• Energy Research

Carbon trading is an effective measure for the road transportation to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions. Carbon emission quotas are the primary concern to ensuring the efficiency of carbon trading. However, the existing studies have mostly focused on carbon emission quotas in different regions, i.e., countries and provinces. Few literature studies simulate carbon quota allocation in the road transportation. A novel approach from the perspective of carbon emission intensity of vehicle is proposed, on the basis of data envelopment analysis (DEA) model. Unlike other studies, the idea of allocation of baseline excitation is introduced and the intensity is included in the model as the baseline. Firstly, the Delphi method is employed to select input and output indicators. Secondly, carbon emission intensity is determined by the cumulative distribution function (CDF). Furthermore, the carbon emission quotas in road transportation in 30 provinces of China are used to validate the model. The results show that (1) the carbon emission intensity of commercial trucks and buses in China’s road transport industry is 75.04 g/t·km and 13.12 g/p·km, respectively; (2) the provinces of Shanghai, Guangdong, and Xinjiang have the greatest carbon reduction potential and Henan, Hunan, and Anhui have the largest increase in emission quotas; (3) compared with traditional “history responsibility” and “baseline” methods, the proposed approach increases allocation efficiency by 19% and 14%, respectively; and (4) the approach can make the carbon emission quotas play the role of incentive while taking fairness into account and can more effectively promote the implementation of carbon trading system in road transportation.