content of the chaetognaths. We address climate influences over a 54-year time period, on three different time scales: interannual (dominated by ENSO), decadal, and multi-decadal. Three of four species showed evidence of an ENSO-related isotopic shift toward increased 15N during El Nino conditions. In addition, in Southern California waters, C. pacificus and S. euneritica showed elevated δ15N in the warm phase of the NE Pacific between 1978 and 1998 relative to the preceding and following time periods. When considered over the entire 5½ decades treated here, for most species there was remarkable long-term stability in stable isotope content in both southern and central California waters, despite interannual and decadal perturbations. Only E. californicus in the southern sector showed a significant downward secular trend in δ15N. Variability of δ15N in 3 species covaried with the average nitrate concentration in the mixed layer, suggesting altered nitrate utilization at the base of the food web as a primary mechanism underlying interannual changes in zooplankton isotopic content.