• Energy Research

Forecasting energy demand and supply is the most crucial concern for energy policymakers. However, forecasting may introduce uncertainty in the energy model, and an energy policy based on an uncertain model could be misleading. Without certainty in energy data, investors cannot quantify risk and trade-offs, which are compulsory for investments in energy projects. In this work, the energy policies of Pakistan are taken as a case study, and flaws in its energy policymaking are identified. A novel probabilistic model integrated with curve fitting methods was proposed and was applied to 17 different energy demand and supply variables. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was performed to develop probabilistic energy profiles for each year from 2017 to 2050. Results show that the forecasted energy supply of Pakistan in the years 2025 and 2050 would be 70.69 MTOE and 131.65 MTOE, respectively. The probabilistic analysis showed that there is 14% and 6% uncertainty in achieving these targets. The research shows the expected energy consumption of 70.33 MTOE and 189.48 MTOE in 2025 and 2050, respectively, indicating uncertainties of 65% and 31%. Based on the results, eight energy policy guidelines and recommendations are provided for sustainable energy resource management. This study recommends developing a robust and sustainable energy policy for Pakistan with the help of transparent governance.

Forecasting energy demand and supply is the most crucial concern for energy policymakers. However, forecasting may introduce uncertainty in the energy model, and an energy policy based on an uncertain model could be misleading. Without certainty in energy data, investors cannot quantify risk and trade-offs, which are compulsory for investments in energy projects. In this work, the energy policies of Pakistan are taken as a case study, and flaws in its energy policymaking are identified. A novel probabilistic model integrated with curve fitting methods was proposed and was applied to 17 different energy demand and supply variables. Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was performed to develop probabilistic energy profiles for each year from 2017 to 2050. Results show that the forecasted energy supply of Pakistan in the years 2025 and 2050 would be 70.69 MTOE and 131.65 MTOE, respectively. The probabilistic analysis showed that there is 14% and 6% uncertainty in achieving these targets. The research shows the expected energy consumption of 70.33 MTOE and 189.48 MTOE in 2025 and 2050, respectively, indicating uncertainties of 65% and 31%. Based on the results, eight energy policy guidelines and recommendations are provided for sustainable energy resource management. This study recommends developing a robust and sustainable energy policy for Pakistan with the help of transparent governance.

Abstract The elevated energy demands from past decades has created the energy gaps which can mainly be fulfilled through the consumption of natural fossil fuels but at the expense of increased greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, the need of clean and sustainable options to meet energy gaps have increased significantly. Gasification and steam methane reforming are the efficient technologies which resourcefully produce the syngas and hydrogen from coal and natural gas, respectively. The syngas and hydrogen can be further utilized to generate power or other Fischer Tropsch chemicals. In this study, two process models are developed and technically compared to analyze the production capacity of syngas and hydrogen. First model is developed based on conventional entrained flow gasification process which is validated with data provided by DOE followed by its integration with the reforming process that leads to the second model. The integrated gasification and reforming process model is developed to maximize the hydrogen production while reducing the overall carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, the integrated model eradicates the possibility of reformer’s catalyst deactivation due to significant amount of H2S present in the coal derived syngas. It has been seen from results that updated model offers 37% increase in H2/CO ratio, 10% increase in cold gas efficiency (CGE), 25% increase in overall H2 production, and 13% reduction in CO2 emission per unit amount of hydrogen production compared to base case model. Furthermore, economic analysis indicated 8% reduction in cost for case 2 while presenting 7% enhanced hydrogen contents.

Abstract The elevated energy demands from past decades has created the energy gaps which can mainly be fulfilled through the consumption of natural fossil fuels but at the expense of increased greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, the need of clean and sustainable options to meet energy gaps have increased significantly. Gasification and steam methane reforming are the efficient technologies which resourcefully produce the syngas and hydrogen from coal and natural gas, respectively. The syngas and hydrogen can be further utilized to generate power or other Fischer Tropsch chemicals. In this study, two process models are developed and technically compared to analyze the production capacity of syngas and hydrogen. First model is developed based on conventional entrained flow gasification process which is validated with data provided by DOE followed by its integration with the reforming process that leads to the second model. The integrated gasification and reforming process model is developed to maximize the hydrogen production while reducing the overall carbon dioxide emissions. Furthermore, the integrated model eradicates the possibility of reformer’s catalyst deactivation due to significant amount of H2S present in the coal derived syngas. It has been seen from results that updated model offers 37% increase in H2/CO ratio, 10% increase in cold gas efficiency (CGE), 25% increase in overall H2 production, and 13% reduction in CO2 emission per unit amount of hydrogen production compared to base case model. Furthermore, economic analysis indicated 8% reduction in cost for case 2 while presenting 7% enhanced hydrogen contents.