• Energy Research

The Itacaiúnas River basin, an important watershed for the mining sector in Brazil, has had 51% of its native forest area deforested in the last forty years. It is in the arc of deforestation of the Amazon. It has protected areas essential to local biodiversity maintenance, in addition to owning ore reserves. Here, we present the first study to assess the mean annual, seasonal, and spatialized hydrological processes, providing results on a detailed scale in the basin, including mining sites. We used five future projections of mean monthly temperature and daily precipitation as input to the MGB hydrological model to simulate how hydrological processes, such as evapotranspiration, water availability, and high flows, may change in the next 30 years. The future decrease in precipitation (−8%) and increase in temperature (10%) may strengthen the monsoon seasonal cycle and lengthen the dry month for evapotranspiration. Furthermore, some parts of the basin expect an increase in the high flows (8.1%) and a decrease in water availability (−93.6%). These results provide subsidies to develop adaptation strategies to ensure the viability of mining operations and safeguard the surrounding environment and communities.

Nature’s contributions to people (NCP) are increasingly being considered in decisions by policy-makers because of their relevance to the well-being of people. Learning the value of nature from the perception of communities can help to define priorities and to guide the development of public policies for environmental conservation. The objective of this study was to analyze the perception of the importance, benefits, and problems of NCP among residents of five rural communities, and their opinion about the protected areas of the municipality, considering their socioeconomic characteristics. The method consisted of conducting questionnaire-based, semi-structured, face-to-face interviews with a sample of 214 randomly selected households in five rural communities of Parauapebas (Pará, Eastern Amazon). We used appropriate statistical tests for data analysis. The main results show that the communities were highly homogeneous and that 52% of the households had low income (below a minimum wage of USD 250). A high proportion of respondents gave the highest importance to all categories of NCP (2/3 of respondents for material, 3/4 for non-material, and 4/5 for regulating NCP). The most commonly mentioned benefits of NCP referred to subsistence or livelihood and quality of life (40% of total mentions). Environmental degradation problems were the most cited (38% of total mentions). Almost all respondents stated that they had a positive opinion about the protected areas of the municipality, despite underusing them. This study is relevant because it analyses, for the first time, the perceptions of NCP among residents of rural communities in the Eastern Amazon, an essential aspect for decision-and public policy-making.

In the semiarid region of Northeastern Brazil, populations of native bees can be jeopardized by future climate change. The present study aims to analyze the impact of climate change on a native stingless bee (Melipona subnitida Ducke). This species is a locally important pollinator of wild and crop plants, also exploited for honey production by regional beekeepers. Using species distributional modeling, we assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of M. subnitida. We found a potential shift in future areas where species can find climatically suitable habitats toward the edges of the current pollinator distribution with a consequent central disconnection, which can threaten species dispersal and gene flow. We propose to reconnect the remaining suitable areas through conservation and restoration programs based on the distribution of the plant species that are used by this bee as source of pollen and nectar and propose also, other strategies that aim to increase the welfare of local people

