• Energy Research

France is a major agricultural power, characterized by a high degree of regional specialization, either in stockless cash crop farming, exporting most of its intensive cereal production, or in intensive livestock farming highly dependent on foreign feed imports. This agricultural model is characterized by wide nutrient and carbon cycle opening and severe environmental pollution. Based on the nutrient accounting GRAFS model, two contrasted scenarios for the French agricultural system at the 2050 horizon have recently been designed and evaluated for their capacity to meet both the national population's food demand and environmental standards in terms of water pollution. The first scenario (O/S, for opening and specialization) assumes the continuation of the current trends of intensification, specialization, and opening to international markets. The second one (A/R/D, for autonomy, reconnection, and demitarian diet) assumes a radical change toward organic farming with diversification of crop rotations, reconnection of crop and livestock farming, and reduction of the proportion of animal proteins in the human diet. Herein we calculate the budget of CO2 emissions and C sequestration in soils of these two scenarios compared with the current situation of the French agro-food system, by coupling the GRAFS and AMG models. These simulations reveal that the overall CO2 emissions balance of the O/S scenario is far higher than those of the A/R/D, namely because of the emissions associated with mineral fertilizer manufacture, and imported feed and mechanization of land management requiring a large amount of fossil fuel. As the organic carbon content of the soil is known to be highly path-dependent (in the sense that it is the inheritance of previous land use practices), we tested the effect of two rates of implementation of the two scenarios and evaluated the response time of the C soil store, which is of the order of two decades or more. This reveals that after about two-three decades following the implementation of a scenario, an equilibrium is reached with no more net soil C emission nor sequestration.

The contribution of artificial reservoirs to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has been emphasized in previous studies. In the present study, we collected and updated data on GHG emission rates from reservoirs at the global scale, and applied a new classification method based on the hydrobelt concept. Our results showed that CH4 and CO2 emissions were significantly different in the hydrobelt groups (p < 0.01), while no significant difference was found for N2O emissions, possibly due to their limited measurements. We found that annual GHG emissions (calculated as C or N) from global reservoirs amounted to 12.9 Tg CH4-C, 50.8 Tg CO2-C, and 0.04 Tg N2O-N. Furthermore, GHG emissions (calculated as CO2 equivalents) were also estimated for the 1950–2017 period based on the cumulative number and surface area of global reservoirs in the different hydrobelts. The highest increase rate in both the number of reservoirs and their surface area, which occurred from 1950 to the 1980s, led to an increase in GHG emissions from reservoirs. Since then, the increase rate of reservoir construction, and hence GHG emissions, has slowed down. Moreover, we also examined the potential impact of reservoir eutrophication on GHG emissions and found that GHG emissions from reservoirs could increase by 40% under conditions in which total phosphorus would double. In addition, we showed that the characteristics of reservoirs (e.g., geographical location) and their catchments (e.g., surrounding terrestrial net primary production, and precipitation) may influence GHG emissions. Overall, a major finding of our study was to provide an estimate of the impact of large reservoirs during the 1950–2017 period, in terms of GHG emissions. This should help anticipate future GHG emissions from reservoirs considering all reservoirs being planned worldwide. Besides using the classification per hydrobelt and thus reconnecting reservoirs to their watersheds, our study further emphasized the efforts to be made regarding the measurement of GHG emissions in some hydrobelts and in considering the growing number of reservoirs.

