• Energy Research

AbstractForests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

AbstractKey messageA climate-sensitive aboveground biomass (AGB) equation, in combination with nonlinear mixed-effects modeling and dummy variable approach, was developed to examine how climate change may affect the allometric relationships between tree diameter and biomass. We showed that such changes in allometry need to be taken into account for estimating tree AGB in Masson pine.ContextAs a native species and being widely distributed in subtropical China, Masson pine (Pinus massoniana Lamb.) forests play a pivotal role in maintaining forest ecosystem functions and mitigation of carbon concentration increase at the atmosphere. Traditional biomass allometric equations do not account for a potential effect of climate on the diameter–biomass relationships. The amplitude of such an effect remains poorly documented.AimsWe presented a novel method for detecting the long-term (2041–2080) effects of climate change on the diameter–biomass relationships and the potential consequences for long-term changes of biomass accumulation for Masson pine.MethodsOur approach was based on a climate-sensitive AGB model developed using a combined nonlinear mixed-effects model and dummy variable approach. Various climate-related variables were evaluated for their contributions to model improvement. Heteroscedasticity was accounted for by three residual variance functions: exponential function, power function, and constant plus function.ResultsThe results showed that diameter at breast height, together with the long-term average of growing season temperature, total growing season precipitation, mean temperature of wettest quarter, and precipitation of wettest quarter, had significant effects on values of AGB. Excessive rain during the growing season and high mean temperature in the wettest quarter reduced the AGB, while a warm growing season and abundant precipitation in the wettest quarter increased the AGB.ConclusionClimate change significantly affected the allometric scale of biomass equation. The new climate-sensitive allometric model developed in this study may improve biomass predictions compared with the traditional model without climate effects. Our findings suggested that the AGB of Masson pine trees with the same diameter at breast height under three climate scenarios including representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 in the future period 2041–2080 would increase by 24.8 ± 32.7% (mean ± standard deviation), 27.0 ± 33.4%, and 27.7 ± 33.8% compared with the constant climate (1950–2000), respectively. As a consequence, we may expect a significant regional variability and uncertainty in biomass estimates under climate change.

Abstract Species’ traits and environmental conditions determine the abundance of tree species across the globe. The extent to which traits of dominant and rare tree species differ remains untested across a broad environmental range, limiting our understanding of how species traits and the environment shape forest functional composition. We use a global dataset of tree composition of >22,000 forest plots and 11 traits of 1663 tree species to ask how locally dominant and rare species differ in their trait values, and how these differences are driven by climatic gradients in temperature and water availability in forest biomes across the globe. We find three consistent trait differences between locally dominant and rare species across all biomes; dominant species are taller, have softer wood and higher loading on the multivariate stem strategy axis (related to narrow tracheids and thick bark). The difference between traits of dominant and rare species is more strongly driven by temperature compared to water availability, as temperature might affect a larger number of traits. Therefore, climate change driven global temperature rise may have a strong effect on trait differences between dominant and rare tree species and may lead to changes in species abundances and therefore strong community reassembly.

