• Energy Research

Macroclimatic niches are indirect and potentially inadequate predictors of the realized environmental conditions that many species experience. Consequently, analyses of niche evolution based on macroclimatic data alone may incompletely represent the evolutionary dynamics of species niches. Yet, understanding how an organisms' climatic (Grinnellian) niche responds to changing macroclimatic conditions is of vital importance for predicting their potential response to global change. In this study, we integrate microclimatic and macroclimatic data across 26 species of plethodontid salamanders to portray the relationship between microclimatic niche evolution in response to changing macroclimate. We demonstrate stronger phylogenetic signal in microclimatic niche variables than at the macroclimatic scale. Even so, we find that the microclimatic niche tracks climatic changes at the macroscale, but with a phylogenetic lag at million-year timescales. We hypothesize that behavioral tracking of the microclimatic niche over space and phenology generates the lag: salamanders preferentially select microclimates similar to their ancestral conditions rather than adapting with changes in physiology. We demonstrate that macroclimatic variables are weak predictors of niche evolution and that incorporating spatial scale into analyses of niche evolution is critical for predicting responses to climate change.

AbstractEctothermic animals, such as amphibians and reptiles, are particularly sensitive to rapidly warming global temperatures. One response in these organisms may be to evolve aspects of their thermal physiology. If this response is adaptive and can occur on the appropriate time scale, it may facilitate population or species persistence in the changed environments. However, thermal physiological traits have classically been thought to evolve too slowly to keep pace with environmental change in longer‐lived vertebrates. Even as empirical work of the mid‐20th century offers mixed support for conservatism in thermal physiological traits, the generalization of low evolutionary potential in thermal traits is commonly invoked. Here, we revisit this hypothesis to better understand the mechanisms guiding the timing and patterns of physiological evolution. Characterizing the potential interactions among evolution, plasticity, behavior, and ontogenetic shifts in thermal physiology is critical for accurate prediction of how organisms will respond to our rapidly warming world. Recent work provides evidence that thermal physiological traits are not as evolutionarily rigid as once believed, with many examples of divergence in several aspects of thermal physiology at multiple phylogenetic scales. However, slow rates of evolution are often still observed, particularly at the warm end of the thermal performance curve. Furthermore, the context‐specificity of many responses makes broad generalizations about the potential evolvability of traits tenuous. We outline potential factors and considerations that require closer scrutiny to understand and predict reptile and amphibian evolutionary responses to climate change, particularly regarding the underlying genetic architecture facilitating or limiting thermal evolution.