La pollinisation animale peut avoir un impact sur la sécurité alimentaire car de nombreuses cultures dépendent des pollinisateurs pour produire des fruits et des graines. Cependant, les effets du changement climatique projeté sur les pollinisateurs de cultures et donc sur la production végétale ne sont pas encore clairs, en particulier pour les pollinisateurs sauvages et les réponses communautaires globales. À l'aide de la modélisation de la répartition des espèces, nous avons évalué les effets du changement climatique sur la répartition géographique de 95 espèces de pollinisateurs de 13 cultures brésiliennes, et nous avons estimé leurs impacts relatifs sur la production végétale. Nous avons décrit ces effets au niveau de la municipalité, et nous avons évalué les cultures qui ont été cultivées, le volume de production brute de ces cultures, la valeur totale de la production végétale et le nombre d'habitants. Dans l'ensemble, en tenant compte de toutes les espèces cultivées, nous avons constaté que le changement climatique prévu réduira la probabilité d'occurrence des pollinisateurs de près de 0,13 d'ici 2050. Nos modèles prédisent que près de 90 % des municipalités analysées seront confrontées à la perte d'espèces. Les diminutions de la probabilité d'occurrence des pollinisateurs ont varié de 0,08 (kaki) à 0,25 (tomate) et affecteront potentiellement 9 % (mandarine) à 100 % (tournesol) des municipalités qui produisent chaque culture. Les municipalités du centre et du sud du Brésil seront potentiellement confrontées à des impacts relativement importants sur la production agricole en raison de la perte de pollinisateurs. En revanche, certaines municipalités du nord du Brésil, en particulier dans le nord-ouest de l'Amazonie, pourraient potentiellement bénéficier du changement climatique car les pollinisateurs de certaines cultures pourraient augmenter. La baisse de la probabilité d'occurrence des pollinisateurs se trouve dans un grand nombre de municipalités ayant le PIB le plus faible et affectera également probablement certains endroits où la production agricole est élevée (20 % à 90 % du PIB) et où le nombre d'habitants est également élevé (plus de 6 millions de personnes). Notre étude met en évidence les municipalités clés où les cultures sont économiquement importantes et où les pollinisateurs seront potentiellement confrontés aux pires conditions en raison du changement climatique. Cependant, les pollinisateurs peuvent être en mesure de trouver de nouvelles zones appropriées qui ont le potentiel d'améliorer la production végétale. Les résultats présentés ici pourraient guider les décisions politiques en matière d'adaptation au changement climatique et de prévention de la perte d'espèces pollinisatrices et de production végétale. La polinización animal puede afectar a la seguridad alimentaria, ya que muchos cultivos dependen de los polinizadores para producir frutos y semillas. Sin embargo, los efectos del cambio climático proyectado en los polinizadores de cultivos y, por lo tanto, en la producción de cultivos aún no están claros, especialmente para los polinizadores silvestres y las respuestas agregadas de la comunidad. Utilizando modelos de distribución de especies, evaluamos los efectos del cambio climático en la distribución geográfica de 95 especies polinizadoras de 13 cultivos brasileños, y estimamos sus impactos relativos en la producción de cultivos. Describimos estos efectos a nivel de municipio, y evaluamos los cultivos que se cultivaron, el volumen de producción bruta de estos cultivos, el valor total de la producción de cultivos y el número de habitantes. En general, considerando todas las especies de cultivos, encontramos que el cambio climático proyectado reducirá la probabilidad de ocurrencia de polinizadores en casi 0.13 para 2050. Nuestros modelos predicen que casi el 90% de los municipios analizados se enfrentarán a la pérdida de especies. Las disminuciones en la probabilidad de ocurrencia de polinizadores variaron de 0.08 (caqui) a 0.25 (tomate) y potencialmente afectarán del 9% (mandarina) al 100% (girasol) de los municipios que producen cada cultivo. Los municipios del centro y sur de Brasil potencialmente enfrentarán impactos relativamente grandes en la producción de cultivos debido a la pérdida de polinizadores. Por el contrario, algunos municipios del norte de Brasil, particularmente en el noroeste de la Amazonía, podrían beneficiarse del cambio climático porque los polinizadores de algunos cultivos pueden aumentar. La disminución en la probabilidad de ocurrencia de polinizadores se encuentra en un gran número de municipios con el PIB más bajo y también es probable que afecte a algunos lugares donde la producción de cultivos es alta (20% a 90% del PIB) y donde el número de habitantes también es alto (más de 6 millones de personas). Nuestro estudio destaca los municipios clave donde los cultivos son económicamente importantes y donde los polinizadores enfrentarán potencialmente las peores condiciones debido al cambio climático. Sin embargo, los polinizadores pueden ser capaces de encontrar nuevas áreas adecuadas que tienen el potencial de mejorar la producción de cultivos. Los resultados que se muestran aquí podrían guiar las decisiones políticas para adaptarse al cambio climático y para prevenir la pérdida de especies polinizadoras y la producción de cultivos. Animal pollination can impact food security since many crops depend on pollinators to produce fruits and seeds. However, the effects of projected climate change on crop pollinators and therefore on crop production are still unclear, especially for wild pollinators and aggregate community responses. Using species distributional modeling, we assessed the effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of 95 pollinator species of 13 Brazilian crops, and we estimated their relative impacts on crop production. We described these effects at the municipality level, and we assessed the crops that were grown, the gross production volume of these crops, the total crop production value, and the number of inhabitants. Overall, considering all crop species, we found that the projected climate change will reduce the probability of pollinator occurrence by almost 0.13 by 2050. Our models predict that almost 90% of the municipalities analyzed will face species loss. Decreases in the pollinator occurrence probability varied from 0.08 (persimmon) to 0.25 (tomato) and will potentially affect 9% (mandarin) to 100% (sunflower) of the municipalities that produce each crop. Municipalities in central and southern Brazil will potentially face relatively large impacts on crop production due to pollinator loss. In contrast, some municipalities in northern Brazil, particularly in the northwestern Amazon, could potentially benefit from climate change because pollinators of some crops may increase. The decline in the probability of pollinator occurrence is found in a large number of municipalities with the lowest GDP and will also likely affect some places where crop production is high (20% to 90% of the GDP) and where the number of inhabitants is also high (more than 6 million people). Our study highlights key municipalities where crops are economically important and where pollinators will potentially face the worst conditions due to climate change. However, pollinators may be able to find new suitable areas that have the potential to improve crop production. The results shown here could guide policy decisions for adapting to climate change and for preventing the loss of pollinator species and crop production. يمكن أن يؤثر التلقيح الحيواني على الأمن الغذائي لأن العديد من المحاصيل تعتمد على الملقحات لإنتاج الفواكه والبذور. ومع ذلك، فإن آثار تغير المناخ المتوقع على ملقحات المحاصيل وبالتالي على إنتاج المحاصيل لا تزال غير واضحة، خاصة بالنسبة للملقحات البرية والاستجابات المجتمعية الكلية. باستخدام النمذجة التوزيعية للأنواع، قمنا بتقييم آثار تغير المناخ على التوزيع الجغرافي لـ 95 نوعًا من الملقحات لـ 13 محصولًا برازيليًا، وقمنا بتقدير آثارها النسبية على إنتاج المحاصيل. وصفنا هذه الآثار على مستوى البلدية، وقمنا بتقييم المحاصيل التي تمت زراعتها، وحجم الإنتاج الإجمالي لهذه المحاصيل، والقيمة الإجمالية لإنتاج المحاصيل، وعدد السكان. بشكل عام، بالنظر إلى جميع أنواع المحاصيل، وجدنا أن التغير المناخي المتوقع سيقلل من احتمال حدوث الملقحات بنحو 0.13 بحلول عام 2050. تتنبأ نماذجنا بأن ما يقرب من 90 ٪ من البلديات التي تم تحليلها ستواجه فقدان الأنواع. تراوح الانخفاض في احتمال حدوث الملقحات من 0.08 (البرسيمون) إلى 0.25 (الطماطم) ومن المحتمل أن يؤثر على 9 ٪ (الماندرين) إلى 100 ٪ (عباد الشمس) من البلديات التي تنتج كل محصول. من المحتمل أن تواجه البلديات في وسط وجنوب البرازيل تأثيرات كبيرة نسبيًا على إنتاج المحاصيل بسبب فقدان الملقحات. وعلى النقيض من ذلك، يمكن لبعض البلديات في شمال البرازيل، ولا سيما في شمال غرب الأمازون، أن تستفيد من تغير المناخ لأن الملقحات لبعض المحاصيل قد تزيد. تم العثور على انخفاض في احتمال حدوث الملقحات في عدد كبير من البلديات ذات أدنى ناتج محلي إجمالي ومن المحتمل أيضًا أن يؤثر على بعض الأماكن التي يكون فيها إنتاج المحاصيل مرتفعًا (20 ٪ إلى 90 ٪ من الناتج المحلي الإجمالي) وحيث يكون عدد السكان مرتفعًا أيضًا (أكثر من 6 ملايين شخص). تسلط دراستنا الضوء على البلديات الرئيسية حيث المحاصيل مهمة اقتصاديًا وحيث من المحتمل أن تواجه الملقحات أسوأ الظروف بسبب تغير المناخ. ومع ذلك، قد تتمكن الملقحات من العثور على مناطق مناسبة جديدة لديها القدرة على تحسين إنتاج المحاصيل. يمكن للنتائج الموضحة هنا أن توجه قرارات السياسة للتكيف مع تغير المناخ ومنع فقدان أنواع الملقحات وإنتاج المحاصيل.

