• Energy Research

Lake ice phenology (timing of ice breakup and freeze up) is a sensitive indicator of climate. We acquired time series of lake ice breakup and freeze up, local weather conditions, and large-scale climate oscillations from 1981–2015 for seven lakes in northern Wisconsin, USA, and two lakes in Ontario, Canada. Multiple linear regression models were developed to understand the drivers of lake ice phenology. We used projected air temperature and precipitation from 126 climate change scenarios to forecast the day of year of ice breakup and freeze up in 2050 and 2070. Lake ice melted 5 days earlier and froze 8 days later over the past 35 years. Warmer spring and winter air temperatures contributed to earlier ice breakup; whereas warmer November temperatures delayed lake freeze. Lake ice breakup is projected to be 13 days earlier on average by 2070, but could vary by 3 days later to 43 days earlier depending upon the degree of climatic warming by late century. Similarly, the timing of lake freeze up is projected to be delayed by 11 days on average by 2070, but could be 1 to 28 days later. Shortened seasonality of ice cover by 24 days could increase risk of algal blooms, reduce habitat for coldwater fisheries, and jeopardize survival of northern communities reliant on ice roads.

AbstractGlobally, lake surface water temperatures have warmed rapidly relative to air temperatures, but changes in deepwater temperatures and vertical thermal structure are still largely unknown. We have compiled the most comprehensive data set to date of long-term (1970–2009) summertime vertical temperature profiles in lakes across the world to examine trends and drivers of whole-lake vertical thermal structure. We found significant increases in surface water temperatures across lakes at an average rate of + 0.37 °C decade−1, comparable to changes reported previously for other lakes, and similarly consistent trends of increasing water column stability (+ 0.08 kg m−3decade−1). In contrast, however, deepwater temperature trends showed little change on average (+ 0.06 °C decade−1), but had high variability across lakes, with trends in individual lakes ranging from − 0.68 °C decade−1to + 0.65 °C decade−1. The variability in deepwater temperature trends was not explained by trends in either surface water temperatures or thermal stability within lakes, and only 8.4% was explained by lake thermal region or local lake characteristics in a random forest analysis. These findings suggest that external drivers beyond our tested lake characteristics are important in explaining long-term trends in thermal structure, such as local to regional climate patterns or additional external anthropogenic influences.

AbstractIn this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite‐derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade−1) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice‐covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade−1) to ice‐free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade−1). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.

AbstractHydrological events transport large proportions of annual or seasonal dissolved organic carbon (DOC) loads from catchments to streams. The timing, magnitude and intensity of these events are very sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, particularly across the boreal region where snowpacks are declining and summer droughts are increasing. It is important to understand how landscape characteristics modulate event‐scale DOC dynamics in order to scale up predictions from sites across regions, and to understand how climatic changes will influence DOC dynamics across the boreal forest. The goal of this study was to assess variability in DOC concentrations in boreal headwater streams across catchments with varying physiographic characteristics (e.g., size, proportion of wetland) during a range of hydrological events (e.g., spring snowmelt, summer/fall storm events). From 2016 to 2017, continuous discharge and sub‐daily chemistry grab samples were collected from three adjacent study catchments located at the International Institute for Sustainable Development‐Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario, Canada. Catchment differences were more apparent in summer and fall events and less apparent during early spring melt events. Hysteresis analysis suggested that DOC sources were proximal to the stream for all events at a catchment dominated by a large wetland near the outlet, but distal from the stream at the catchments that lacked significant wetland coverage during the summer and fall. Wetland coverage also influenced responses of DOC export to antecedent moisture; at the wetland‐dominated catchment, there were consistent negative relationships between DOC concentrations and antecedent moisture, while at the catchments without large wetlands, the relationships were positive or not significant. These results emphasize the utility of sub‐daily sampling for inferring catchment DOC transport processes, and the importance of considering catchment‐specific factors when predicting event‐scale DOC behaviour.