• Energy Research

We present a framework to measure the strength of environmental filtering and disequilibrium of the species composition of a local community across time, relative to past, current, and future climates. We demonstrate the framework by measuring the impact of climate change on New World forests, integrating data for climate niches of more than 14 000 species, community composition of 471 New World forest plots, and observed climate across the most recent glacial–interglacial interval. We show that a majority of communities have species compositions that are strongly filtered and are more in equilibrium with current climate than random samples from the regional pool. Variation in the level of current community disequilibrium can be predicted from Last Glacial Maximum climate and will increase with near‐future climate change.

We present a framework to measure the strength of environmental filtering and disequilibrium of the species composition of a local community across time, relative to past, current, and future climates. We demonstrate the framework by measuring the impact of climate change on New World forests, integrating data for climate niches of more than 14 000 species, community composition of 471 New World forest plots, and observed climate across the most recent glacial–interglacial interval. We show that a majority of communities have species compositions that are strongly filtered and are more in equilibrium with current climate than random samples from the regional pool. Variation in the level of current community disequilibrium can be predicted from Last Glacial Maximum climate and will increase with near‐future climate change.

Although precipitation patterns have long been known to shape plant distributions1, the effect of changing climate on the interactions of species and therefore community composition is far less understood2,3. Here, we explored how changes in precipitation alter competitive dynamics via direct effects on individual species, as well as by the changing strength of competitive interactions between species, using an annual grassland community in California. We grew plants under ambient and reduced precipitation in the field to parameterize a competition model4 with which we quantified the stabilizing niche and fitness differences that determine species coexistence in each rainfall regime. We show that reduced precipitation had little direct effect on species grown alone, but it qualitatively shifted predicted competitive outcomes for 10 of 15 species pairs. In addition, species pairs that were functionally more similar were less likely to experience altered outcomes, indicating that functionally diverse communities may be most threatened by changing interactions. Our results highlight how important it is to account for changes to species interactions when predicting species and community response to global change.

Although precipitation patterns have long been known to shape plant distributions1, the effect of changing climate on the interactions of species and therefore community composition is far less understood2,3. Here, we explored how changes in precipitation alter competitive dynamics via direct effects on individual species, as well as by the changing strength of competitive interactions between species, using an annual grassland community in California. We grew plants under ambient and reduced precipitation in the field to parameterize a competition model4 with which we quantified the stabilizing niche and fitness differences that determine species coexistence in each rainfall regime. We show that reduced precipitation had little direct effect on species grown alone, but it qualitatively shifted predicted competitive outcomes for 10 of 15 species pairs. In addition, species pairs that were functionally more similar were less likely to experience altered outcomes, indicating that functionally diverse communities may be most threatened by changing interactions. Our results highlight how important it is to account for changes to species interactions when predicting species and community response to global change.

Plant functional group dominance has been linked to climate, topography and anthropogenic factors. Here, we assess existing theory linking functional group dominance patterns to their drivers by quantifying the spatial distribution of plant functional groups at a 100-km grid scale. We use a standardized plant species occurrence dataset of unprecedented size covering the entire New World. Functional group distributions were estimated from 3 648 533 standardized occurrence records for a total of 83 854 vascular plant species, extracted from the Botanical Information and Ecology Network (BIEN) database. Seven plant functional groups were considered, describing major differences in structure and function: epiphytes; climbers; ferns; herbs; shrubs; coniferous trees; and angiosperm trees. Two measures of dominance (relative number of occurrences and relative species richness) were analysed against a range of hypothesized predictors. The functional groups showed distinct geographical patterns of dominance across the New World. Temperature seasonality and annual precipitation were most frequently selected, supporting existing hypotheses for the geographical dominance of each functional group. Human influence and topography were secondarily important. Our results support the prediction that future climate change and anthropogenic pressures could shift geographical patterns in dominance of plant functional groups, with probable consequences for ecosystem functioning.

Plant functional group dominance has been linked to climate, topography and anthropogenic factors. Here, we assess existing theory linking functional group dominance patterns to their drivers by quantifying the spatial distribution of plant functional groups at a 100-km grid scale. We use a standardized plant species occurrence dataset of unprecedented size covering the entire New World. Functional group distributions were estimated from 3 648 533 standardized occurrence records for a total of 83 854 vascular plant species, extracted from the Botanical Information and Ecology Network (BIEN) database. Seven plant functional groups were considered, describing major differences in structure and function: epiphytes; climbers; ferns; herbs; shrubs; coniferous trees; and angiosperm trees. Two measures of dominance (relative number of occurrences and relative species richness) were analysed against a range of hypothesized predictors. The functional groups showed distinct geographical patterns of dominance across the New World. Temperature seasonality and annual precipitation were most frequently selected, supporting existing hypotheses for the geographical dominance of each functional group. Human influence and topography were secondarily important. Our results support the prediction that future climate change and anthropogenic pressures could shift geographical patterns in dominance of plant functional groups, with probable consequences for ecosystem functioning.

As Earth’s climate has varied strongly through geological time, studying the impacts of past climate change on biodiversity helps to understand the risks from future climate change. However, it remains unclear how paleoclimate shapes spatial variation in biodiversity. Here, we assessed the influence of Quaternary climate change on spatial dissimilarity in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional composition among neighboring 200-kilometer cells (beta-diversity) for angiosperm trees worldwide. We found that larger glacial-interglacial temperature change was strongly associated with lower spatial turnover (species replacements) and higher nestedness (richness changes) components of beta-diversity across all three biodiversity facets. Moreover, phylogenetic and functional turnover was lower and nestedness higher than random expectations based on taxonomic beta-diversity in regions that experienced large temperature change, reflecting phylogenetically and functionally selective processes in species replacement, extinction, and colonization during glacial-interglacial oscillations. Our results suggest that future human-driven climate change could cause local homogenization and reduction in taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity of angiosperm trees worldwide.