• Energy Research

Slow progress in expanding clean cooking access is hindering progress on health, gender, equity, climate and air quality goals globally. Despite a rising population share with clean cooking access, the number of cooking poor remains stagnant. In this study we explored clean cooking access until 2050 under three reference scenarios, a COVID-19 recovery scenario and ambitious climate mitigation policy scenarios. Our analysis shows that universal access may not be achieved even in 2050. A protracted recession after the pandemic could leave an additional 470 million people unable to afford clean cooking services in 2030 relative to a reference scenario, with populations in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia the worst affected. Ambitious climate mitigation needs to be twinned with robust energy access policies to prevent an additional 200 million people being unable to transition to clean cooking in 2030. Our findings underline the need for immediate acceleration in efforts to make clean cooking accessible and affordable to all.

Policies that encourage a shift away from solid fuels can improve public health, welfare and the environment. However, impacts and their distribution are rarely evaluated. Now research shows that benefits to home comfort, indoor air quality and well-being from China’s coal-to-electricity programme vary across rich and poor districts.

AbstractStudies of global environmental change make extensive use of scenarios to explore how the future can evolve under a consistent set of assumptions. The recently developed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) create a framework for the study of climate-related scenario outcomes. Their five narratives span a wide range of worlds that vary in their challenges for climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here we provide background on the quantification that has been selected to serve as the reference, or ‘marker’, implementation for SSP2. The SSP2 narrative describes a middle-of-the-road development in the mitigation and adaptation challenges space. We explain how the narrative has been translated into quantitative assumptions in the IIASA Integrated Assessment Modelling Framework. We show that our SSP2 marker implementation occupies a central position for key metrics along the mitigation and adaptation challenge dimensions. For many dimensions the SSP2 marker implementation also reflects an extension of the historical experience, particularly in terms of carbon and energy intensity improvements in its baseline. This leads to a steady emissions increase over the 21st century, with projected end-of-century warming nearing 4°C relative to preindustrial levels. On the other hand, SSP2 also shows that global-mean temperature increase can be limited to below 2°C, pending stringent climate policies throughout the world. The added value of the SSP2 marker implementation for the wider scientific community is that it can serve as a starting point to further explore integrated solutions for achieving multiple societal objectives in light of the climate adaptation and mitigation challenges that society could face over the 21st century.

Both India and China are countries in energy transition. This paper compares the household energy transitions in these nations through the analysis of both aggregate statistics and nationally representative household surveys. The two countries differ sharply in several respects. Residential energy consumption in China is twice that in India, in aggregate terms. In addition, Chinese households have almost universal access to electricity, while in India almost half of rural households and 10% of urban households still lack access. On aggregate, urban households in China also derive a larger share of their total energy from liquid fuels and grids (77%) as compared to urban Indian households (65%). Yet, at every income level, Indians derive a slightly larger fraction of their total household energy needs from liquid and grid sources of energy than Chinese with comparable incomes. Despite these differences, trends in energy use and the factors influencing a transition to modern energy in both nations are similar. Compared with rural households, urban households in both nations consume a disproportionately large share of commercial energy and are much further along in the transition to modern energy. However, total energy consumption in rural households exceeds that in urban households, because of a continued dependence on inefficient solid fuels, which contribute to over 85% of rural household energy needs in both countries. In addition to urbanisation, key drivers of the transition in both nations include income, energy prices, energy access and local fuel availability.

Without additional support policies, clean cooking could become unaffordable for about 470 million people by 2030 if a post-pandemic recovery is slow, and about 200 million people by 2030 under ambitious climate mitigation action. Acceleration of clean cooking transitions by tapping into pandemic recovery and climate funds to target the poorest people and regions globally is urgently needed.

More than 70 million poor women in India have received liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) stoves within the first 35 months under a government programme, Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY). Here, we analyse multi-year LPG sales data from a district in Karnataka to assess enrolment and consumption trends for both PMUY beneficiaries and general (non-PMUY) rural consumers. We find rapid growth in enrolments of LPG consumers, but this is not matched by an increase in LPG sales, suggesting that LPG access has not induced a full transition away from the use of polluting solid fuels. The number of LPG refills among PMUY beneficiaries is less than half that of rural general consumers. We also find no observable increase in LPG consumption among general rural consumers with years of experience. These results suggest that mid-course policy revisions to encourage regular LPG use are needed for both PMUY and general rural consumers. India’s Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana is a programme that seeks to transition poor households away from unclean cooking fuels. In this Analysis, the authors use liquefied petroleum gas sales data to assess the adoption of cooking gas and the impact of this programme in a district of rural Karnataka.