• Energy Research

AbstractThe Atmospheric River (AR) Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is a community effort to systematically assess how the uncertainties from AR detectors (ARDTs) impact our scientific understanding of ARs. This study describes the ARTMIP Tier 2 experimental design and initial results using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phases 5 and 6 multi‐model ensembles. We show that AR statistics from a given ARDT in CMIP5/6 historical simulations compare remarkably well with the MERRA‐2 reanalysis. In CMIP5/6 future simulations, most ARDTs project a global increase in AR frequency, counts, and sizes, especially along the western coastlines of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. We find that the choice of ARDT is the dominant contributor to the uncertainty in projected AR frequency when compared with model choice. These results imply that new projects investigating future changes in ARs should explicitly consider ARDT uncertainty as a core part of the experimental design.

AbstractEnhanced rock weathering (ERW) on croplands has emerged as an economically and ecologically promising negative emissions technology. However, estimated total carbon sequestration potential from ERW on croplands and its potential sensitivity to climate conditions requires further understanding. Here we combine 1‐D reactive transport modeling with climate model experiments to simulate ERW on ∼1,000 agricultural sites globally. Applying a fixed rate of 10 tons of basalt dust per hectare on these sites sequesters 64 gigatons of CO2 over a 75‐year period; when extrapolated to all agricultural land, ERW sequesters 217 gigatons of CO2 over the same time interval. However, we find that a significant fraction of applied basalt does not weather even on a multidecadal timescale, indicating the need to optimize application strategies for cost effectiveness. We find that ERW becomes modestly more effective with global warming and predict that the payback period for a given ERW deployment is significantly shorter in hot and humid environments currently coinciding with relatively low per‐capita incomes. These results provide strong impetus for investment in agricultural reform in developing economies and highlight an additional potential co‐benefit of ERW.