Ecosystem services provided by mobile agents are increasingly threatened by the loss and modification of natural habitats and by climate change, risking the maintenance of biodiversity, ecosystem functions, and human welfare. Research oriented towards a better understanding of the joint effects of land use and climate change over the provision of specific ecosystem services is therefore essential to safeguard such services. Here we propose a methodological framework, which integrates species distribution forecasts and graph theory to identify key conservation areas, which if protected or restored could improve habitat connectivity and safeguard ecosystem services. We applied the proposed framework to the provision of pollination services by a tropical stingless bee (Melipona quadrifasciata), a key pollinator of native flora from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest and important agricultural crops. Based on the current distribution of this bee and that of the plant species used to feed and nest, we projected the joint distribution of bees and plants in the future, considering a moderate climate change scenario (following IPPC). We then used this information, the bee's flight range, and the current mapping of Atlantic Forest remnants to infer habitat suitability and quantify local and regional habitat connectivity for 2030, 2050 and 2080. Our results revealed north to south and coastal to inland shifts in the pollinator distribution during the next 70 years. Current and future connectivity maps unraveled the most important corridors, which if protected or restored, could facilitate the dispersal and establishment of bees during distribution shifts. Our results also suggest that coffee plantations from eastern São Paulo and southern Minas Gerais States could suffer a pollinator deficit in the future, whereas pollination services seem to be secured in southern Brazil. Landowners and governmental agencies could use this information to implement new land use schemes. Overall, our proposed methodological framework could help design novel conservational and agricultural practices that can be crucial to conserve ecosystem services by buffering the joint effect of habitat configuration and climate change.

