• Energy Research

The rate of climate change (CC) has accelerated to the point where it now affects the mid- to long-term sustainability of fishing strategies. Therefore, it is important to consider practical and effective ways to incorporate CC into fisheries advice so that the advice can be considered conditioned to CC. We developed a model to characterise the empirical relationship between a variable affected by climate and fish production. We then used model projections as a foundation for a risk analysis of CC effects on harvesting of Greenland halibut Reinhardtius hippoglossoides in the Gulf of St Lawrence, Canada. The risk-based approach quantified a) the relative change in risk of a status quo fishing strategy under various CC scenarios, and b) the change in fishery exploitation rates required to achieve a management objective over a specified time period at a level of risk considered acceptable (risk equivalent fishery exploitation advice). This empirical approach can be used to develop risk-based advice for any other external variable that affects stock production in addition to climate-related variables and it can be applied in most situations where there is an index of stock biomass and fisheries catch. Shifting the focus from process-based understanding of the responses of fish stocks to CC to quantification of how CC-contributed uncertainty can alter the risks associated with different fishing strategies and/or management options, can ensure timely delivery of robust scientific advice for fisheries under non-stationary environmental conditions.

The rate of climate change (CC) has accelerated to the point where it now affects the mid- to long-term sustainability of fishing strategies. Therefore, it is important to consider practical and effective ways to incorporate CC into fisheries advice so that the advice can be considered conditioned to CC. We developed a model to characterise the empirical relationship between a variable affected by climate and fish production. We then used model projections as a foundation for a risk analysis of CC effects on harvesting of Greenland halibut Reinhardtius hippoglossoides in the Gulf of St Lawrence, Canada. The risk-based approach quantified a) the relative change in risk of a status quo fishing strategy under various CC scenarios, and b) the change in fishery exploitation rates required to achieve a management objective over a specified time period at a level of risk considered acceptable (risk equivalent fishery exploitation advice). This empirical approach can be used to develop risk-based advice for any other external variable that affects stock production in addition to climate-related variables and it can be applied in most situations where there is an index of stock biomass and fisheries catch. Shifting the focus from process-based understanding of the responses of fish stocks to CC to quantification of how CC-contributed uncertainty can alter the risks associated with different fishing strategies and/or management options, can ensure timely delivery of robust scientific advice for fisheries under non-stationary environmental conditions.

Abstract Social-ecological systems dependent on fisheries must be resilient or adapt to remain viable in the face of change. Here, we identified possible interventions (termed “adaptation options”) from published literature, aimed at supporting social or ecological resilience and/or aiding adaptation to changes induced by environmental or social stressors. Our searches centered on nations/regions across North America, Europe, and the South Pacific, encompassing fisheries literature with and without a climate change focus, to compare how, when, and by whom interventions are currently or potentially implemented. We expected that adaptation options within a climate change context would have a greater focus on enhancing social resilience due to a connection with climate change adaptation assessment methodology. Instead, we found a greater focus on ecological resilience, likely indicating a focus on management adaptation. This pattern, along with the more extensive use of social adaptation options responsively and outside the context of climate change, along with an importance in bottom-up influences in implementing them, suggests a general lack of centralized planning and organization with regards to adaptation of stakeholders. Determining how adaptation options are created, chosen, and implemented is a crucial step within or external to ecosystem-based management, especially if planned stakeholder adaption is the goal.

Abstract Social-ecological systems dependent on fisheries must be resilient or adapt to remain viable in the face of change. Here, we identified possible interventions (termed “adaptation options”) from published literature, aimed at supporting social or ecological resilience and/or aiding adaptation to changes induced by environmental or social stressors. Our searches centered on nations/regions across North America, Europe, and the South Pacific, encompassing fisheries literature with and without a climate change focus, to compare how, when, and by whom interventions are currently or potentially implemented. We expected that adaptation options within a climate change context would have a greater focus on enhancing social resilience due to a connection with climate change adaptation assessment methodology. Instead, we found a greater focus on ecological resilience, likely indicating a focus on management adaptation. This pattern, along with the more extensive use of social adaptation options responsively and outside the context of climate change, along with an importance in bottom-up influences in implementing them, suggests a general lack of centralized planning and organization with regards to adaptation of stakeholders. Determining how adaptation options are created, chosen, and implemented is a crucial step within or external to ecosystem-based management, especially if planned stakeholder adaption is the goal.

In the coming decades, warming and deoxygenation of marine waters are anticipated to result in shifts in the distribution and abundance of fishes, with consequences for the diversity and composition of fish communities. Here, we combine fisheries-independent trawl survey data spanning the west coast of the USA and Canada with high-resolution regional ocean models to make projections of how 34 groundfish species will be impacted by changes in temperature and oxygen in British Columbia (BC) and Washington. In this region, species that are projected to decrease in occurrence are roughly balanced by those that are projected to increase, resulting in considerable compositional turnover. Many, but not all, species are projected to shift to deeper depths as conditions warm, but low oxygen will limit how deep they can go. Thus, biodiversity will likely decrease in the shallowest waters (less than 100 m), where warming will be greatest, increase at mid-depths (100–600 m) as shallow species shift deeper, and decrease at depths where oxygen is limited (greater than 600 m). These results highlight the critical importance of accounting for the joint role of temperature, oxygen and depth when projecting the impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions’.

In the coming decades, warming and deoxygenation of marine waters are anticipated to result in shifts in the distribution and abundance of fishes, with consequences for the diversity and composition of fish communities. Here, we combine fisheries-independent trawl survey data spanning the west coast of the USA and Canada with high-resolution regional ocean models to make projections of how 34 groundfish species will be impacted by changes in temperature and oxygen in British Columbia (BC) and Washington. In this region, species that are projected to decrease in occurrence are roughly balanced by those that are projected to increase, resulting in considerable compositional turnover. Many, but not all, species are projected to shift to deeper depths as conditions warm, but low oxygen will limit how deep they can go. Thus, biodiversity will likely decrease in the shallowest waters (less than 100 m), where warming will be greatest, increase at mid-depths (100–600 m) as shallow species shift deeper, and decrease at depths where oxygen is limited (greater than 600 m). These results highlight the critical importance of accounting for the joint role of temperature, oxygen and depth when projecting the impacts of climate change on marine biodiversity. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions’.