Studies quantifying the impact of climate change have so far mostly examined atmospheric variables, and few are evaluating the cascade of aquatic impacts that will occur along the land–ocean continuum until the ultimate impacts on coastal eutrophication potential. In this study, a new hydro-biogeochemical modeling chain has been developed, based on the coupling of the generic pyNuts-Riverstrahler biogeochemical model and the GR4J-CEMANEIGE hydrological model, and applied to the Seine River basin (France). Averaged responses of biogeochemical variables to climate-induced hydrological changes were assessed using climate forcing based on 12 projections of precipitation and temperature (BC-CORDEX) for the stabilization (RCP 4.5) and the increasing (RCP 8.5) CO2 emission scenarios. Beyond the amount of nutrients delivered to the sea, we calculated the indicator of coastal eutrophication potential (ICEP). The models run with the RCP4.5 stabilization scenario show low variations in hydrological regimes and water quality, while five of the six models run with the increasing CO2 emissions scenario (RCP8.5) leads to more intense extreme streamflow (i.e., higher maximum flows, lower and longer minimum flows), resulting in the degradation of water quality. For the driest RCP 8.5 projection, median biogeochemical impacts induced by decreasing discharge (until −270 m3 s−1 in average) are mostly located downstream of major wastewater treatment plants. During spring bloom, e.g., in May, the associated higher residence time leads to an increase of phytoplankton biomass (+31% in average), with a simultaneous −23% decrease of silicic acid, followed downstream by a −9% decrease of oxygen. Later during low flow, major increases in nitrate and phosphate concentrations (until +19% and +32% in average) are expected. For all considered scenarios, high ICEP values (above zero) lasted, indicating that coastal eutrophication is not expected to decrease with changing hydrological conditions in the future. Maximum values are even expected to be higher some years. This study deliberately evaluates the impact of modified hydrology on biogeochemistry without considering the simultaneous alteration of water temperatures, in order to disentangle the causes of climate change-induced impact. It will serve as a first comparative step toward a more complete modeling experiment of climate change impacts on aquatic systems.

There is a constant need for direct counting of biotic nanoparticles such as viruses to unravel river functioning. We used, for the first time in freshwater, a new method based on interferometry differentiating viruses from other particles such as membrane vesicles. In the French Marne River, viruses represented between 42 and 72% of the particles. A spring monitoring in 2014 revealed their increase (2.1 × 107 to 2.1 × 108 mL-1) linked to an increase in algal biomass and diversity of bacterial plankton. Predicted virus size distributions were in agreement with transmission electron microscopy analysis suggesting a dominance of large viruses (≥60 nm).

To explore the evolution of a human impacted river, the Seine (France), over the 21st century, three driving factors were examined: climate, agriculture, and point source inputs of domestic and industrial origin. Three future scenarios were constructed, by modification of a baseline representative of recent conditions. A climate change scenario, based on simulations by a general circulation model driven by the SRES-A2 scenario of radiative forcing, accounts for an average warming of +3.3 degrees C over the watershed and marked winter increase and summer decrease in precipitation. To illustrate a possible reduction in nitrate pollution from agricultural origin, a scenario of good agricultural practices was considered, introducing catch crops and a 20% decrease in nitrogen fertilisation. Future point source pollution was estimated following the assumptions embedded in scenario SRES-A2 regarding demographic, economic and technologic changes, leading to reductions of 30 to 75% compared to 2000, depending on the pollutants. Four models, addressing separate components of the river system (agronomical model, hydrogeological model, land surface model and water quality model), were used to analyse the relative impact of these scenarios on water quality, in light of their impact on hydrology and crop production. The first-order driving factor of water quality over the 21st century is the projected reduction of point source pollution, inducing a noticeable decrease in eutrophication and oxygen deficits downstream from Paris. The impact of climate change on these terms is driven by the warming of the water column. It enhances algal growth in spring and the loss factors responsible for phytoplankton mortality in late summer (grazers and viruses). In contrast, increased seasonal contrasts in river discharge have a negligible impact on river water quality, as do the changes in riverine nitrate concentration, which never gets limiting. The latter changes have a similar magnitude under the three scenarios. Under climate change, riverine and groundwater nitrate concentrations increase and crop production is advantaged with reduced growing cycles and increased yields. In contrast, nitrate concentrations decrease under the good agricultural practices scenario, with a limited decrease in crop production. When these two scenarios are combined, the changes in nitrate concentrations balance each other and crop yields increase. The results of this numerical exercise indicate that the potential changes to the Seine River system during the 21st century will not lead to severely degraded water quality.