• Energy Research

Regional and global assessments periodically update what we know, and highlight what remains to be known, about the linkages between people and nature that both define and depend upon the state of the environment. To guide research that better informs policy and practice, we systematically synthesize knowledge gaps from recent assessments of four regions of the globe and three key themes by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. We assess their relevance to global sustainability goals and trace their evolution relative to those identified in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. We found that global sustainability goals cannot be achieved without improved knowledge on feedbacks between social and ecological systems, effectiveness of governance systems and the influence of institutions on the social distribution of ecosystem services. These top research priorities have persisted for the 14 years since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Our analysis also reveals limited understanding of the role of indigenous and local knowledge in sustaining nature’s benefits to people. Our findings contribute to a policy-relevant and solution-oriented agenda for global, long-term social-ecological research.

Excess phosphorus loading to waterbodies has led to increasing frequency and severity of harmful algal blooms, negatively impacting economic activity and human health. While interventions to improve water quality can create large societal benefits, these investments are costly and the value of benefits is often unknown. Understanding the social and economic impacts of reduced phosphorus loading is critical for developing effective land use policies and for generating public and political support for these initiatives. Here, we quantify the social benefits and costs of improving water quality in Lake Champlain under a range of phosphorus reduction and climate change scenarios between 2016 and 2050. We use statistical models to link water quality outputs from an established integrated assessment model with three categories of benefits: tourism expenditures, property sales, and avoided human health impacts. We estimate the costs of reducing phosphorus loading using data reported by the State of Vermont. We find that under the most aggressive phosphorus reduction scenario, the total benefits of improved water quality are $55 to $60 million between 2016 and 2050. Over this 35 year time horizon, the combined benefits do not outweigh the costs under any scenario. If the time horizon is extended to 2100 or beyond, however, the benefits may exceed the costs if the applied discount rate is less than 3%. Importantly, we almost certainly underestimate the value of clean water, due to the omission of other types of benefits. Despite this uncertainty, our study provides a tractable framework for disentangling the complex relationships between water quality and human well-being, and illuminates the value of reductions in phosphorus loading to society.

Abstract The combined impacts of climate change and ecological degradation are expected to worsen inequality within society. These dynamics are exemplified by increases in flood risk globally. In general, low‐income and socially vulnerable populations disproportionately bear the cost of flood damages. Climate change is expected to increase the number of people exposed to fluvial flood risk and cause greater property damages. Floodplain restoration has the potential to mitigate these impacts, but the distribution of future risks among different types of property owners under these altered conditions is often unknown. Here, we develop a simple probabilistic approach for estimating flood risk to property owners under floodplain restoration and climate change scenarios for a range of flood recurrence intervals. We apply this approach in the Vermont, USA portion of the Lake Champlain Basin. Over a 100‐year time horizon, we estimate that the value of property damages caused by flood inundation is approximately $2.13 billion under the baseline scenario. Climate change is expected to increase damages to $5.29 billion, a 148% increase; however, floodplain restoration has the potential to reduce these impacts by approximately 20%. For all scenarios, a larger proportion of lower‐value properties, specifically mobile homes, face greater flood risk compared to higher‐value properties. Climate change is expected to cost higher‐value properties and commercial properties more than other types of properties, but these same groups are also expected to benefit most from floodplain restoration. In general, these results raise concern that those least able to prepare for and recover from flood damages are also the people who face the greatest threats. In response, public policy interventions must consider not only where flood risk is most severe, but also the vulnerability of people exposed to such risk. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

CASCADE project “Ecosystem-based Adaptation for smallholder Subsistence and Coffee Farming Communities in Central America”

Abstract Enhancing floral resources is a widely accepted strategy for supporting wild bees and promoting crop pollination. Planning effective enhancements can be informed with pollination service models, but these models should capture the behavioural and spatial dynamics of service‐providing organisms. Model predictions, and hence management recommendations, are likely to be sensitive to these dynamics. We used two established models of pollinator foraging to investigate whether habitat enhancement improves crop visitation; whether this effect is influenced by pollinator foraging distance and landscape pattern; and whether behavioural detail improves model predictions. The more detailed central place foraging model better predicted variation in bee visitation observed between habitat types, because it includes optimized trade‐offs between patch quality and distance. Both models performed well when predicting visitation rates across broader scales. Using real agricultural landscapes and simulating habitat enhancements, we show that additional floral resources can have diverging effects on predicted crop visitation. When only co‐flowering resources were added, optimally foraging bees concentrated in enhancements to the detriment of crop pollination. For both models, adding nesting resources increased crop visitation. Finally, the marginal effect of enhancements was greater in simple landscapes. Synthesis and applications. Model results help to identify the conditions under which habitat enhancements are most likely to increase pollination services in agriculture. Three design principles for pollinator habitat enhancement emerge: (a) enhancing only flowers can diminish services by distracting pollinators away from crops, (b) providing nesting resources is more likely to increase bee populations and crop visitation and (c) the benefit of enhancements will be greatest in landscapes that do not already contain abundant habitat.

1. The combined impacts of climate change and ecological degradation are expected to worsen inequality within society. These dynamics are exemplified by increases in flood risk globally. In general, low-income and socially vulnerable populations disproportionately bear the cost of flood damages. Climate change is expected to increase the number of people exposed to fluvial flood risk and cause greater property damages. Floodplain restoration has the potential to mitigate these impacts, but the distribution of future risks among different types of property owners under these altered conditions is often unknown.2. Here, we develop a simple probabilistic approach for estimating flood risk to property owners under floodplain restoration and climate change scenarios for a range of flood recurrence intervals. We apply this approach in the Vermont, USA portion of the Lake Champlain Basin.3. Over a 100-year time horizon, we estimate that the value of property damages caused by flood inundation is approximately $2.13 billion under the baseline scenario. Climate change is expected to increase damages to $5.29 billion, a 148% increase; however, floodplain restoration has the potential to reduce these impacts by approximately 20%.4. For all scenarios, a larger proportion of lower-value properties, specifically mobile homes, face greater flood risk compared to higher value properties. Climate change is expected to cost higher-value properties and commercial properties more than other types of properties, but these same groups are also expected to benefit most from floodplain restoration. 5. In general, these results raise concern that those least able to prepare for and recover from flood damages are also the people who face the greatest threats. In response, public policy interventions must consider not only where flood risk is most severe, but also the vulnerability of people exposed to such risk.