Anthropogenic-induced climate change has already altered the conditions to which species have adapted locally, and consequently, shifts of occurrence areas have been previously reported (Chen et al. 2011). Anticipating the results of climate change is urgent, and using these results efficiently to guide decision-making can help to build strategies to protect species from those changes. Therefore, our objective is to propose the use of climate change impact assessments, obtained through species distribution models (SDMs), to guide decision making. The emphasis will be on data that could help determine the potentially vulnerable species and the priority areas, which could act as climate refuges, as well as wildlife corridors. SDMs are based on species occurrence points, available mainly from biological collections and observations (Franklin 2010). When combined with geospatially explicit layers of abiotic or biotic data (e. g. temperature, precipitation, land use), which defines the ecological requirements of species under study, it can generate species distribution models. These models are projected in the form of maps indicating areas where the species can find the most suitable habitats and, therefore, where one can most likely find them. To support public policies decision, the generation of robust and reliable model is an important factor. A minimum number of six occurrence points is a mandatory requirement, with non-overlapping area as a filter criteria. Unfortunatelly, in Brasil, as well as in Latin America in general, this type of data is scarce. Thus, with SDMs, four types of decision making information data regarding priority species and areas could be obtained (Fig. 1). Size of potential occurrence areas: species that have a small area of occurrence are potentially vulnerable, since they present endemism, usually living in restricted environmental conditions. In this case, any small change in environmental conditions can result in the extinction of the impacted species. Thus, this region needs to be protected. Difference between current and future area: species presenting the most significant reduction in potential areas should be prioritized by decision-makers. This measurement could be used as an indication of vulnerability. Even species that have no predicted area reduction or an increase could be prioritized in management programs due to its role in the complex interaction networks of ecosystem services, such as pollinators, seed dispersers or disease control. These species could be more resilient to network interaction changes due climate, and possibly are better able to provide their services in the extreme unfavorable climate scenarios. Areas that maintain higher species diversity in future scenarios: their protection could be prioritized in restoration and conservation programs. Especially in cases involving multiple species, those areas could be considered as climate refuges by decision-makers. Additionally, for the reconstruction and use of SDM published in peer-reviewed journals, it is necessary that all pieces of information about models, its generation, ensemble methods, data cleaning and data quality criteria applied should be available. The availability of the four above mentioned types of information can help on decision-making strategies aiming the protection of priority species and areas. In conclusion, SDMs present essential information about the present and future impacts of projected climate change and their derived data could be preserved using a standard controlled vocabulary.

Although the impacts of climate change on biodiversity are increasing worldwide, few studies have attempted to forecast these impacts on Amazon Tropical Forest. In this study, we estimated the impact of climate change on Amazonian avian assemblages considering range shifts, species loss, vulnerability of ecosystem functioning, future effectiveness of current protected areas and potential climatically stable areas for conservation actions. Species distribution modelling based on two algorithms and three different scenarios of climate change was used to forecast 501 avian species, organized on main ecosystem functions (frugivores, insectivores and nectarivores) for years 2050 and 2070. Considering the entire study area, we estimated that between 4 and 19% of the species will find no suitable habitat. Inside the currently established protected areas, species loss could be over 70%. Our results suggest that frugivores are the most sensitive guild, which could bring consequences on seed dispersal functions and on natural regeneration. Moreover, we identified the western and northern parts of the study area as climatically stable. Climate change will potentially affect avian assemblages in southeastern Amazonia with detrimental consequences to their ecosystem functions. Information provided here is essential to conservation practitioners and decision makers to help on planning their actions.