• Energy Research

Societal Impact StatementUnderstanding of tropical forests has been revolutionized by monitoring in permanent plots. Data from global plot networks have transformed our knowledge of forests’ diversity, function, contribution to global biogeochemical cycles, and sensitivity to climate change. Monitoring has thus far been concentrated in rain forests. Despite increasing appreciation of their threatened status, biodiversity, and importance to the global carbon cycle, monitoring in tropical dry forests is still in its infancy. We provide a protocol for permanent monitoring plots in tropical dry forests. Expanding monitoring into dry biomes is critical for overcoming the linked challenges of climate change, land use change, and the biodiversity crisis.

Abstract Wood density is a critical control on tree biomass, so poor understanding of its spatial variation can lead to large and systematic errors in forest biomass estimates and carbon maps. The need to understand how and why wood density varies is especially critical in tropical America where forests have exceptional species diversity and spatial turnover in composition. As tree identity and forest composition are challenging to estimate remotely, ground surveys are essential to know the wood density of trees, whether measured directly or inferred from their identity. Here, we assemble an extensive dataset of variation in wood density across the most forested and tree-diverse continent, examine how it relates to spatial and environmental variables, and use these relationships to predict spatial variation in wood density over tropical and sub-tropical South America. Our analysis refines previously identified east-west Amazon gradients in wood density, improves them by revealing fine-scale variation, and extends predictions into Andean, dry, and Atlantic forests. The results halve biomass prediction errors compared to a naïve scenario with no knowledge of spatial variation in wood density. Our findings will help improve remote sensing-based estimates of aboveground biomass carbon stocks across tropical South America.

We analyze here how much carbon is being accumulated annually by secondary tropical dry forests (TDFs) and how structure, composition, time since abandonment, and climate can influence the dynamics of forest carbon accumulation. The study was carried out in Santa Rosa National Park in Guanacaste province, Costa Rica and Mata Seca State Park in Minas Gerais, Brazil. Total carbon storage and carbon accumulation were obtained for both sites from the sum of the aboveground carbon and belowground carbon gain plus the annual litterfall. Carbon accumulation of these TDFs varied from 2.6 Mg C ha−1 y−1 to 6.3 Mg C ha−1 y−1, depending on the age of the forest stands. Time since abandonment and number of stems per plot were the best predictors for carbon storage, annual carbon gains, and losses. Mortality rates and carbon losses were also associated with seasonal climate variability. We found significant correlations between tree mortality, carbon losses and mean seasonal temperature, mean seasonal precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and the Oceanic Niño Index. Carbon dynamics in tropical dry forests are driven by time since abandonment and forest structure; however, rising temperature and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can have a significant impact on tree mortality and carbon losses. Depending on their location and land-use history, some dry forests are more impacted by climatic extremes than others, and differences between secondary stages are expected.

Climate change is expected to alter the environmental suitability of land use and land cover (LULC) classes globally. In this study, we investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the environmental suitability of the most representative LULC classes in the southern Brazilian semiarid region. We employed the Random Forest algorithm trained with climatic, soil, and topographic data to project future LULC suitability under the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 2.6 (optimistic) and 8.5 (pessimistic) scenarios. The climate data included the mean annual air temperature and precipitation from the WorldClim2 platform for historical (1970–2000) and future (2061–2080) scenarios. Soil data were obtained from the SoilGrids 2.1 digital soil mapping platform, while topographic data were produced by NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). Our model achieved an overall accuracy of 60%. Under the worst-case scenario (RCP 8.5), croplands may lose approximately 8% of their suitable area, while pastures are expected to expand by up to 30%. Areas suitable for savannas are expected to increase under both RCP scenarios, potentially expanding into lands historically occupied by forests, grasslands, and eucalyptus plantations. These projected changes may lead to biodiversity loss and socioeconomic disruptions in the study area.