• Energy Research

Probabilistic projections of sea level rise (SLR) induced in Europe using the Bruun rule model and regional probabilistic SLR projections under RCP 4.5 and a high-end RCP 8.5 scenarios. Four different combinations of sandy beach location and nearshore slope data result in four different projections of shoreline retreat along the European coastline.

This data is complementary to the paper by Leijnse et al. 2022 "Generating reliable estimates of tropical cyclone induced coastal hazards along the Bay of Bengal for current and future climates using synthetic tracks" https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-181 This data is made available in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE For questions about the data ask: tim.leijnse@deltares.nl For more information about the tool to generate the used synthetic tracks TCWiSE see: https://www.deltares.nl/en/software/tcwise/ Use as you like - but be aware of the limitations of the results regarding e.g. model resolution as described in the discussion section of the paper {"references": ["https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-2021-181"]}

AbstractThe impacts of climate change (CC) on droughts are well documented, but the effects of land-use change (LUC) are poorly understood. This study compares the projected individual and combined impacts of these stressors on future droughts (2021–2050), with respect to baseline (1981–2010) in one of the major tributaries of the Mekong River. LUC impacts on hydrological droughts are minimal compared to CC, with the latter expected to shorten the recurrence interval of a 20-year return period event to every 14 years. Both CC and LUC have significant impacts on agricultural droughts with heightened sensitivity. ‘Once in a Decade’ agricultural droughts will be 40% (35%) longer and 88% (87%) more severe under the CC (LUC) scenario. Under both stressors, the events occurring every 20 years will be twice as frequent. Results highlight the intensification of future droughts and the urgency for actions to mitigate/adapt to climate change and manage land use. Future policy shall holistically address agricultural water management, sustainable land use management, and crop management to cope with future droughts. We recommend developing resilient agricultural practices, enhanced water resource management strategies, and incorporating drought risk into land-use planning to mitigate the compounded impacts of CC and LUC.

AbstractSmall Island Developing States (SIDS) have long been recognized as some of the planet’s most vulnerable areas to climate change, notably to rising sea levels and coastal extremes. They have been crucial in raising ambitions to keep global warming below 1.5 °C and in advancing the difficult debate on loss and damage. Still, quantitative estimates of loss and damage for SIDS under different mitigation targets are lacking. Here we carry out an assessment of future flood risk from slow-onset sea-level rise and episodic sea-level extremes along the coastlines of SIDS worldwide. We show that by the end of this century, without adaptation, climate change would amplify present direct economic damages from coastal flooding by more than 14 times under high-emissions scenarios. Keeping global warming below 1.5 °C could avoid almost half of unmitigated damage, depending on the region. Achieving this climate target, however, would still not prevent several SIDS from suffering economic losses that correspond to considerable shares of their GDP, probably leading to forced migration from low-lying coastal zones. Our results underline that investments in adaptation and sustainable development in SIDS are urgently needed, as well as dedicated support to assisting developing countries in responding to loss and damage due to climate change.