• Energy Research

Abstract Cost reduction of electric vehicles (EVs), which depends largely on their most cost-intensive component, the battery, is the prerequisite for their market success. To achieve this cost reduction, accurate and detailed cost forecasts are necessary to make the right operational and strategic decisions like focusing on the right technology, product design, or process steps. Driven by this, numerous cost models were developed in recent years. The study at hand gives a systematic overview of the scientific publications within this research field and therefore provides researchers, industry representatives and policy makers with an overview of the benefits, reliability and transparency of the models studied. A total of 633 publications were initially identified. Conducting a systematic pre-selection, we selected the 21 most relevant ones which were analyzed in detail based on 17 characteristics. These characteristics were categorized and discussed in 6 main areas, namely impact of cost models, used cost estimation technique, model architecture and transparency, technology parameters, technical and operational depth of the calculation model, as well as the reported costs. In addition, five major recommendations for future research were derived.

This review analyzes 53 publications that forecast battery cost and provides transparency on methodological and technological details.

Abstract Cost-efficient battery cell manufacturing is a topic of intense discussion in both industry and academia, as battery costs are crucial for the market success of electrical vehicles (EVs). Based on forecasted EV growth rates, battery cell manufacturers are investing billions of dollars in new battery cell plants. Whether these billion-dollar investments are economically viable depends on the materialization of forecasted EV growth rates and company-specific competitive market positions. For both, cost-efficient battery cell manufacturing is key for success. To ensure cost-efficient battery cell manufacturing, transparency is necessary regarding overall manufacturing costs, their cost drivers, and the monetary value of potential cost reductions. Driven by these requirements, a cost model for a large-scale battery cell factory is developed. The model relies on the process-based cost modelling technique (PBCM) and includes more than 250 parameters. Based on this cost model, directions are provided, how minimum costs can be achieved reflecting current and future state of technology. Further, it is outlined which process steps and cost elements have the greatest impact on total cost and should thus be focused within future cost reduction activities.

Lithium-ion batteries are currently the most advanced electrochemical energy storage technology due to a favourable balance of performance and cost properties. Driven by forecasted growth of the electric vehicles market, the cell production capacity for this technology is continuously being scaled up. However, the demand for better performance, particularly higher energy densities and/or lower costs, has triggered research into post-lithium-ion technologies such as solid-state lithium metal, lithium–sulfur and lithium–air batteries as well as post-lithium technologies such as sodium-ion batteries. Currently, these technologies are being intensively studied with regard to material chemistry and cell design. In this Review, we expand on the current knowledge in this field. Starting with a market outlook and an analysis of technological differences, we discuss the manufacturing processes of these technologies. For each technology, we describe anode production, cathode production, cell assembly and conditioning. We then evaluate the manufacturing compatibility of each technology with the lithium-ion production infrastructure and discuss the implications for processing costs. Tremendous research progress has been made in the development of post-lithium-ion batteries (PLIBs), yet there is little discussion on the manufacturing of these upcoming technologies. In this Review, the authors survey the current production status of several representative PLIBs and offer an industrial-scale manufacturing outlook.