• Energy Research

Different combinations of behavioural and physiological responses may play a crucial role in the ecological success of species, notably in the context of biological invasions. The invasive mussel Xenostrobus securis has successfully colonised the inner part of the Galician Rias Baixas (NW Spain), where it co-occurs with the commercially-important mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis. This study investigated the effect of a heatwave on the physiological and behavioural responses in monospecific or mixed aggregations of these species. In a mesocosm experiment, mussels were exposed to simulated tidal cycles and similar temperature conditions to those experienced in the field during a heat-wave that occurred in the summer of 2013, when field robo-mussels registered temperatures up to 44.5°C at low tide. The overall responses to stress differed markedly between the two species. In monospecific aggregations M. galloprovincialis was more vulnerable than X. securis to heat exposure during emersion. However, in mixed aggregations, the presence of the invader was associated with lower mortality in M. galloprovincialis. The greater sensitivity of M. galloprovincialis to heat exposure was reflected in a higher mortality level, greater induction of Hsp70 protein and higher rates of respiration and gaping activity, which were accompanied by a lower heart rate (bradycardia). The findings show that the invader enhanced the physiological performance of M. galloprovincialis, highlighting the importance of species interactions in regulating responses to environmental stress. Understanding the complex interactions between ecological factors and physiological and behavioural responses of closely-related species is essential for predicting the impacts of invasions in the context of future climate change.

Accurate distributional models can be used to reliably predict the response of organisms to climatic changes. Though such models have been extensively applied to terrestrial organisms, they have hardly ever been applied to the marine environment. Recent changes in the distribution of the marine gastropod Patella rustica (L.) were previously modelled with Classification and Regression Tree (CART) and the results revealed that increases in temperature were the major driver of those changes. However, the accuracy scores during the validation of the model were unsatisfactory, preventing its use for forecasting purposes. To fulfil this objective, in the present study a more robust method, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), was employed to produce a model suited to forecasting changes in the distribution of P. rustica. Results confirmed that the ANN model behaved better than the CART, and that it could be used for forecasting future distributional scenarios. The model forecasts that by the 2020s P. rustica is likely to expand its range at least 1000 km northwards. These results should be interpreted with caution considering the dispersal limitations of this species, but if such an expansion took place, major changes in the colonized ecosystems are expected due to the key role of limpets in intertidal communities.

Arctic coastal biodiversity faces increasing threats from anthropogenic activities and climate change. However, the effects on biodiversity are still poorly understood, hindering actions aimed at mitigating the impacts at a pan-Arctic scale. We present the results of a horizon scan that provides a road map to address knowledge gaps on the influence of anthropogenic activities, from increased shipping and harvesting to consequences of climate change including increasing temperatures, cryosphere loss, and freshwater runoff. Predictions on ecological change, species range expansions, and anthropogenic impacts on Arctic coasts are hampered by the lack of biodiversity data and scarcity of biological long-term monitoring programs. Filling these knowledge gaps will require coordinated international efforts and standardized experiments across the diverse ecosystems characterizing the Arctic.

Understanding and forecasting current and future consequences of coastal warming require a fine-scale assessment of the near-shore temperature changes. Here we show that despite the fact that 71% of the world's coastlines are significantly warming, rates of change have been highly heterogeneous both spatially and seasonally. We demonstrate that 46% of the coastlines have experienced a significant decrease in the frequency of extremely cold events, while extremely hot days are becoming more common in 38% of the area. Also, we show that the onset of the warm season is significantly advancing earlier in the year in 36% of the temperate coastal regions. More importantly, it is now possible to analyse local patterns within the global context, which is useful for a broad array of scientific fields, policy makers and general public.

Coastal marine biodiversity within eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS) is closely linked to the cooler sea temperatures associated with them. It has been suggested that global warming could lead to enhanced sea surface cooling in EBUS via the intensification of upwelling-favorable winds. Conversely, increased stratification and the widespread warming of the world’s oceans could drive these systems in the opposite direction. These competing mechanisms hold the potential for driving the thermal envelopes of EBUS toward – or away from – the thermal envelopes found outside EBUS, with likely contrasting implications for biodiversity conservation in each scenario. Here we characterize the patterns of net sea surface warming rates over more than three decades throughout the global ocean to evaluate if waters inside EBUS are changing differently from those outside EBUS. Results point to a trend of reduced warming inside EBUS, especially along the nearshore. We found that reduced net warming was prevalent in Pacific EBUS but restricted in Atlantic EBUS. In contrast, net warming in the coastal ocean outside EBUS was pervasive and generally associated with proximity to land. Our results suggest that EBUS have been responding to climate change differently from the rest of the global ocean, potentially buffering coastal biomes from decades of global warming.

This repository corresponds to the data and scripts required to replicate analysis presented in paper: "Heat Stress on the brown Seaweed Ascophyllum nodosum: differential population sensitivity to future climate." It imports and analysis data on: Growth; Net primary production (Npp); Respiration; Survival; Temperature modellation (In situ via climatic variables); Cummulative-product survivability hindcast and forecast; Population size modellation via survivability models together with demographic matricial data.

AbstractPredicting the extent and direction of species’ range shifts is a major priority for scientists and resource managers. Seminal studies have fostered the notion that biological systems responding to climate change-impacted variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation) should exhibit poleward range shifts but shifts contrary to that expectation have been frequently reported. Understanding whether those shifts are indeed contrary to climate change predictions involves understanding the most basic mechanisms determining the distribution of species. We assessed the patterns of ecologically relevant temperature metrics (e.g., daily range, min, max) along the European Atlantic coast. Temperature metrics have contrasting geographical patterns and latitude or the grand mean are poor predictors for many of them. Our data suggest that unless the appropriate metrics are analysed, the impact of climate change in even a single metric of a single stressor may lead to range shifts in directions that would otherwise be classified as “contrary to prediction”.