• Energy Research

Distribution of Earth’s biomes is structured by the match between climate and plant traits, which in turn shape associated communities and ecosystem processes and services. However, that climate–trait match can be disrupted by historical events, with lasting ecosystem impacts. As Earth’s environment changes faster than at any time in human history, critical questions are whether and how organismal traits and ecosystems can adjust to altered conditions. We quantified the relative importance of current environmental forcing versus evolutionary history in shaping the growth form (stature and biomass) and associated community of eelgrass ( Zostera marina ), a widespread foundation plant of marine ecosystems along Northern Hemisphere coastlines, which experienced major shifts in distribution and genetic composition during the Pleistocene. We found that eelgrass stature and biomass retain a legacy of the Pleistocene colonization of the Atlantic from the ancestral Pacific range and of more recent within-basin bottlenecks and genetic differentiation. This evolutionary legacy in turn influences the biomass of associated algae and invertebrates that fuel coastal food webs, with effects comparable to or stronger than effects of current environmental forcing. Such historical lags in phenotypic acclimatization may constrain ecosystem adjustments to rapid anthropogenic climate change, thus altering predictions about the future functioning of ecosystems.

With over 1 million species on earth, each biologically unique, do we have any hope of understanding whether species will persist in a warming world? We might, because it turns out that there is surprising regularity in how warming accelerates the major metabolic processes that power life. A persistent challenge has been to understand ecological effects of temperature in the context of species interactions, especially when individuals not only experience temperature but also mortality due to parasitism or predation. Kirk et al. have shown how the effects of parasites vary with warming in a manner entirely consistent with general temperature dependence of host and parasite metabolism.

AbstractAs thermal regimes change worldwide, projections of future population and species persistence often require estimates of how population growth rates depend on temperature. These projections rarely account for how temporal variation in temperature can systematically modify growth rates relative to projections based on constant temperatures. Here, we tested the hypothesis that population growth rates in fluctuating thermal environments differ from growth rates in constant conditions, and that the differing thermal performance curves (TPCs) can be predicted quantitatively. With experimental populations of the green alga Tetraselmis tetrahele, we show that nonlinear averaging techniques accurately predicted increased as well as decreased population growth rates in fluctuating thermal regimes relative to constant thermal regimes. We extrapolate from these results to project critical temperatures for population growth and persistence of 89 phytoplankton species in naturally variable thermal environments. These results advance our ability to predict population dynamics in the context of global change.

Aquatic ecosystems worldwide continue to experience unprecedented warming and ecological change. Warming increases metabolic rates of animals, plants, and microbes, accelerating their use of energy and materials, their population growth, and interaction rates. At a much larger biological scale, warming accelerates ecosystem-level processes, elevating fluxes of carbon and oxygen between biota and the atmosphere. Although these general effects of temperature at finer and broader biological scales are widely observed, they can lead to contradictory predictions for how warming affects the structure and function of ecological communities at the intermediate scale of biological organization. We experimentally tested the hypothesis that the presence of predators and their associated species interactions modify the temperature dependence of net ecosystem oxygen production and respiration. We tracked a series of independent freshwater ecosystems (370 L) over 9 weeks, and we found that at higher temperatures, cascading effects of predators on zooplankton prey and algae were stronger than at lower temperatures. When grazing was weak or absent, standing phytoplankton biomass declined by 85%-95% (<1-fold) over the temperature gradient (19-30 °C), and by 3-fold when grazers were present and lacked predators. These temperature-dependent species interactions and consequent community biomass shifts occurred without signs of species loss or community collapse, and only modestly affected the temperature dependence of net ecosystem oxygen fluxes. The exponential increases in net ecosystem oxygen production and consumption were relatively insensitive to differences in trophic interactions among ecosystems. Furthermore, monotonic declines in phytoplankton standing stock suggested no threshold effects of warming across systems. We conclude that local changes in community structure, including temperature-dependent trophic cascades, may be compatible with prevailing and predictable effects of temperature on ecosystem functions related to fundamental effects of temperature on metabolism.

Over broad thermal gradients, the effect of temperature on aerobic respiration and photosynthesis rates explains variation in community structure and function. Yet for local communities, temperature dependent trophic interactions may dominate effects of warming. We tested the hypothesis that food chain length modifies the temperature-dependence of ecosystem fluxes and community structure. In a multi-generation aquatic food web experiment, increasing temperature strengthened a trophic cascade, altering the effect of temperature on estimated mass-corrected ecosystem fluxes. Compared to consumer-free and 3-level food chains, grazer-algae (2-level) food chains responded most strongly to the temperature gradient. Temperature altered community structure, shifting species composition and reducing zooplankton density and body size. Still, food chain length did not alter the temperature dependence of net ecosystem fluxes. We conclude that locally, food chain length interacts with temperature to modify community structure, but only temperature, not food chain length influenced net ecosystem fluxes.