Le gradient de diversité latitudinale (LDG) est l'un des modèles mondiaux de richesse en espèces les plus reconnus dans un large éventail de taxons. De nombreuses hypothèses ont été proposées au cours des deux derniers siècles pour expliquer le LDG, mais des tests rigoureux des facteurs de LDG ont été limités par un manque de données mondiales de haute qualité sur la richesse en espèces. Ici, nous produisons une carte à haute résolution (0,025° × 0,025°) de la richesse des espèces d'arbres locales à l'aide d'une base de données d'inventaire forestier mondial avec des informations sur les arbres individuels et des caractéristiques biophysiques locales à partir d'environ 1,3 million de placettes-échantillons. Nous quantifions ensuite les moteurs des modèles de richesse des espèces d'arbres locales à travers les latitudes. En général, la température moyenne annuelle était un prédicteur dominant de la richesse des espèces d'arbres, ce qui est le plus conforme à la théorie métabolique de la biodiversité (MTB). Cependant, le MTB a sous-estimé le LDG sous les tropiques, où la richesse élevée en espèces a également été modérée par des facteurs topographiques, pédologiques et anthropiques opérant à l'échelle locale. Étant donné que les variables locales du paysage agissent en synergie avec les facteurs bioclimatiques dans la formation du modèle mondial de LDG, nous suggérons que le MTB soit étendu pour tenir compte de la co-limitation par les conducteurs subordonnés. En examinant les facteurs du gradient latitudinal de biodiversité dans une base de données mondiale sur la richesse des espèces locales d'arbres, les auteurs montrent que la co-limitation par de multiples facteurs environnementaux et anthropiques provoque des augmentations plus importantes de la richesse avec la latitude dans les zones tropicales par rapport aux zones tempérées et boréales. El gradiente de diversidad latitudinal (LDG) es uno de los patrones globales más reconocidos de riqueza de especies que se exhiben en una amplia gama de taxones. Se han propuesto numerosas hipótesis en los últimos dos siglos para explicar la LDG, pero las pruebas rigurosas de los impulsores de las LDG se han visto limitadas por la falta de datos globales de alta calidad sobre la riqueza de especies. Aquí producimos un mapa de alta resolución (0.025° × 0.025°) de la riqueza de especies de árboles locales utilizando una base de datos de inventario forestal global con información de árboles individuales y características biofísicas locales de ~ 1.3 millones de parcelas de muestra. A continuación, cuantificamos los impulsores de los patrones de riqueza de especies arbóreas locales en todas las latitudes. En general, la temperatura media anual fue un predictor dominante de la riqueza de especies de árboles, lo que es más consistente con la teoría metabólica de la biodiversidad (MTB). Sin embargo, el MTB subestimó el LDG en los trópicos, donde la alta riqueza de especies también fue moderada por factores topográficos, del suelo y antropogénicos que operan a escala local. Dado que las variables del paisaje local operan sinérgicamente con factores bioclimáticos en la configuración del patrón global de LDG, sugerimos que el MTB se extienda para tener en cuenta la co-limitación por parte de los conductores subordinados. Al examinar los impulsores del gradiente de biodiversidad latitudinal en una base de datos global de la riqueza de especies de árboles locales, los autores muestran que la co-limitación por múltiples factores ambientales y antropogénicos causa aumentos más pronunciados en la riqueza con latitud en zonas tropicales versus templadas y boreales. The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is one of the most recognized global patterns of species richness exhibited across a wide range of taxa. Numerous hypotheses have been proposed in the past two centuries to explain LDG, but rigorous tests of the drivers of LDGs have been limited by a lack of high-quality global species richness data. Here we produce a high-resolution (0.025° × 0.025°) map of local tree species richness using a global forest inventory database with individual tree information and local biophysical characteristics from ~1.3 million sample plots. We then quantify drivers of local tree species richness patterns across latitudes. Generally, annual mean temperature was a dominant predictor of tree species richness, which is most consistent with the metabolic theory of biodiversity (MTB). However, MTB underestimated LDG in the tropics, where high species richness was also moderated by topographic, soil and anthropogenic factors operating at local scales. Given that local landscape variables operate synergistically with bioclimatic factors in shaping the global LDG pattern, we suggest that MTB be extended to account for co-limitation by subordinate drivers. Examining drivers of the latitudinal biodiversity gradient in a global database of local tree species richness, the authors show that co-limitation by multiple environmental and anthropogenic factors causes steeper increases in richness with latitude in tropical versus temperate and boreal zones. يعد تدرج التنوع العرضي (LDG) أحد أكثر الأنماط العالمية المعترف بها لثراء الأنواع المعروضة عبر مجموعة واسعة من الأصناف. تم اقتراح العديد من الفرضيات في القرنين الماضيين لشرح غاز الديزل منخفض الكثافة، لكن الاختبارات الصارمة لمحركات غازات الديزل منخفض الكثافة كانت محدودة بسبب نقص بيانات ثراء الأنواع العالمية عالية الجودة. هنا ننتج خريطة عالية الدقة (0.025درجة × 0.025درجة) لثراء أنواع الأشجار المحلية باستخدام قاعدة بيانات جرد الغابات العالمية مع معلومات الأشجار الفردية والخصائص الفيزيائية الحيوية المحلية من حوالي 1.3 مليون قطعة عينة. ثم نحدد العوامل المحركة لأنماط ثراء أنواع الأشجار المحلية عبر خطوط العرض. بشكل عام، كان متوسط درجة الحرارة السنوية مؤشراً مهيمناً على ثراء أنواع الأشجار، وهو الأكثر اتساقاً مع نظرية التمثيل الغذائي للتنوع البيولوجي (MTB). ومع ذلك، قلل MTB من تقدير غاز التدهور المنخفض في المناطق المدارية، حيث كان ثراء الأنواع المرتفع معتدلاً أيضًا بسبب العوامل الطبوغرافية والتربة والعوامل البشرية المنشأ التي تعمل على المستويات المحلية. بالنظر إلى أن متغيرات المناظر الطبيعية المحلية تعمل بشكل تآزري مع العوامل المناخية الحيوية في تشكيل نمط الغازات المتدهورة عالميًا، فإننا نقترح توسيع نطاق الحد الأقصى للمناظر الطبيعية لمراعاة الحد المشترك من قبل الدوافع الثانوية. عند دراسة دوافع تدرج التنوع البيولوجي العرضي في قاعدة بيانات عالمية لثراء أنواع الأشجار المحلية، يوضح المؤلفون أن الحد المشترك من خلال عوامل بيئية وبشرية متعددة يسبب زيادات أكثر حدة في الثراء مع خط العرض في المناطق الاستوائية مقابل المناطق المعتدلة والشمالية.