• Energy Research

• Key message Insurance might be an efficient tool to strengthen adaptation of forest management to climate change. A theoretical model under uncertainty is proposed to highlight the effect, on adaptation decisions, of considering adaptation efforts in forest insurance contracts. Results show that insurance is relevant to increase adaptation efforts under some realistic conditions on forest owner’s uncertainty and risk preferences, and on the observability or not of adaptation efforts. • Context One of the challenges of forest adaptation to climate change is to encourage private forest owners to implement adaptation strategies. • Aims We suggest the analysis of forest insurance contracts against natural hazards as a vector to promote the implementation of adaptation efforts by private forest owners. • Methods We propose a theoretical model of insurance economics under risk and under uncertainty. • Results Our results indicate that when climate change makes the probability of the occurrence of the natural event uncertain, then it may be relevant to include adaptation efforts in the insurance contract, leading to an increase in the adaptation efforts of risk-averse and uncertainty-averse forest owners. In addition, we show that the relevance of insurance as a vector to promote adaptation efforts is greater when the forest owner’s effort is unobservable by the insurer as compared to a situation of perfectly observable effort. • Conclusion Under some realistic assumptions, the forest insurance contract seems to be a relevant tool to encourage forest owners to adapt to climate change.

Key message Insurance might be an efficient tool to strengthen adaptation of forest management to climate change. A theoretical model under uncertainty is proposed to highlight the effect, on adaptation decisions, of considering adaptation efforts in forest insurance contracts. Results show that insurance is relevant to increase adaptation efforts under some realistic conditions on forest owner's uncertainty and risk preferences, and on the observability or not of adaptation efforts. Context One of the challenges of forest adaptation to climate change is to encourage private forest owners to implement adaptation strategies. Aims We suggest the analysis of forest insurance contracts against natural hazards as a vector to promote the implementation of adaptation efforts by private forest owners. Methods We propose a theoretical model of insurance economics under risk and under uncertainty. Results Our results indicate that when climate change makes the probability of the occurrence of the natural event uncertain, then it may be relevant to include adaptation efforts in the insurance contract, leading to an increase in the adaptation efforts of risk- averse and uncertainty-averse forest owners. In addition, we show that the relevance of insurance as a vector to promote adaptation efforts is greater when the forest owner's effort is unobservable by the insurer as compared to a situation of perfectly observable effort. Conclusion Under some realistic assumptions, the forest insurance contract seems to be a relevant tool to encourage forest owners to adapt to climate change.

We propose to test the portfolio selection theory on the historical data of tree species’ productivities obtained from the French National Forest Inventory (IFN). We determine the optimal timber productivity-vulnerability arrangements out of the combinations of tree species and map the optimal compositions per administrative department in France. We also estimate the survivals of optimal portfolios using the species’ probabilities of presence. Our results show that greater weights in the optimal portfolios correspond to higher probabilities of presence.

In the context of climate change, the agricultural sector offers a large number of mitigation possibilities through diverse practices, such as the reduction of pollutant inputs. However, most farmers do not adopt the mitigation practices recommended, including the reduction of nitrogen fertilization. At the same time, various uncertainties characterize agricultural production, so that the farmer’s risk and ambiguity preferences may be potential determinants to the adoption of mitigation practices. In this context, the objective of the article is to determine if the farmer’s risk and ambiguity preferences explain (or not) the fertilization decision. A questionnaire was submitted to French farmers to elicit risk and ambiguity preferences through lottery choices, and ask questions about fertilization. Two regressions were realized, the first to explain the total fertilization and the second to identify the determinants of the first fertilization application. The results reveal that respondents were mostly risk-averse and ambiguity-neutral. In addition, risk and ambiguity aversion impact fertilization practices through diverse drivers in opposite directions. Indeed, being risk-averse is associated with a lower level of total fertilization, whereas ambiguity aversion has a positive and significant impact on the level of fertilization at the first application. This last result highlights the need to reduce the uncertainty farmers face.

L’objectif de cette étude est d’appliquer la théorie de la sélection de portefeuille à la diversité en essences des forêts françaises. Les titres financiers sont ainsi remplacés par les essences forestières. Le portefeuille optimal est celui qui minimise le risque, tout en maintenant la productivité actuelle. L’étude est menée par département et sur 11 essences : épicéa commun (Picea abies), sapin pectiné (Abies alba), pin sylvestre (Pinus sylvestris), pin maritime (Pinus pinaster), mélèze d’Europe (Larix decidua), douglas (Pseudotruga menziesii), chêne pédonculé (Quercus robur), chêne sessile (Quercus petraea), chêne pubescent (Quercus pubescens), chêne vert (Quercus ilex) et hêtre commun (Fagus sylvatica). Les données utilisées proviennent des bases de données de l’Institut de l’information géographique et forestière (IGN). Les sorties du modèle corroborent les recommandations actuelles. À l’échelle nationale, dans la partie méridionale, les auteurs observent une productivité moindre mais aussi une meilleure résistance. À l’inverse, le Nord, actuellement plus productif, est plus sensible aux perturbations. Ces résultats illustrent le fait que certains outils économiques et financiers peuvent être utilisés dans un contexte sylvicole, à des fins d’aide à la décision.

Au mois de juin, de forts épisodes de grêle se sont abattus sur la région Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes. S’ils sont restés très localisés, les dégâts ont néanmoins été considérables, avec des grêlons de la taille d’une balle de tennis. Face à la multitude de témoignages et de vidéos, notamment à Romans-sur-Isère dans la Drôme, l’actualité politique et médiatique s’est emparée des enjeux d’indemnisation et d’assurance, pour les agriculteurs notamment.Les assurances agricoles constituent un enjeu crucial pour les professionnels et la résilience du secteur agricole, notamment face au changement climatique et aux transformations que le secteur subit et s’apprête à subir. In June, strong episodes of hail struck the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region. Although they remained very localized, the damage was nevertheless considerable, with hail the size of a tennis ball. Faced with the multitude of testimonies and videos, particularly in Romans-sur-Isère in the Drôme, political and media news has taken hold of the issues of compensation and insurance, for farmers in particular.Agricultural insurance is a crucial issue for professionals and the resilience of the agricultural sector, particularly in the face of climate change and the transformations that the sector is undergoing and is about to undergo.

Abstract Drought is a source of stress that affects forest growth, resulting in financial losses for forest owners and amenity losses for society. Due to climate change, such natural events will be more frequent and intense in the future. In this context, the objective of this paper is to compare, from an economic perspective, different forest adaptation strategies towards a drought-induced risk of decline. For that purpose, we focused on a case study of a beech forest in Burgundy (France) and we studied several adaptation options: density reduction, reduction of the rotation length, and substitution with Douglas-fir. We also considered two levels of drought risk (intermediate and low soil water capacity) and two climate scenarios from the IPCC (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We combined a process-based forest-growth simulator (CASTANEA) with a traditional forest economics approach. The results showed that adaptation provided the best economic return in most of the scenarios considered. Combining strategies appears as a relevant way to adapt forests in view of a drought-induced risk of forest decline. We also demonstrated the importance of considering two disciplinary fields. Beneficial scenarios in an ecological perspective were not necessarily beneficial in an economic one and vice versa.